Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W south of 17N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46/47W south of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65/66W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between 62W and 64W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W south of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Most associated convection associated with this wave is in the eastern north pacific.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends SW to near 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N27W. It resumes from 04N31W to 04N45W. Aside from convection noted in the TROPICAL WAVES section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 14N between 10W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is centered over central Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate winds W of 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters E of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located over eastern Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are found over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will generally remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N53W, and a 1026 mb high near 29N32W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and falling pressure over Africa with a tropical wave over western Africa, is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 20N and E of 20W to the coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail elsewhere over the waters E of 30W, and S of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al