Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into the weekend. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft off Colombia Sat night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W south of 15N moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is occurring near the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W south of 18N moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from the Mona Passage south to about 14N between 64W and 70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 76W from 19N southward. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Numerous strong and large convective clusters have recently formed over Colombia and the offshore waters S of 11N and E of 78W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N37W. It resumes at 08N42W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 08N and W of 49W.

Gulf Of America

Numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing along a surface trough running from the Bay of Campeche to the W Gulf. Upper level troughing N of the region as well as convergent surface winds in the E Gulf also support widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of the Gulf N of 24N between 85W and 90W. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the Atlantic across central Florida and over the Gulf will change little through Sat, then shift slightly southeastward afterward. The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N east of 94W, and light to gentle southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N into the weekend. Light and variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W. These winds will gentle to moderate east to southeast winds tonight and change little into next week. The exception will be occasional fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. A mid-level trough combined with a very moist and unstable environment is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of about 28N. This activity is expected to persist into tonight as it lifts north.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela later this week and weekend.

The pressure gradient between ridging over the Atlantic and lower pressures over northern South America continues to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across much of the central to SW Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage. An altimeter pass from early this morning confirmed seas of 13-15 ft occurring offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing across the SW Caribbean, enhanced by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring over the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force Fri night, and Sat night off Colombia. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early next week. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This activity will continue near the tropical wave as it moves rapidly across the central and western Caribbean the next couple of days.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak stationary front segment runs along 30/31N between 34W and 44W. No notable convection or changes in marine conditions are occurring. Ridging prevails across much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevailing across areas S of 22N and W of 35W. Locally strong trades are seen along the northern coast of Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage, as well as from 02N to 08N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Another area of fresh to strong winds from the NE is occurring N of 22N and E of 35W between a stronger pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over Africa. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will change little through the period. The weather pattern will generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams