Tropical disturbance has 70% chance of developing in next 2 days

Tropical depression likely to form, head into Gulf of Mexico

By Troy Bridges - Meteorologist, Emilee Speck - Digital journalist

A tropical disturbance is becoming better organized Thursday and has a 70 % chance of developing into a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center.

"Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph," the NHC said.

If the system continues to develop at this rate, it's possible the NHC will issue tropical cyclone advisories later on Thursday.

A tropical depression is likely to develop as the system moves northwest over Florida, straight into southern Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The timing on when it becomes a depression is still questionable.

This tropical disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and wind across parts of the Bahamas through Friday, including the northwest islands which were devastated by Hurricane Dorian.

The models are not in great agreement about where this thing will become a tropical depression. There’s a chance it will develop into a depression with heavy rain and some stronger wind as it moves over South Florida. There’s also a chance it will not develop until it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually into the panhandle of Florida.

A system in the Atlantic is expected to develop over the next five days.

The European model tries to bring it along the east coast of Florida on the general path that Dorian took.

Keep in mind it is not expected to strengthen into much more than an area of rain and stronger wind gusts.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon if necessary.

The hurricane center is giving the system a 70% chance of development within the next few days and 80% chance within the next five days.

Here's the bottom line: The system will be a rainmaker possibly bringing Florida, including Central Florida, between 2 and 4 inches of rain with the possibility of a few stronger storms with some intense wind gusts depending on exactly where it goes and how strong it will be.

A separate tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde island is introducing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days for this system as a tropical depression early next week as it moves closer to the lesser Antilles.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this tropical wave a zero percent chance of development within the next two days and a 40% chance of development within the next five days.

Rain chances for Thursday in Central Florida will be at 30%. Expect a 60% coverage of rain on Friday and an 80% coverage of rain this Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will warm into the mid-90s on Thursday in the upper 80s for Friday through the weekend.

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