Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through the middle of next week, with gale-force winds occurring through this morning offshore of Colombia, and near gale-force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. The ridge N of the region will shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas to 13 ft are expected during the time of the gale-force winds, and then peak at 10 to 11 ft each of the next few nights.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is near 37W from 08N to 17N, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 32W-44W.

A tropical wave is along 46W from 13N to 24N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant convection currently accompanies the wave.

A tropical wave is along 64W and S of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis and N of 14N.

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of the week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17N and continues southwestward to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 12N64W. Scattered moderate convection is noted alond the ITCZ between 48W and 54W.

Gulf Of America

A low level trough over the northeastern Gulf extends from the Florida panhandle area to near 26N92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this trough. A 1023 mb Bermuda High extends a weak ridge westward along 32N and inland across the northern Gulf states, and drapped across the trough. This weak pressure pattern across the Gulf is supporting mostly light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring across the western coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a thermal trough there. Diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the central portions of the basin, and along the Mexican coast between Cabo Rojo and Veracruz.

For the forecast, the surface trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through today as the trough moves inland. Similar activity is noted in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf with the passage of a diurnal surface trough. The surface ridge will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters north of Colombia and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located just west of Bermuda and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean south of 16N and between 68W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 11 ft across much of this area. Fresh to strong trade accompany a tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean, to the N of 14N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Active weather near the wave is described above. Moderate to fresh trades are over the remainder of the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 5 ft with these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional waters, including the Yucatan Channel, and are supported by upper level troughing extending from the NE Caribbean west- northwestward to the Yucatan channel.

For the forecast, the ridge N of the basin will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later this week, which may combine with an approaching tropical wave to increase easterly trade winds again across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers continue off northeast Florida, N of 29N and W of 80W, to the east of a low level trough moving across the NE Gulf of America and extending into SE Georgia. A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 25N across the basin, broken only by a trough reaching from 31N49W to 27N56W. Saharan air and suspended dust is evident east of this trough, north of 13N. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N and west of 55W into the E Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. South of 22N and east of 55W gentle to moderate trades prevail to the Cabo Verde Islands, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5-8 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to 20N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers across the NW zones off of Florida will diminish today as the surface trough over the northeastern Gulf of America, continues to move NW away from the area. The Bermuda High will shift southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge will drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era