MIAMI -- Computer models showing the projected movement of Tropical Storm Wilma show the storm strengthening into a significant hurricane and possibly moving toward Florida or even Louisiana by the weekend, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.

"Once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, there is a lot of uncertainty as to where it will go," Mowry said. "A lot of the computer models are trending it toward Florida by the time we get to Sunday and Monday and some are trending it toward north toward Louisiana."

Tropical Storm Wilma formed Monday in the northwestern Caribbean, tying the record for the most storms in an Atlantic season as the ocean is in the middle of a frenzied period of hurricane activity.

Wilma is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday.

"That is where the big question is," Mowry said. "What will happen after the storm gets into the Gulf on Saturday. Some of the models take it to Florida and some have it going to Louisiana. There is also a possibility of it heading to Texas."

Monday, a majority of the computer models show the storm pushing west and south.

"One of the reasons we are thinking this storm will push toward the Yucatan Peninsula is that we have an area of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the steering flow will likely push the storm to the Yucatan," Mowry said.

However, by the weekend, a series of cold fronts are expected to weaken the area of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, which could move the storm north and toward Florida.

"This is the key element of the forecast," Mowry said.

Wilma is the 21st named storm of the season. The only other time that many storms formed since record keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933.

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At 11 a.m., the center of Wilma was located near latitude 16.3 north, longitude 80.0 west or about 220 miles, 355 km, south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 230 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

A hurricane watch was issued for the Cayman Islands, meaning hurricane conditions could be felt there within 36 hours. The depression is expected to bring 4 to 6 inches of rain in the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as 12 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.

The U.S. Gulf Coast was already battered this year by Hurricane Katrina on Aug. 29. It killed more than 1,240 people and is expected to cause more than $34 billion in insured losses. That makes Katrina the third-deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1900 and the most expensive natural disaster in the nation's history. Hurricanes Rita and Dennis have also battered the Gulf.

Forecasters warned that Wilma's path was still uncertain after reaching the Gulf.

"Usually when a storm gets into the Gulf, it's going to hit somewhere. Where, that's too early to tell right now. Some models take it west, some take it north," said Larry Lahiff, a meteorologist at the hurricane center.

Since 1995, the Atlantic has been in a period of higher hurricane activity. Scientists agree that the cause of the increase is a rise in ocean temperatures and a decrease in the amount of disruptive vertical wind shear that rips hurricanes apart. Shear is when winds around a storm blow at different speeds and directions.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the busy seasons are part of a natural cycle that can last for at least 20 years, and sometimes up to 40 or 50. They say the conditions are similar to those when the Atlantic was last in a period of high activity in the 1950s and 60s.

But some scientists argue that global warming fueled by man's generation of greenhouse gases is the culprit.

It's also difficult to know whether the Atlantic was even busier at any time before record keeping began in 1851. And satellites have only been tracking tropical weather since the 1960s, so some storms that just stayed at sea before then could have escaped notice.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the list of storm names for 2005; there are 21 names on the yearly list because the letters q, u, x, y and z are skipped. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used, starting with Alpha. That has never happened in roughly 60 years of regularly named Atlantic storms.

A tracking map on the hurricane center's wall already had Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta listed just in case they form.

Forecasters say they wouldn't be surprised if another storm formed this year, even though the official forecast only called for 21 named storms this year. Wind shear typically increases and sea temperatures usually fall toward the end of October in the Atlantic, hurricane specialist Richard Knabb said.

"But the western Caribbean is an especially favorable location for late season development because the water remains quite warm and the vertical shear often is not that strong down there, that far south. So conditions are still favorable down there sometimes in late October and into November," he said.