ORLANDO, Fla. -- Tropical Storm Wilma has strengthened into a hurricane on a path that could threaten Florida, Cuba and Mexico, tying the record for the most hurricanes to form in an Atlantic season.

The latest official track from the National Hurricane Center puts Wilma in South Florida on Saturday as a significant hurricane, according to Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry.

"If this were to play out, this would not be a horrible situation for us in Central Florida," Mowry said. "We would be dealing with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds but the worst of the storm would be on the south side of the system. That is bad news for the folks in Miami but for us in Central Florida, not a horrible situation."

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Wilma stalled over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean early Tuesday. However, the storm is expected to begin to move it toward the Gulf of Mexico by Friday as a Category 3 storm.

Once it hits the Gulf, the storm is expected to make a sharp turn toward Florida.

"There is a cold front dropping down from the central part of the country that will likely pick up Wilma and shift it to the north and east toward Florida this weekend," Mowry said.

Some upper level shear will drop the storm's strength before landfall on the latest path, Mowry said.

"Once it reaches the Gulf, it is expected to enter an area of what we call hostile environment where there will be some upper level shear and that is a good thing," Mowry said. "It does weaken it before it hits South Florida."

Even though South Florida is the new target for Wilma, the cone of projected movement still includes north Florida.

If the current storm track holds true, Central Florida can expect periods of heavy rain Saturday with some tropical storm-force winds.

At 11 a.m., Wilma's center was about 195 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 200 miles east-northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. It was moving northwest near 7 mph.

Storm Makes History

Wilma entered the history books Monday, becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's 21st named storm before dawn, tying the record set in 1933 and exhausting the list of storm names.

The Cayman Islands were under a hurricane watch, meaning those conditions could be felt within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning was posted there and for the Honduran coast, meaning those conditions were expected within 24 hours. The storm is expected to bring 2 to 6 inches of rain in the Caymans, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, Honduras and Jamaica, with as much as 12 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.

The Gulf Coast was already battered this year by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Dennis, while Emily hit Mexico.

Since 1995, the Atlantic has been in a period of higher hurricane activity. Scientists say the cause of the increase is a rise in ocean temperatures and a decrease in the amount of disruptive vertical wind shear that rips hurricanes apart. Some researchers argue that global warming fueled by man's generation of greenhouse gases is the culprit.

Forecasters at the hurricane center say the busy seasons are part of a natural cycle that can last for at least 20 years, and sometimes up to 40 or 50. They say the conditions are similar to those when the Atlantic was last in a period of high activity in the 1950s and 60s.

It's difficult to know whether the Atlantic was even busier at any time before record keeping began. And satellites have only been tracking tropical weather since the 1960s, so some storms that just stayed at sea or hit unpopulated areas before then could have escaped notice.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the list of storm names for 2005; there are 21 names on the yearly list because the letters q, u, x, y and z are skipped. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used, starting with Alpha. That has never happened in roughly 60 years of regularly named Atlantic storms.

"We've got six weeks to go, so a lot of things can happen," Mayfield said, noting that there have been 10 late-season hurricanes Category 3 or higher since 1995.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.