Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 06N to 10N and between 30W and 35W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over northeastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and dives southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 16N30W and then to 10N45W. No significant convection is evident other than already described in the Tropical Wave section.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front reaches from Mobile Bay, Alabama across the far northwest Gulf to Galveston Bay, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the northern Gulf from Texas to the Big Bend area of Florida. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west along roughly 24N, from the Florida Straits to the coast of Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds north of 28N where seas are 3-5 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds into the upcoming week. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where a cold front approaching the coast will help to induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 92W into the upcoming week as a mid to upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast.

Caribbean Sea

The westward- building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 82W is helping to enhance numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean. The wave will move inland Central America late tonight into early Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pattern will change little through Tue, then lift north to central Florida on Wed and north of 31N on Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. Will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area well into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen