Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 01N12W to 01N30W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 165 nm either N and S of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The gradient of pressure between a surface ridge over the eastern half of the Gulf and low pressure over Mexico extending across the western half of the basin supports moderate to fresh S to SE winds basin-wide. Seas are slight E of 85W and moderate elsewhere. The southerly flow in the western Gulf is lifting northward smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Mariners are advised that this may reduce the visibility in the area. Aside from lower visibility from the smoke mainly over the SW basin, dense fog is ongoing over the northern Gulf waters, N of 26N.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered SE of Bermuda continues to affect the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough seas in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong SE winds and seas to 6 ft are ongoing.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the basin through the forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight into the weekend as N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of both the Bermuda and Azores Highs, which extend a ridge across the region and portions of the tropical Atlantic waters. Between both ridges, a slow moving cold front extends from 31N41W to 27N47W where it stalls while continuing to 24N67W. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, however rough seas to 11 ft prevails E of 70W to about 36W. Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, winds are fresh to locally strong, including the Canary Islands, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E W of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 70W will slowly subside from west to east through early Fri in the wake of a weakening front currently extending from 31N42W to 24N67W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of northern Florida into this weekend as a front passes north of the area. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. On Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly building seas are expected in the wake of the front through early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos