Tropical Waves

A tropical in the far eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N-10N between 20W-26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is found from 04N-10N between 46W-53W.

A tropical wave is over eastern Carribbean along 63W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. No convection is depicted near the wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 0743W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N-10N and west of 19.5W.

Gulf Of America

Moderate to fresh SE winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over the western Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds along with seas 1 to 3 ft prevail. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the western Gulf, off of Veracruz. Similar convection is also occurring near the Florida Keys waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details regarding a tropical wave moving across the basin.

Strong to near-gale force easterly winds along with seas 8 to 12 ft prevail over the south-cetral Caribbean. Mainly fresh E winds along with seas 5 to 8 ft prevail over the central part of the basin. Fresh easterly winds are also present in the Gulf of Honduras, through the Windward Passage, and the lee of Cuba. Seas within these winds are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevails with seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near gale-force speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

Ridging along 25N combined with lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are contributing toward moderate to fresh trades with seas 5-8 ft over the tropical Atlantic. Some NE strong winds are also occurring between the Canary Islands and just offshore of S Western Sahara. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system on Monday or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW waters north of 28N.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv