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Wilma Models Show Sharp Bend Toward Florida

POSTED: Monday, October 17, 2005
UPDATED: 11:06 pm EDT October 17, 2005

The current path of projected movement shows Wilma making a sharp turn toward Florida as a significant hurricane when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, according to Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells.

"Things are starting to change a little bit and it is just not the best news," Sorrells said. "The path of projected movement puts it as a Category 3 storm by Wednesday just outside the Yucatan. At this point, westerly winds will be blowing through, making this thing take a sharp right toward the state of Florida. How sharp that right turn, and how fast it becomes a turn will make all the difference in our forecast."

The high pressure center that is in control will move away and a cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico.


MAP: Track The Storm | Sat. Loop
INTERACTIVE: Hurricanes 101 | Tracker
SPECIAL: Hurricane Guide -- Storm Status

There is a possibility that the cold front could take the storm somewhere else but Monday night the models are bending the storm toward Florida.

Tropical Storm Wilma strengthened after getting into the history books Monday, continuing on a path that could mean yet another powerful hurricane slamming into the U.S. Gulf Coast and Mexico as early as the weekend, forecasters said.

Wilma became the Atlantic hurricane season's 21st named storm before dawn, tying the record set in 1933 and exhausting the list of storm names. It could strengthen into the year's 12th hurricane by Tuesday. That many hurricanes formed in 1969, the most since record keeping began in 1851.

"I think the message is that the season is certainly not over. People in the Gulf Coast are going to have to watch Wilma," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

At 11 p.m. EDT, Wilma had top sustained winds of about 65 mph, up 25 mph from earlier in the day. It was centered about 250 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman and was drifting westward at 2 mph.

The Cayman Islands were under a hurricane watch, meaning those conditions could be felt within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning was posted there and for the Honduran coast, meaning those conditions are expected within 24 hours. The storm is expected to bring 2 to 6 inches of rain in the Caymans, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, Honduras and Jamaica, with as much as 12 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.

Tootie Eldemire, owner of the Eldemire Guest House on Grand Cayman, said she stocked up on water, candles, flashlights and canned goods for her guests. "We're on alert but we're not panicking," Eldemire said, adding that tourists were moving around town as usual.

"There's no scenario now that takes it toward Louisiana or Mississippi, but that could change," Mayfield said.

The Gulf Coast was already battered this year by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Dennis, while Emily hit Mexico.

Conditions such as warm water and favorable atmospheric winds are in place for Wilma to strengthen, possibly into a major hurricane with winds above 110 mph. "If it goes through the Yucatan Channel, there won't be much to weaken it," Mayfield said.

Since 1995, the Atlantic has been in a period of higher hurricane activity. Scientists say the cause of the increase is a rise in ocean temperatures and a decrease in the amount of disruptive vertical wind shear that rips hurricanes apart. Some researchers argue that global warming fueled by man's generation of greenhouse gases is the culprit.

Forecasters at the hurricane center say the busy seasons are part of a natural cycle that can last for at least 20 years, and sometimes up to 40 or 50. They say the conditions are similar to those when the Atlantic was last in a period of high activity in the 1950s and 60s.

It's difficult to know whether the Atlantic was even busier at any time before record keeping began. And satellites have only been tracking tropical weather since the 1960s, so some storms that just stayed at sea or hit unpopulated areas before then could have escaped notice.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the list of storm names for 2005; there are 21 names on the yearly list because the letters q, u, x, y and z are skipped. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used, starting with Alpha.

That has never happened in roughly 60 years of regularly named Atlantic storms.

"We've got six weeks to go, so a lot of things can happen," Mayfield said, noting that there have been 10 late-season hurricanes Category 3 or higher since 1995.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.

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