ORLANDO, Fla. -- The projected track of Tropical Storm Noel keeps the system to the east of the state of Florida as it makes a north turn later this week.

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MAPS: Noel Track

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"The models are coming more into agreement with this staying off to the east," Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry said. "It will be picked up by a cold front and that is what is expected to curve the storm to the north and north east."

The storm will still impact Central Florida. Some counties will see wind gusts of up to 35 mph and major beach erosion, Mowry said.

Noel had sustained winds of about 50 mph and its outer bands were dumping rain over Hispaniola overnight, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

At 5 a.m. EDT, Noel's center was roughly 40 miles south of the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince, forecasters said.

The meandering storm was spinning north-northwest at roughly 6 mph, on a projected track that would bring its center near the southeastern peninsula of Haiti. A tropical storm warning was issued for the entire Haitian coastline and parts of neighboring Dominican Republic's southern coast.

Forecasters said Noel, with tropical storm force winds fanning 140 miles from its center, could drop 10 to 20 inches of water on Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba and Jamaica.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch were issued for southeastern parts of Cuba, including the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay where the U.S. military holds some 330 detainees on suspicion of links to terrorism.

Widespread deforestation and poor drainage mean that even moderate rains can cause devastation in Haiti, where thousands of people build ramshackle homes in flood plains.

In 2004 the Caribbean nation was hit by Tropical Storm Jeanne, which triggered flooding and mudslides that killed more than 2,000 people. That storm later strengthened into a hurricane.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.