Hurricanes

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 04N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04N30W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 10W and 27W.

Gulf Of Mexico

The tail-end of a cold front extends off the Tampa Bay, Florida coast. A pre-frontal trough extends from the Ft. Myers, Florida coast to the western Gulf near 25N96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southeast Gulf from 23N to 26N between 83W and 85W. Light to gentle winds mostly prevail over the entire basin, except moderate to locally fresh winds along the northern Yucatan coast. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf.

Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico are in most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The visibilities are being reduced in some areas.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail over the Straits of Florida this evening. Gusty winds along with rough seas will prevail near the convection. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail elsewhere, with slight seas. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

Ridging extends across the area from high pressure NE of the area. Strong thunderstorms are noted in the SW basin along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 13N between 73W and 82W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds are likely occurring in these storms. Strong thunderstorms are also impacting Cuba and adjacent waters.

Fresh to strong E to NE winds are noted in the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela, S of 17N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted along the northern Honduras coast. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the basin. Seas ranging 2 to 4 ft are noted in the eastern, southwest, and northwest Caribbean.

Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may be impacting portions of the NW Caribbean, particularly in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a deep layer trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean Mon night through Fri, supporting active weather E of 80W Tue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop in the central Caribbean Tue and shift eastward through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, but continue to thin out.

Atlantic Ocean

In the SW N Atlantic off the Florida coast, a cold front extends from 31N66W to the Melbourne, Florida coast. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 26N to 31N between 65W and 77W. Strong thunderstorms are also impacting Cuba and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted off the Florida coast, with moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front N of 28N and E of 73W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the area of fresh winds off the Florida coast. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across the western Atlantic. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the rest of the region.

In the central Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the area anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure near 33N25W. Under the influence of the high, light to gentle winds prevail N of 20N to 31N. South of 20N, moderate NE to E winds prevail. Seas are to 4 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, the same 1023 mb high pressure is influencing this region. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over Africa is producing fresh to strong winds off the west African coast N of 15N and E of 20W. Seas 6 to 8 ft are likely occurring along the Western Sahara coast. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front off the Florida coast will move southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to SE Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of the weakening front and extend into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift eastward through Fri night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in the western Atlantic with the front/trough through midweek, then light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected through Fri.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart