Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 08N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noticed from 08N to 18N and E of 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49W, from 06N to 22N, moving W at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W, from the 17N65W southward into Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75W, moving W at around 15 kt. No convection is currently associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N16W and continues to 11N42W. The ITCZ extends from 11N42W to 08N47W where it is broken by a tropical wave, and then resumes from 07N49W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 14N between 22W and 45W.

Gulf Of America

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf near 26N87W. A surface trough extending off the SW FL coast near Naples is generating scattered moderate convection over the nearshore waters. A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW basin. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds dominate much of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will bring gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas to the basin into mid-week. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are likely each afternoon and evening along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Mon as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and the Atlantic ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean, generally S of 15N, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Across the NW Caribbean, NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is occurring along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean today, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift east tonight, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds north of the area.

Atlantic Ocean

A pair of surface troughs in the western Atlantic are facilitating the development of scattered moderate convection N of 27N and W of 65W, with more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms impacting the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are seen in this region as well. In the central Atlantic, an upper- level trough is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection NE of the Lesser Antilles from 16N to 22N between 54W and 60W. Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along and near a surface trough in the central Atlantic analyzed from 31N44W to 26N54W. Surface ridging prevails across much of the remaining Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. Scatterometer data from this morning indicate fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Today, then stall. SW winds will increase and seas will build N of 25N through the middle of the week between this front and the Atlantic ridge to the east.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams