Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. This will increase winds in the south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on Friday night. Very rough seas to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to become less organized. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of development appears to be decreasing. Regardless of development, interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.

There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 02N to 20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days.

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical wave with axis near 47W.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over northern Venezuela and Colombia as well as adjacent waters S of 12N. From 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends southwestward to 09N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 13N between 33W-38W and W of 49W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will change little through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central basin effective Fri night.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, the tropical wave combined with the Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into Sat morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave, Invest AL92, should start impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow evening. Strong to near gale-force winds along with areas of heavy rain are expected Fri night and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds and waves expected may be higher than indicated here.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N55W. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center, mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, generated by Invest AL92 are from 12N to 17N between 41W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era