Tropical Waves

A tropical is just SE of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 22W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 10W and 26W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 39W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 30W and 41W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 17N to inland Venezuela, with axis near 68W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over western Venezuela and far eastern Colombia.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 78W, moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 07N36W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from 07N39W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and within 100 nm of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient across the area favors moderate or weaker ESE winds across the western half of the Gulf and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight. Scattered showers are occurring across the central Gulf in advance of a surface trough moving southward across the region.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to reach near gale-force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front is moving across the NE Florida offshore waters west of 65W, bringing showers and scattered tstms to the region. Another surface trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters E of the Turks and Caicos and N or Hispaniola. The Azores High extends a broad ridge elsewhere across the subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the waters W of 25W. East of 25W, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough is moving across the NW waters, and extends from 30N71W to near Melbourne, Florida. The trough will first drift southward trough Wed morning, then begin moving westward late Wed into Thu. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds are expected, except for moderate to fresh winds offshore Hispaniola mainly late in the afternoons into the early evening hours.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams