NHC: System in tropics has 90 percent chance of becoming depression

System in tropics continues to bring rain to Orlando area

(Photo courtesy of NHC)

ORLANDO, Fla. – A system being monitored in the tropics now has a higher chance of developing in the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to the NHC's most recent update, the system has a 90 percent chance of forming a tropical or sub-tropical depression in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The system is expected to bring heavy rain and create strong rip currents, according to the Hurricane Center.

News 6 meteorologist Candace Campos confirmed that the models show the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of the system's potential development, Campos said Central Floridians should be prepared for a soggy holiday weekend, as heavy rainfall and flooding are expected.

"Some areas could see upwards of 5 to 9 inches of rain over the next five days," Campos said.

Campos said it's also possible that a flood watch could be issued in the upcoming days.

The wet weather was already getting underway Thursday as the rainmaker influenced Central Florida's weather pattern.

Moisture is increasing from the south, bringing an increase in rain coverage for the end of the week into the weekend.

Thursday is expected to be slightly drier than the holiday weekend, with only a 30 percent coverage of rain on tap for the afternoon.

Rain chances will increase considerably as the area of low pressure gradually moves north into the Gulf of Mexico.

[RELATED: Weather system in tropics prompts warning from Gov. Rick ScottComputer model shows possible tropical depression forming]

"The area of low pressure will move into the Gulf of Mexico, but just before it does, it will have a chance to strengthen and possibly become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm," News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said. "If this thing gets a name, it would be called Alberto."

The system's chance of development is very brief. It will only have a limited time to gain enough strength to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before encountering upper-level winds, according to Bridges. 

"That wind shear will be a big factor in keeping the storm weak in the central and northern Gulf," Bridges said.

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Whether or not the system develops, it is guaranteed to be a rainmaker in the Orlando area.

Bridges predicts it could possibly dump up to 8 inches of rain onto Central Florida for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Rain chances will increase to 60 percent Friday and 70 percent Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

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The temperature in Orlando Wednesday warmed to 89 degrees. The average high for that date, as well as for Thursday’s date, is 89 degrees. The record high for May 24 is 97 degrees and was set back in 1956.

The Orlando area did not receive any rainfall Wednesday, leaving the deficit at 2.37 inches since Jan. 1.

Meanwhile, there is a surplus of 6.91 inches in Daytona Beach since Jan. 1. Sanford now has a surplus of 2.16 inches since the start of the year, according to Bridges.

News 6 will continue to monitor the tropics through the holiday weekend. Continue checking on air and at ClickOrlando.com/weather for updates on its potential development.

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