Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues south-southwestward to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01S46W. Numerous scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 06N between 16W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

Weak 1013 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near 26N85W. The typical evening trough is over the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted over the northern Yucatan Peninsula, moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft are over the western Gulf, and gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over the western Gulf near the high pressure. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through Fri. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat, lasting to into Sat night offshore Veracruz. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front.

Caribbean Sea

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin along seas of 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night and diminishing on Sun and Mon. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

1015 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic off the northern Bahamas near 27N72W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida, with gentle breezes and 5-7 ft in N swell elsewhere west of 65W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N45W to 24N60W. Fresh to strong NW winds and 6-9 ft follow the front north of 27N and as far east as 65W. Fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft are active within 300 nm east of the front north of 24N. 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 25N35W, following another cold front reaching from an occluded low pressure near the Azores, to 30N20W to 20N29W. Gentle breezes and 5-7 ft in N swell are evident elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate NE trade winds and 4-6 ft are ongoing across the tropical Atlantic south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift E of 55W north of 24N Thu morning while the portion of the front S of 24N remains stationary to near 22N69W, gradually weakening through Fri. Another cold front will move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening. A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early on Sun and stall into Sun night and Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen