Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to 02S44W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection within 360 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports moderate to fresh easterly winds in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf into late week. A weak cold front will move into the Florida Big Bend region of the Gulf late Tue, bringing moderate NE winds, then dissipate on Wed. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf on Sat.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure remains in place over the eastern Gulf of America and also the W Atlantic. The tail end of a stationary front is analyzed to end near 18N66W. From that point on, a surface trough continues to 15N76W. Recent scatterometer satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong NE winds through the northern Caribbean passages as well as in the lee of both Hispaniola and Cuba. Moderate seas prevail in these waters. Moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola tonight and Tue night. The weakening stationary front/trough will gradually dissipate through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Tue through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly eastward.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 23N53W. The front becomes stationary from that point to 19N64W. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 27N and east of the front to 46W, and fresh to strong NW winds north of 28N and west of the front to 56W. Combined seas are 8 to 13 ft north of 25N between 46W and 59W. In the rest of the SW North Atlantic west of 50W, a subtropical ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N72W is sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1005 mb low pressure centered SW of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of 20N and east of 30W. N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to move into the central Atlantic through early Wed while gradually dissipating. A new cold front will enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas. The front is expected to reach from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida early Wed, before stalling, then will slowly weaken and lift northward through Wed night. A strong cold front is expected to move into the waters offshore of NE Florida on Sat.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era