Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into early next week. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front early Sun, south-southeast of Bermuda near 30N63W. Strong to near-gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 16W, south of 15N based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 10W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 48W and 57W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 74W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, continues southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N51W. No significant convection is observed other than what was already discussed in the tropical wave section above.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough over the western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas can occur near the strongest storms.

For the forecast, the pattern will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through mid week. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean, east of San Andres Island. No other significant convection is observed at this time. A strong Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean, mainly south of 20N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the central Caribbean Tue and Wed as the ridge builds north of the area.

Atlantic Ocean

A few thunderstorms are active this morning near a 1011 mb low pressure area off northeast Florida. The low is along a stationary front between northeast Florida and Bermuda, north of a ridge along 25N. Broad ridging extends from 1028 mb high pressure near 30N30W to the near the Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are likely within 300 nm east of the front, north of 28N. Mainly fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ridge over the deep tropics west of 35W, with fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas east of 35W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. A large area of Saharan dust is also noted over the Atlantic north of 10N and east of 50W, which is likely suppressing convection over the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the low pressure as it moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The combined fronts will shift eastward, reaching from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 25N Sun, with gale-force winds south of Bermuda near 30N63W by Sun afternoon. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida by late Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N.

Posted 1 hour, 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen