Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and east of 29W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between an extensive ridge over the eastern United States and lower pressures associated with a frontal boundary that extends from the NW Atlantic to western Cuba support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over the SE Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas will gradually diminish tonight in the SE Gulf. High pressure will build across the Gulf, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin- wide by Wed night, then prevailing through late week.

Caribbean Sea

Pockets of low-level moisture support isolated showers across the Caribbean Sea. The presence of a frontal boundary just north of the basin allows for a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean, supporting moderate to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin into the weekend. Fresh NE winds are expected tonight through Wed night across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba as a late-season cold front moves across Cuba, then dissipates along the N coast of Hispaniola Wed night into Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a gale-force low pressure in the NW Atlantic to 31N58W and continues southwestward to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of this boundary, especially north of 24N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft are occurring behind the front. However, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found under the ridge off the SE United States, mainly north of 29N and west of 74W.

Farther east, northerly swell associated with a storm-force low pressure well north of the Azores supports rough seas over the far NE Atlantic, especially north of 24N and east of 36W. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure dominates sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will continue to follow the aforementioned front as it moves eastward through Wed night. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for the end of the week, bringing tranquil conditions to area waters through the weekend.

Posted 1 hour, 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado