Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean tonight and again Sat night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has been introduced along 19W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 16N and E of 26W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 05N to 20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 35W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days.

A tropical wave has been analyzed from 06N55W to near 20N51W, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 17N between 50W and 62W. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. There is now a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and extends southwestward to 10N38W to 12N52W and then to 09N56W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida and into the Gulf region, and will change little through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are ongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, a tropical wave, with axis along 75W, combined with the Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale- force just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A second tropical wave, with axis along 52W, Invest AL92, should start impacting the Leeward Islands tonight and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are expected with the passage of the latter wave. These weather conditions will shift westward toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the entire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 25N and W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of 25N, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Upper level divergence associated with an upper level trough continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and along the east coast of FL.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge, combined with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday before dissipating by midweek.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams