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Bucs-Raiders Finale Has Both Importance And Intrigue

(Sports Network) - It's not just the Florida weather anymore.

Though he's already got division titles, playoff appearances and a Super Bowl championship on his resume with Tampa Bay, Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden can't be blamed if hes feeling heat of the non-thermometer variety on the final weekend of the 2008 season.

Winners of the NFC South with a 9-7 mark a year ago, Gruden and Co. seemed on the way to an impressive repeat with nine wins in 12 games this time around, before an untimely three-week skid squandered both the division title chance and possibly the postseason as a whole.

The Buccaneers enter a curtain-dropping date with the Oakland Raiders - whom Gruden coached to 38 wins in four seasons from 1998-2001 - needing both a non-loss and a Christmas miracle's worth of help to reach the promised land for the fourth time in seven years.

Against the visiting Silver and Black, Tampa Bay can punch its ticket via any one of the following five scenarios, courtesy of the NFL's intrepid crew of late-December stat geeks:

1. Tampa Bay wins and Dallas loses or ties at Philadelphia 2. Tampa Bay ties and Dallas loses and Minnesota loses or ties against the New York Giants 3. Tampa Bay ties and Dallas loses and Chicago loses or ties at Houston 4. Tampa Bay ties and Dallas ties and Minnesota ties and Chicago wins or ties 5. Tampa Bay ties and Dallas ties and Chicago ties and Minnesota wins or ties.

Of course - because the lesser-known sixth scenario includes something about virgins being sacrificed, woodpeckers speaking Chinese and hell freezing over -- all at the same time - Buccaneers fans are being advised to hang their hats on some sliver of the initial quintet.

"I think we win our game Sunday and see what happens," linebacker Derrick Brooks said. "Obviously we did not want to have this type of letdown as a team. That's the bigger point at this point of the season. We have, and I don't have all the answers. At the end of the day it's a culmination of several things. But we've not been our best these last three games, and we lost, but we've still been blessed with a chance. All we can do is take advantage of the chance."

Truth told, this the latest in a sorry series of Decembers for Gruden on the Gulf Coast, including three losses in each of the last three seasons and a 13-19 overall mark in December/playoff games since he came on board in 2002.

In 2008 alone, the Bucs have suffered divisional losses at Carolina (38-23) and at Atlanta (13-10 in overtime), along with a home loss to San Diego (41-24) last week.

"It's on me obviously. It's not good enough," Gruden said. "I take pride in preparing a football team. If you want to evaluate all (32) games I'm sure I can defend myself a little bit better. But statistics are what they are. The reality is, that's not very good."

The Raiders, meanwhile, have been heavy on the rough and light on the diamonds.

Oakland was a mediocre 1-3 through the season's initial quarter in September, again 1-3 in the second quarter between October 12 and November 2 and went 1-3 again from November 9-30.

December has continued in much the same fashion, with losses at San Diego and home to New England followed up by an intermittently positive defeat of Houston last week at McAfee Coliseum.

In fact, the team hasn't won more than five games in any one season since losing to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII.

That said, the Raiders are getting some motivation from an unusual source for this week's "rematch" - a hope to short-circuit the playoff trip of Tampa Bay and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, whose son, Lane, was fired as the Raiders head coach earlier this season.

The elder Kiffin will leave the Bucs after the season to join his son's staff at the University of Tennessee.

"There's been a lot of talk about the Kiffins," Gruden said Wednesday. "Lane Kiffin, the former head coach of the Raiders, Monte Kiffin, leaving here to go to Tennessee. So, there are people going to be talking about that, more so than when I was (in Oakland). There has been a lot of water going under the bridge.

There seems to be some people that want to say that I had a bad experience (in Oakland). I didn't have a bad experience there. I had a good experience there. We won a lot of games. We had a lot of good players, so I can't really comment on what's happened since I've been gone. It's been a long time."

SERIES HISTORY

The Raiders have a 5-1 lead in their all-time regular season series against the Buccaneers, including a 30-20 home victory when the teams last met, in 2004. The Bucs' lone win in the regular season series came in 1996, a 20-17 overtime affair that also marks the only meeting between the teams in Tampa.

The most memorable matchup between the clubs was Super Bowl XXXVII from San Diego, which resulted in a 48-21 Buccaneers victory.

Gruden is 1-1 against the team he coached from 1998 through 2001, including the Super Bowl victory. The Raiders' Tom Cable will be meeting both Gruden and the Bucs for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

In his past two games, quarterback JaMarcus Russell has completed 35-of-57 passes for 478 yards with four touchdowns, one interception and a 104.3 passer rating. Running back Justin Fargas has averaged 80.4 rush yards per game in his past five, and in his past two games, rookie back Darren McFadden has 201 total yards (92 rushing, 109 receiving). Big-play receiver Johnnie Lee Higgins averages 19.6 yards per catch and aims for a third consecutive game with a touchdown reception. He is tied for the NFL lead with three punt return touchdowns and is second in the AFC with a 12.6-yard average per return. Tight end Zach Miller leads the team with 54 receptions for 744 yards and can become the first Raiders tight end to lead in both since Todd Christensen in 1986.

Oakland averages 267.9 total yards per week.

For Tampa Bay, linebacker Derrick Brooks was named to his 11th Pro Bowl, the second-most by a linebacker in NFL history. He had a 44-yard interception return for a touchdown against the Raiders in the Super Bowl matchup, and when Brooks returns a pick for a score over his career, the Bucs are 7-0. Also, cornerback Ronde Barber has 11 career defensive touchdowns, the most among active players and third all-time in the NFL.

Elsewhere, defensive end Kevin Carter has 104 1/2 career sacks and is one of two active players with 100-plus sacks. Finally, rookie cornerback Aqib Talib leads all NFL rookies with four interceptions. Talib and Barber share the team lead in interceptions, while lineman Gaines Adams is tops on the team in sacks with 5 1/2.

The Buccaneers allow 304.1 total yards per game.

WHEN THE BUCCANEERS HAVE THE BALL

In two career starts against Oakland, quarterback Jeff Garcia has completed 53-of-77 passes for 618 yards with six touchdowns and a 118.9 passer rating. He looks for a third game in a row against the Raiders with a 110-plus passer rating. Overall, when Garcia has a rating of 95.0 or better as a starter, his teams are 36-13. Running back Warrick Dunn is one of six players in NFL history with 10,000 rushing yards and 500 receptions. Pro Bowl rookie Clifton Smith aims to become the third player in NFL history to lead in both kick and punt return averages. Wideout Antonio Bryant has 23 catches for 435 yards and four touchdowns in his past three games. He aims for a fifth in a row with a touchdown catch and a fourth in row with 100-plus yards.

Tampa Bay averages 338.4 total yards per game.

Since 2007, Oakland's Thomas Howard is tied with Chicago's Brian Urlacher for most interceptions by a linebacker with seven. Rookie defensive end Trevor Scott leads all league rookies with five sacks and fellow end Derrick Burgess posted a season-high two last week against the Texans. Finally, kick returner/cornerback Justin Miller is averaging 28.4 yards per return with two touchdowns.

Oakland allows an average of 359.7 total yards per week.

FANTASY FOCUS

Big-play potential on defense and special teams are a wild card for the Raiders, who also have potential players this week in the surging Russell and the consistently effective Miller. For Tampa Bay, second-line runner Cadillac Williams could stand out with an increased workload and Bryant has been solid throughout a Pro Bowl-caliber season. Elsewhere, kicker Matt Bryant takes advantage of Tampa Bay's repeated bogging down in the red zone, while the Bucs defense is among the league's best each week.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

A dicey picking proposition, depending on what motivation scenarios end up playing out. Gruden and the Bucs are surely more in need of a win and should get it against a down-and-out Raiders team on a cross-country trip, but Oakland did defeat a more motivated Houston team last week and Tampa Bay has hardly been a late-season lock in recent times. All that said, the chalk should play out as prescribed.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Buccaneers 17, Raiders 10

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