Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28.5W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 25W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43.5W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 00N to 08N between 40W and the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 66W south of 19N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the axis in the vicinity of the Windward Islands.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 15.5N17W, and continues southwestward to 07N27W and to near 05N43.5W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 33W and 38W.

Gulf Of America

A ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh southeast winds west of about 90W along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the NW Gulf, north of 26.5N and west of 91W.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf for much of the week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through Thu night as a new high center becomes situated over the central Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection across the basin.

Broad high pressure is north of the basin over central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will continue to generally allow for fresh to locally strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the western Caribbean. Seas over the south-central basin waters are 6 to 10 ft. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of 21N and west of 83W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft over the waters south and east of Cuba to near 21N. An area of scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is confined to the southwestern section of the sea south of 14N and west of 77W, primarily due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough that reaches into that part of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting Mon night through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of next week. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will move across the rest of the basin through late Wed, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected mainly east of the wave.

Atlantic Ocean

Broad high pressure that is anchored by a 1024 high center at 28N45W covers the area north of about 18N. The related pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure over the tropical Atlantic are supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across most of the Atlantic south of about 23N along with seas 4 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate variable winds are north of 23N and west of 35W along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Upper-level jet dynamics along the southeastern periphery of a broad upper trough that is along the U.S. East coast are sustaining an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27.5N between 65W and 78W. A broad mid to upper-level low has helped to induce an area of multilayer clouds with embedded patches of rain over the waters northeast of the Lesser Antilles, roughly from 17N to 30N between 50W and 58W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge along 26N will shift slightly south today, and change little through Thu night as surface troughing lingers near and offshore Florida. Moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N will pulse to strong speeds between the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola through the forecast period.

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv