Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW South America will continue to support strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds to gale-force in the offshore waters of Colombia will dissipate by 12Z this morning. Seas to around 14 ft are expected with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern to central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 12N between 37W and 41W.

A tropical wave has been relocated to near 57W, south of 20N and moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 15N between 55W and 58W.

An western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N and moving quickly westward at around 15-20 kt. Any nearby convection is currently observed in the far eastern Tropical Pacific.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from the northern coast of Mauritania at 21N17W to 12N44W. The ITCZ extends from 12N44W to 14N57W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, no convection is noted at this time.

Gulf Of America

High pressure of 1018 mb is remaining over the central Gulf near 25N86W within a broad ridge. As a result, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far NE Gulf, generated by a frontal boundary N of the region. Isolated moderate convection is also occurring ahead of a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal boundary remains just N of the area, and a very moist and unstable airmass prevails over region.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N. Across the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Some convection is present near eastern Honduras and Nicaragua due to the proximity of a tropical wave and lower to mid level support.

For the forecast, elsewhere outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to near-gale trades will continue to expand in coverage across the central Caribbean through this morning as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombian tightens. Fresh trades will continue elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal boundary is just north of the discussion waters. Associated scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of 27N and west of 70W. Fresh to near gale force SW winds and 5 to 9 ft seas are in this region as well, highest winds and seas in areas of convection. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N55W to 21N60W. Upper level divergence in the same region as this trough is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms generally from 20N to 30N between 50W and 60W. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades are noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N, except fresh to strong N to NE winds from offshore Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands, as well as along the northern coast of Hispaniola and immediately east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the areas of fresh to strong winds. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge across the west and central Atlantic will change little through Sat night before it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 70W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era