Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found south of 17N and west of 80W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough and E of 35W.

Gulf Of America

A frontal boundary draped across the southern and southeastern United States, along with diurnal heating and plenty of moisture combine to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of the northern Gulf waters, especially north of 26N. Generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere.

The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and the northern Gulf coast. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas off Yucatan and Bay of Campeche, east of 95W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 29N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the persistent subtropical ridge anchored north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America continue to support strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force trade winds will persist across the central Caribbean through the week. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Convection is suppressed across much of the basin due to a large plume of Saharan dust and mid-latitude dry air.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era