Special Features

Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization along a tropical wave located along 38W, around 700 nm SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next few days and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days will the system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance of development over the next 7 days.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is emerging off the African coast along 18W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of this wave from 10N to 13N between 18W and 23W.

See the Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave, Invest AL92, that is likely to develop into a tropical depression.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W extending southward from 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 56W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W S of 22N, crossing portions of Hispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined to waters within about 90 nm of the coast of Hispaniola.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, S of 21N, extending through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 20N and W of 83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N32.5W to 11N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N and east of 21W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N84W. A surface trough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and is inducing scattered moderate convection in the central Bay of Campeche. Light winds and slight seas encompass the NE basin closest to the high, with gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward across the northern Gulf, and will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting strong winds over the central Caribbean, with associated rough seas. Fresh NE winds are also funnelling through the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge along 27N-28N and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will shift southward to near 26N by Thu and combine with a passing tropical wave, and allow strong trades to significantly expand in coverage over the central and eastern portions of the basin into early Sat. Winds will pulse up to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Looking ahead, sowers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and approaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL91 located well SW of the Cabo Verde Islands.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with moderate seas. Offshore Africa, NE of the Cabo Verde Islands, including the Canary Islands, fresh to locally strong NE winds with moderate to locally rough seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic along 50W extends westward along 27N-28N to Florida, and will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen S of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave moving across the region. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and approaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik