Eyes on tropics as tropical wave continues moving through Caribbean

High level of uncertainty in forecast with Invest 99L

ORLANDO, Fla. – The disturbance known as Invest 99L is still moving through the Caribbean.

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The good news today is that the system appears to have weakened. Wednesday, the Recon Flights found winds about 55 mph. Thursday, the highest wind they could find was down to 38 mph.

There appeared to be some circulation at the upper levels with high clouds, but the Hurricane Hunters found no closed surface low.

The tropical models are in good agreement for the next 24 hours in bringing the system almost directly west. Then on Saturday, they fan out in different directions.

There is a high level of uncertainty in the forecast with this system.

We keep waiting for a true center to form. If that happens, the models will perform much better on a solution that will give us better guidance.

Elsewhere in the tropics

Hurricane Gaston has weakened to a tropical storm in the Atlantic. It was forecast to become a hurricane again over the weekend.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm's maximum sustained winds Thursday evening were near 65 mph.

The storm is centered about 1,075 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands and is moving northwest near 17 mph.

Central Florida forecast

Thursday night, we will continue to have coastal showers move on shore. That pattern will persist through Friday.

Look for a low Thursday night in Orlando of 76. The high Friday will bounce back to 91 with a 30 percent chance of rain.

Watch News 6 and stay with ClickOrlando.com for updates.


About the Author

Tom Sorrells is News 6's Emmy award winning chief meteorologist. He pinpoints storms across Central Florida to keep residents safe from dangerous weather conditions.

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