Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely.

Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 08N12W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 01.5S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 01N to 07W, and east of 14W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front is over the far NE waters. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States supports fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through Wed. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure, in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions first near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale Warning offshore Colombia.

A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh to strong northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the shearline. Outside of the south- central Caribbean, moderate to fresh easterly winds,and moderate to rough seas, prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds will continue to pulse each night and early morning hours over the waters offshore Colombia through Thu morning. Strong high pressure over the SE of the United States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through Wed. These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall through mid- week. An area of moisture will move across the Leeward Islands late on Wed, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to north of the central Bahamas where it transition to a stationary front to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 27N and W of the front. Elsewhere W of the front, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, with fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W through Thu. A nearly stationary front extends from 31N63W to eastern Cuba. This feature will lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the SE of the United States and the front will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds over the western Atlantic W of the front, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al