Special Features

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1032 mb Azores High and lower pressures over northern Africa currently support strong to near gale-force NE winds between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. These winds are confirmed by scatterometer data from 1100 UTC today. Winds will continue to increase and reach gale-force later today. Accordingly, Meteo France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir Zone until 26/00 UTC.

For more details, please refer to Meteo-France's website at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 39W, from 08N to 20N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Convection near this wave is discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean and has an axis along 66W. It is moving W at around 20 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Haiti to the Colombia-Venezuela border, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the Gulf of Venezuela and Lake Maracaibo.

A tropical wave is crossing out of the far western Caribbean into Central America along 88W, southward from the Gulf of Honduras, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave is impacting waters W of 80W and S of 20N, likely enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough which extends across the far SW Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and continues SW to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N33W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N between the W coast of Africa and 45W.

Gulf Of America

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N88W. A surface trough just offshore the Florida Peninsula is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 88W. In the SW Gulf, a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is generating moderate SE winds. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle, with slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will bring gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight into Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on any convection across the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean with seas of 6 to 9 ft. In the E basin, E winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate while in the NW Caribbean winds are moderate or weaker and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist over much of the western Caribbean through tonight.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough in the W Atlantic combined with upper level divergence from an upper level trough N of the region are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection from 24N to 31N between 67W and 72W, as well as over the central and northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring E of the Lesser Antilles with convergent surface winds in place. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ and monsoon trough is causing moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas across much of the Atlantic. E of 30W, the gradient tightens and fresh to strong winds along with rough seas are impacting waters N of 20N, including near the Canary Islands where NE winds are strong to near-gale force. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will shift southward this weekend, allowing a cold front to move into the northern waters between Bermuda and Florida Mon night, before stalling and dissipating into the middle of next week. Fresh SW winds will develop ahead of this front, mainly N of 28N.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams