Special Features

Invest AL92:An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands, and is along 22W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of this wave from 06N to 13.5N between 20W and 28W.

See the Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave along 38W. Low pressure near 10.3N38W associated with this wave is likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 36W and 41W

The axis of a tropical wave is along 61.5W extending southward from 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 60W and 63W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 71.5W S of 22N, crossing Hispaniola, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring NE of the Hispaniola coastal waters.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W, S of 21N, extending through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 21.5N and W of 85W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10.3N38W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 11N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 44W and 47.5W.

Gulf Of America

The Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region, where a 1019 mb high is found near 28N84.5W. A surface trough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Bay of Campeche, and is supporting scattered moderate convection over the western half of the Bay of Campeche south of 19.5N. Light winds prevail across the NE Gulf near the high center, while gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned Atlantic ridge will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin.

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated rough seas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. The ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave currently moving across the eastern Caribbean by night, leading to a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central Atlantic.

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 14N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with moderate seas. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across this area. Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin N of 14N between Africa and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will sink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W, and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 900 miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Posted 1 hour, 17 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv