Tropical Waves

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 12N to 17N between 80W and 87W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 12N20W then to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough and E of 45W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers over the north- central and northeast Gulf. The Atlantic ridge extends across central Florida toward Louisiana. This pattern is supporting moderate SE winds across the southwest Gulf with 2-4 ft seas, and gentle breezes elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are occurring in the central to SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean through the week. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen