ORLANDO, Fla. -- The latest projected path for Noel shows a weakening storm system lifting to the north Wednesday, near South Florida with 50 mph winds

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MAPS: Noel Moves Near Florida

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Early Wednesday, Noel's top sustained winds were near 40 mph, down from 60 mph a day earlier, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving "erratically" toward the northwest near 5 mph, the center said, but was expected to turn away from Florida later in the week and speed into the open Atlantic.

Tropical storm-strength winds extended up to 175 miles from the storm's center. Above-normal tides and heavy rains were expected in its path into the Atlantic. A tropical storm watch may be issued for southeast portions of the state if Noel shifts west or its wind field expands. A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

The National Weather Service warned gale-force winds, rough surf and flooding were possible through Wednesday for much of southeast Florida's Atlantic coastline. Swimmers are advised to stay out of the ocean because of the risk of rip currents and waves higher than 10 feet in wind gusts between 25 mph and 40 mph.

Broward County had the highest risk for beach erosion from the pounding surf, especially during high tide, according to the weather service.

Noel's center was 30 miles northwest of Camaguey, Cuba, and about 235 miles south-southwest of Nassau, Bahamas. Some strengthening could occur as it moves away from Cuba.

Emergency officials reported between 22 and 36 people dead Tuesday night, but estimates varied because of difficulties reaching or communicating with remote areas on the battered island of Hispaniola, which is shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Forecasters said up to 15 inches of rain were possible over the Bahamas and Cuba, and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

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