Special Feature

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.5N 85.4W at 20/0900 UTC or 100 nm S of Panama City Florida, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 8 ft in the NE quadrant, where fresh to near gale force winds are present. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring north of 24N and east of 92W. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is offshore W Africa with axis along 18W, extending from 03N to 18N, and moving at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 12W and 24W.

A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 40W, south of 18N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 68W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted over the nearby Caribbean waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N35W and then to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 24W and 32W, and within 60 nm either side of the monsoon/ITCZ W of 37W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two that is currently over the eastern Gulf.

Tropical Depression Two is near 28.5N 85.4W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Elsewhere, a 1016 mb high center is analyzed over the western Gulf at 25N92W.

For the forecast, Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 28.7N 85.8W this afternoon, move to 29.0N 86.3W Tue morning, 29.3N 86.9W Tue afternoon, 29.6N 87.8W Wed morning, 29.8N 89.1W Wed afternoon, and inland to 29.7N 90.9W Thu morning. Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 29.6N 93.0W early Fri.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with the strongest winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in these waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge will weaken some through Thu, allowing the pressure gradient over the Caribbean to relax somewhat. This will diminish tradewinds to moderate to fresh speeds over most of the basin, with still strong winds pulsing in the south-central Caribbean and likely in the Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the north-central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. The gradient between these troughs and higher pressure to the north sustain moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas north of 25N and between 40W and 60W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and between 55W and 75W, along with moderate seas.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally near gale-force N-NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present north of 22N and east of 26W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the water passages between the Canary Islands. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough will move west from about 52W to 70W for the first half of this week, carrying fresh to locally strong winds to the offshore waters E of the Bahamas tonight trough Thu morning. Fresh trades will prevail S of 24N through the perdiod, except for locally strong winds pulsing each evening N of Hispaniola and likely in the approaches of the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere and from late Thu through Fri night.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos