Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 17W, south of 20N, based on satellite data and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 18N and east of 22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 37W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 51W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over Colombia.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 11N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N40W to 11N54W and then from 11N56W to 10N62W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 2-4 ft south of 25N and east of 95W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few showers are seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche and western Gulf waters, while dry conditions are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

Favorable upper level conditions and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean and off central Cuba. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient supports fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean though Mon. Fresh to strong winds over the central basin will resume Wed night through Fri night as high pressure redevelops E of the Bahamas. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean will move across the western Caribbean through Tue before moving W of the region.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure system near 33N56W to 29N63W and to 31N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 25N and between 51W and 72W. Moderate to locally strong SW-W winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found north of 26N and between 50W and 65W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by a ridge that supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 24N and west of 60W.

The central and eastern tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Similar winds and seas are present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 31W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds south of 22N through tonight. A cold front extending from 31N56W to 30N70W will continue to move across the northern forecast waters on Mon then stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are ahead of the front along with scattered showers and tstms.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado