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Rita Downgraded To Cat. 4 Storm

POSTED: Thursday, September 22, 2005
UPDATED: 5:13 pm EDT September 22, 2005

The latest projected path of Hurricane Rita shifted east Thursday, pushing the storm on a track toward the Houston or Galveston areas, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.

Rita was the third strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic before it weakened but it could still be the strongest hurricane on record to ever hit Texas, according to forecasters.

"This is really a historic storm," Mowry said. "The strength that it has gained in the last 24 hours is remarkable. It's probably never been seen before in the history of hurricanes, at least since we have been recording them."

Rita is expected to continue to move to the north and west through Thursday.

"The track has changed a little bit compared to Wednesday," Mowry said. "It shifted a little more off to the east. Right now, landfall is projected to be close to Galveston or Houston early Saturday. We are thinking landfall will be around 2 a.m."

"This thing is bound for a date with the Texas coast line and where ever it goes, there will be devastation if it remains the monster storm that it is now," Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells said. "And there is every reason to believe it will remain this strong or almost this strong."

Rita is expected to drop in intensity before it makes landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center. There are some indications that the storm may weaken Thursday.

"The cloud tops are actually warming a bit, which tells us that the storm may be losing just a little bit of strength and at this point we will take what ever we can get," Mowry said. "What is likely happening is that it is sucking in some dry air across the United States and it is being wrapped into the western side of the storm. We may see a little weakening today but this is still going to be a major hurricane by the time it reaches Texas early Saturday."

Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

At 5 p.m., the center of Rita was located near latitude 25.8 north, longitude 89.5 west or about 405 miles southeast of Galveston and about 390 miles east-southeast of Port Arthur.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 145 mph with higher gusts. Rita is now a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph.

Warnings

Thursday, a hurricane watch is extended eastward along the Louisiana coast to Intracoastal City. Also, a A hurricane watch is now in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast from Port Mansfield to Intracoastal City, La.

A hurricane warning will likely be required for portions of the hurricane watch area later Thursday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area during the next 24 hours

A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the hurricane watch area, from east of Intracoastal City to Morgan City and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville.

Evacuations

As Gov. Rick Perry urged residents along the state's entire coast to begin evacuating well in advance of Rita's predicted Saturday landfall, New Orleans braced for the possibility that the storm could swamp the misery-stricken city all over again.

Galveston, Corpus Christi and surrounding Nueces County, low-lying parts of Houston, and New Orleans were under mandatory evacuation orders as Category 5 Rita drew energy from balmy gulf waters.

"It's not worth staying here," said Celia Martinez as she and several relatives finished packing up their homes and pets to head to Houston. "Life is more important than things."

The U.S. mainland has never been hit by both a Category 4 and a Category 5 in the same season. Katrina at one point became a Category 5 storm, but weakened slightly to a Category 4 just before coming ashore.

In the Galveston-Houston-Corpus Christi area, about 1.3 million people were under orders to get out, in addition to 20,000 or more along with the Louisiana coast. Special attention was given to hospitals and nursing homes, three weeks after scores of sick and elderly patients in the New Orleans area drowned in Katrina's floodwaters or died in the stifling heat while waiting to be rescued.

Galveston was already a virtual ghost town. The city's lone hospital was evacuated along with residents of a six-story retirement home.

The coastal city of 58,000 on an island 8 feet above sea level was nearly wiped off the map in 1900 when an unnamed hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000. It remains the nation's worst natural disaster.

City Manager Steve LeBlanc said the storm surge could reach 50 feet. Galveston is protected by a seawall that is only 17 feet tall.

In Houston, the state's largest city and home to the highest concentration of Katrina refugees, geography makes evacuation particularly tricky. While many hurricane-prone cities are right on the coast, Houston is 60 miles inland, so a coastal suburban area of 2 million people must evacuate through a metropolitan area of 4 million people where the freeways are often clogged under the best of circumstances.

Officials in Corpus Christi were also preparing to load up about 100 buses Thursday morning to evacuate people who have no other way to get out.

Meanwhile, the death toll from Katrina passed the 1,000 mark Wednesday in five Gulf Coast states. The body count in Louisiana alone was put at nearly 800, most found in the receding floodwaters of New Orleans.

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851.

The record is 21 tropical storms in 1933. Six hurricanes have hit Florida in the last 13 months.

The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Watch Tom Sorrells, Larry Mowry and Michele Cimino for more on this story.

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