Tropical Waves

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 15N, and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 150 nm N of the ITCZ from 19W to 35W.

Gulf Of America

Numerous moderate to isolated scattered moderate convection, generated from outflow boundaries associated with earlier thunderstorms over Texas, is impacting waters within 90 nm of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. This activity is bringing locally higher winds and seas. A cluster of thunderstorms is also along the coast near Tampico, Mexico. A 1028 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends westward to the Gulf waters supporting fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 25N and between 88W and 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to strong tonight offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Beginning Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the region dominates the Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7 to 10 ft. Fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident, except in the NW basin, where gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Windward Passage in associated with a trough N of the Turks and Caicos, and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is generating scattered convection within 90 nm of the coast of Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean through the weekend, with rough seas continuing. Fresh trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas will prevail

Atlantic Ocean

An elongated deep layer low pressure extending from near 31N75W to N of the Turks and Caicos is generating scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 73W and 80W. The subtropical ridge, centered near Bermuda, dominates most of the rest of the basin, although a weak cold front extends from 31N35W to 26N59W. No significant weather changes are associated with this front, but seas generated from higher winds to the north are impacting waters N of the front, causing seas of 7 to 9 ft N of 30N between 35W and 45W. Elsewhere N of 22N, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. To the S of 22N, moderate to fresh trades dominate with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough E of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms into Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola afternoons and evenings through the end of the week. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through the weekend.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik