Rita Expected To Be Cat. 2 Storm In Keys

ORLANDO, Fla. -- The latest projected path of movement takes Rita through the Keys as a Category 2 hurricane and then into the Gulf of Mexico on a possible track for Texas or Louisiana, according to Local 6 News meteorologist Tom Sorrells.

The National Hurricane Center believes Rita could be a Category 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Texas after it leaves Florida.

However, Sorrells said there is no shear in the Gulf of Mexico and nothing to slow the storm down in the 80 degree waters.

"I can easily see this thing becoming a Category 4 or monster 5 in the Gulf before making landfall in Texas, sometime on Friday," Sorrells said.

Early Tuesday, the storm continued to strengthen on a path for the Keys.

"We are talking about a pretty good, wide expansive storm system that is really starting to get the out-flow boundaries going, Sorrells said. "So, these bands are starting to look impressive."

On its current path, the storm's impact on Central Florida will be minimal.

"Right now, where the storm is tracking, its effect (on Central Florida) will be pretty minimal," Local 6 meteorologist Michele Cimino said. "But we know how these things can wobble. If it wobbles a bit north of the current path, that could bring us in more rainfall."

At 5 a.m., the center of Rita was located near latitude 23.7 north, longitude 79.5 west or about 160 miles east-southeast of Key West, Fla. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts.

The National Hurricane Center shows the storm hitting around the Corpus Christi, Texas, area or even around Houston by the weekend.

The projected path shows a curve in the storm's path as it moves in the Gulf of Mexico.

"Here is what we don't want to see," Cimino said. "Take a look at where the cone has extended out to. It has extended out toward include Lousiana. The northern hook in the Gulf of Mexico will be critical to see if more rain moves into an area that definitely does not need any more rain."

People in areas ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana were warned it also could veer in their direction. Katrina crossed South Florida into the Gulf last month before it turned northward to Louisiana and Mississippi.

What To Expect In Central Fla.

Residents in some parts of Central Florida can expect to feel some of the effects of Rita as early as Tuesday.

Heavy rain is possible in Central Florida from Rita, especially in areas to the south of Orange County.

Tropical storm wind gusts are likely in the storm's rain bands, if they reach Central Florida.

"Seas are really going to rock as early as Tuesday night," Sorrells said. "It will be worse south of Cocoa."

Warnings

At 5 a.m., the government of the Bahamas discontinued all warnings for the central Bahamas, and downgraded the hurricane warning for Andros Island to a tropical storm warning.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Euthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

Hurricane warnings were posted for the Keys and Miami-Dade County, and the storm's eye was expected to pass between the islands and Cuba on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The hurricane warning is extended along the Florida west coast from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee.

Voluntary evacuation orders were posted for about 134,000 Miami-Dade residents who live in coastal areas such as Miami Beach and Key Biscayne. A hurricane warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys from ocean reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

A hurricane warning is also in effect for the northwest Bahamas, excluding Grand Bahama and the Abacos.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect from Deerfield Beach to north of Golden Beach.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from west of east Cape Sable to Chokoloskee, Fla.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, are possible in the Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern Florida coast, and in the northwestern Bahamas.

Thousands Flee Keys

Residents boarded up windows Monday and evacuated the low-lying Florida Keys as Tropical Storm Rita gathered strength in the Bahamas, threatening to grow into a hurricane with a potential 8-foot storm surge.

Officials in New Orleans warned that there was a chance Rita could charge through the Gulf of Mexico and interfere with recovery from Hurricane Katrina, which also roared across South Florida. Oil prices surged on the possibility that the storm would interrupt oil and gas production.

While many Keys residents take pride in staying put during hurricanes, others said they were worried because of Katrina's devastation of Louisiana and Mississippi. Most stores on Key West's Duval Street were boarded up Monday and that and other streets were nearly empty as the sky turned cloudy.

"We're going north, wherever the storm isn't going," John Williams said after he and Lisa Sparks got married Monday morning on the beach in Key West. They joked that if they had a baby girl they would name her Rita.

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851. The record is 21 tropical storms in 1933. Six hurricanes have hit Florida in the last 13 months.

Gov. Jeb Bush said the highway patrol reported that traffic out of the Keys was moving well on U.S. 1. However, lines were forming at gas stations.

In the Bahamas, some public schools were closed as the storm worked its way up that chain of islands with wind and rain.

Six to 15 inches of rain was possible in the Keys, with 3 to 5 inches possible across southern Florida. A storm surge rising 6 to 9 feet above normal tide level was predicted for the Keys.

"This is something everyone should be paying attention to," said Daniel Brown, a hurricane center meteorologist.

The man in charge of removing water from New Orleans and repairing levees warned that Rita could affect efforts to drain water out of the city.

"We're watching Tropical Storm Rita's projected path and, depending on its strength and how much rain falls, everything could change. Residents moving into the area may have to evacuate again," Col. Duane Gapinski, commander of the Army Corps of Engineers Task Force Unwatering, said in a statement.

Crude-oil futures rose above $67 a barrel Monday, in part because of worries about Rita.

Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Shell began evacuating employees from offshore oil- and gas-drilling platforms. Other companies were watching the storm's track but had not yet begun evacuations.

"These storms are pretty big and broad sometimes, so you take no chances," said Chevron spokesman Mickey Driver.

About 56 percent of the Gulf's oil production was already out of operation Monday because of Katrina's damage, the federal Minerals Management Service said.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Hurricane Philippe was far out at sea and posed no immediate threat to land. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Four hurricanes struck Florida last year, killing dozens of people and causing $19 billion in insured losses in Florida. Hurricane Dennis brushed by the Keys in July, flooding some Key West streets, toppling trees and knocking out power, before slamming the Florida Panhandle.

Florida was also hit this year by Hurricane Katrina. Eleven people died there.

Farther out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Philippe formed late Sunday well east of the Lesser Antilles.

The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Watch Tom Sorrells, Larry Mowry and Michele Cimino for more on this story.