The latest computer models for Tropical Storm Wilma show the storm becoming a hurricane Tuesday on its path toward the Gulf of Mexico, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.

"The position the storm will be in when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday will be key as to how it will impact our weather," Mowry said. "Some of the models are wanting to steer the storm toward Florida by the time we reach Sunday and Monday. Some want to take it off to the north to Louisiana. And still some want models take it toward the Bay of Campeche, toward Mexico."

Tropical Storm Wilma strengthened Monday after forming in the northwestern Caribbean, tying the record for the most storms in an Atlantic season and following a path that some forecasters believe could menace the Gulf Coast next week as a hurricane.

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Tropical Storm Wilma continued to shift south Monday afternoon.

At 11 a.m. EDT, Wilma had top sustained wind near 45 mph, up 5 mph in three hours. It was centered about 220 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman and drifting southwest near 5 mph.

Several computer models showed the storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico and then moving toward Florida.

"There is going to be a lot of uncertainty with these models," Mowry said. "These models will change over the next few days. It is really not going to be until Wednesday until we have a firm grasp on where this storm will be going."

An area of high pressure could push the storm toward the Yucatan Peninsula before the system has time to turn toward Florida.

"One of the reasons we are thinking this storm will push toward the Yucatan Peninsula is that we have an area of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the steering flow will likely push the storm to the Yucatan," Mowry said.

However, by the weekend, a series of cold fronts are expected to weaken the area of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, which could move the storm north and toward Florida.

"This is the key element of the forecast," Mowry said.

Wilma is the 21st named storm of the season. The only other time that many storms have formed in one season since record keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933.

Warnings, Watches Issued

A hurricane watch was issued for the Cayman Islands, meaning hurricane conditions could be felt there within 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours, also was posted. A tropical storm warning was also issued for the Honduran coast.

The storm is expected to bring 4 to 6 inches of rain in the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as 12 inches possible in some areas, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

Long-term forecasts show the storm heading into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Forecasters said high water temperatures and other conditions were favorable for it to become a significant hurricane.

The U.S. Gulf Coast was already battered this year by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Dennis.

Since 1995, the Atlantic has been in a period of higher hurricane activity.

Scientists say the cause of the increase is a rise in ocean temperatures and a decrease in the amount of disruptive vertical wind shear that rips hurricanes apart. Some researchers argue that global warming fueled by man's generation of greenhouse gases is the culprit.

Forecasters at the hurricane center say the busy seasons are part of a natural cycle that can last for at least 20 years, and sometimes up to 40 or 50. They say the conditions are similar to those when the Atlantic was last in a period of high activity in the 1950s and 60s.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the list of storm names for 2005; there are 21 names on the yearly list because the letters q, u, x, y and z are skipped.

If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used, starting with Alpha. That has never happened in roughly 60 years of regularly named Atlantic storms.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.