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Houston, Galveston May Avoid Direct Hit

POSTED: Friday, September 23, 2005
UPDATED: 12:06 pm EDT September 23, 2005

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast shows the storm possibly gaining some strength in the next 12 hours on a path toward Texas, likely avoiding a direct hit on Houston and Galveston early Saturday, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.

Friday, Rita remained a Category 4 storm, threatening its 140-mph winds at the Beaumont and Port Arthur area about 75 miles east of Houston.

"We are thinking 3 or 4 a.m. tomorrow," Mowry said. "It may be a Category 5 in the next 12 to 24 hours and then weaken before it makes landfall."

Mowry said there is also the possibility it could weaken below a Category 4 storm when it makes landfall.

"Once it gets closer to the coastline, it is going to enter some cooler water and find itself in some upper level shear which may weaken the storm at landfall."

"I really believe that it reached its zenith when it had winds of 165 or 170 mph," Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells said. "It just about did itself in. "I don't think it is going to rage like it did in the last 24 hours."

Severe wind damage from the storm is expected on the Gulf Coast on the storm's current path.

"As far a wind damage, severe wind damage is expected along the coast and high wind damage is expected as far up as Lufkin and even Dallas," Mowry said.

After the storm makes landfall, heavy rain is expected through the weekend in Texas and parts of Louisiana and Oklahoma.

"We are talking about up to 20 inches of rain possible in this area over the weekend and next week," Mowry said. "The storm isn't going to move anywhere once it gets into Texas. This is going to be a major problem there."

"The problem with this is that after if makes landfall, come 2 p.m. Monday, it is still right there in Texas," Sorrells said. "We are talking about wind like Katrina and winds like Tropical Storm Allison that flooded Houston in 2001."

At 11 a.m.., the center of Rita was located near latitude 27.4 north, longitude 91.9 west or about 220 miles southeast of Galveston and about 210 miles east-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 135 mph with higher gusts. Rita is now a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Rita Sparks Exodus

The unprecedented flight from the flood-prone Houston area continued to clog highways at a near standstill, frustrating hundreds of thousands of people whose cars and tempers were overheating.

"It can't get much worse, 100 yards an hour," steamed Willie Bayer, 70, who was heading out of Houston and trying to get to Sulphur Springs in far northeast Texas. "It's frustrating bumper-to-bumper."

The first rain bands were expected before nightfall Friday with the full fury of Rita expected into Saturday. Forecasters warned of the possibility of a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet, battering waves and rain of up to 15 inches along the Texas and western Louisiana coast.

State officials scrambled to reroute several inbound highways to accommodate outbound traffic, but many people were waiting so long they ran out of gas and were forced to park.

We know you're out there," Houston Mayor Bill White said of the congestion that extended well into Louisiana. "We understand there's been fuel shortages." Texas Army National Guard trucks were escorted by police to directly provide motorists with gasoline. The state was also working to get more than 200,000 gallons of gas to fuel-starved stations in the Houston area.

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851.

The record is 21 tropical storms in 1933. Six hurricanes have hit Florida in the last 13 months.

The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Watch Tom Sorrells, Larry Mowry and Michele Cimino for more on this story.

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