BEFORE THE STORM
DURING THE STORM
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 1 week, 3 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends eastward from 06N15W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and west of 14W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas dominate most of the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires in portions of southern Mexico is reducing visibility and creating hazy conditions across parts of the southwest and west-central Gulf of Mexico.
For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of the Lesser Antilles, combined with abundant tropical moisture, is resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms across the north- central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more information.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas are observed in the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has finally lift NE and out of the area, taking showers and thunderstorms with it.
Atlantic Ocean
A weak cold front extends from a 1017 mb low near 27N58W to 26N70W to 30N75W. No convection is directly associated with this front. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas are noted north of the front, while gentle or weaker NE to E winds and slight seas are found south of the front.
Further east, another modest cold front extends from 31N41W to 22N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the front to 35W, and north of 22N. Ahead of the front to 33W, moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present. Off the coast of Morocco, Western Sahara, and in the vicinity of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring. Moderate seas are found in these waters, with the highest seas found where winds are fresh. Waters south of 19N are dominated by moderate trades and moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front extending from 27N58W to 26N70W to 30N75W will gradually dissipate as it drifts southward through tonight. High-pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh trade winds south of 24N through midweek. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center well north of the region over the north-central Atlantic will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W Mon night through Tue night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida as the high pressure shifts southeast ahead of a front moving off the Carolinas.
Posted 1 hour, 58 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Nepaul
