Hurricanes

Special Features

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: Active tropical waves are going to provide increasing moisture across the central and western Caribbean Sea for the next several days. Meanwhile a persistent upper-level trough over western Cuba and southward will sustain divergent flow across the area through Friday. Expect strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds near these locations through Friday. Heavy rain can cause flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas and hilly terrains where soil is already saturated by earlier rainfall. The heaviest rain is forecast from Tue to Fri. Residents living in these locations need to stay alert and listen to their local weather/emergency management offices for the latest information.

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave is emerging off the coast of Africa near 14W from 11N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 10W and 19W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W/43W from 13N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 39W and 46W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is over Barbados near 59W/60W from 16N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 16N between 55W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from near the Cayman Islands southward to western Panama, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 16N between 77W and 83W. Widely scattered showers are near the Cayman Islands and Island of Youth.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 07N120W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N20W to 07N41W and then from 07N44W to 10N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 03N to 10N between 27W and 38W, and from 04N to 10N between 46W and 56W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Convergent southeasterly winds are joining forces with a mid- level trough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf. Fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted at the SW Gulf, including portions of the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the next several days, supporting generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf, except for pulsing locally strong winds pulsing near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula in the evenings. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a heavy rainfall event.

A surface trough near the Windward Passage is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident in the SW and S-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen at the eastern and north- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through early Mon, with seas to around 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over portions of the western basin just over southern Jamaica adjacent waters as a tropical wave moves across the region through this afternoon. The wave is also supporting scattered showers and tstms between the Windward Passage and the coast of Nicaragua, which are forecast to continue and amplify the next couple of days.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a heavy rainfall event.

A front across the forecast waters from 30N55W SW to the central Bahamas adjacent waters is becoming stationary. Patchy showers are seen up to 90 nm either side of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds farther S of this boundary are triggering scattered moderate convection from 22N to 30N between 50W and 64W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of 24N between the front and the Florida coast, including the northwest and central Bahamas. Mainly gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident N of 20N between 22W and the front. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate N to NNE winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are seen N of 16N between the Africa coast and 24W. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 24W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will become stationary along 25N today and weaken into a surface trough by Mon evening. Energy associated with a convectively active tropical wave, currently over the W Caribbean will lift NNE and merge with this trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough will drift eastward and move to the central subtropical Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Fresh SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough as it crosses the northern and then eastern offshore waters.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky