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Fay Could Dump Rain For Days; Chance Of Strengthening Exists

Storm Could Be Threatening Fla. Again From Atlantic

POSTED: Tuesday, August 19, 2008
UPDATED: 3:43 pm EDT August 19, 2008

Heavy rain being dumped on Central Florida could continue for days as Tropical Storm Fay moves toward the Atlantic for another chance to strengthen and threaten Florida again.


IMAGES: Projected Paths Of Movement
CELL ALERTS: Text "Fay" to 42363 (rates may apply)

"The worse thing that can happen is that people forget about Fay and deal with the rain showers as they happen and say the weekend is coming," Local 6 meteorologist Eric Wilson said.

The National Hurricane Center's path of projected movement showed the storm slowing and moving through Melbourne.

"That is the first time I've seen the official track bend out into the Atlantic and that is important," Wilson said.

Wilson said trends show Fay could gain strength and become a hurricane if it moves into the Atlantic.

"Indications are she is going to strengthen in the Atlantic and we are just going to have to hit the reset button and find out whether she comes back as a hurricane," Wilson said. "That is where the trend is. There is a question mark when it comes to Thursday and Friday. Does she stay on this path and leave us alone?"

The VIPIR computer model that handled Fay the best before it made landfall in Florida shows the storm possibly reaching hurricane status and moving into north Florida.

A northern path could be problematic for Georgia later this week, Wilson said.

"This very well could affect our Thursday and Friday, especially into the weekend," Wilson said.

Fay Brings Threat Of Tornado

Meanwhile, Fay continued to bring a chance for tornadoes in Central Florida Tuesday.

"It is going to be a heavy rainmaker," Wilson said. "There isn't -- generally speaking -- a whole lot of lightning with this. The severe weather comes with the threat of tornadoes."

The storm could bring winds of up to 65 mph in Southeast Orange County, Osceola County and anywhere from Titusville to Melbourne Tuesday night at 8 p.m.

The system's movement was about 15 mph when it made landfall at Marco Island and was forecast to continue to slow down during the day Tuesday.

"Tropical Storm Fay remains a tropical storm throughout its duration," Wilson said. "That means for the next several hours, it just lingers around Osceola and Polk counties before later tonight into the overnight hours tomorrow morning into Orange County and northern Brevard County."

Storm Lost Intensity Before Landfall

The system did not make landfall with the expected intensity.

"This storm did not intensify at all," Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells said. "I really thought we would wake up with a strong, strong, raging tropical storm or even a hurricane. It did not come through. The big threat is not going to be the wind associated with the core of this system, but the twisters flying out of these feeder bands as we go through the daytime hours today."

"Our (projected) wind-field is not as great as initially thought," Local 6 meteorologist Eric Wilson said.

The National Hurricane Center's path of project movement showed the storm growing into a category 1 storm before landfall near Fort Myers, with a large part of Central Florida feeling tropical storm-force winds.

In fact, Monday night's forecast had the eye of the storm coming over Orlando with strong winds.

"Tropical storm-force winds associated with the system only make it to southern Brevard County instead over overrunning the entire viewing area," Sorrells said. "Then, as we go on into the day, much of the tropical storm-force winds will be confined to east Orange County down to the south. So, if you are watching from Sumter, Lake and Marion counties, it's looking more and more likely -- unless you get hit by a feeder ban -- you are going to turn out with a pretty decent day."

Wilson said the heavy rain should arrive in Central Florida in Osceola and Polk County by Tuesday at 4 p.m.

Also, the storm could drop 10 inches of rain in Melbourne and 8 inches of rain in Daytona.

"It is still very much (Central Florida's) problem," Sorrells said.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this developing story.

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