Special Feature

East Atlantic Significant Swell: Long-period north swell at 13-15 seconds continues propagating southward across portions of the far eastern Atlantic leading to seas of 11 to 13 ft east of about 40W from 15N to 25N. Rough seas cover a much more expansive area, nearly all waters E of 50W. This northerly swell is gradually decaying, and should fall below 12 ft tonight. Rough seas, however, will prevail over much of the eastern Atlantic through Sat.

West Atlantic Significant Swell: Earlier NE Gales in the Atlantic offshore Florida and NE and N of the Bahamas generated very rough seas and decaying swell from these gradually diminishing winds will continue to cause seas in excess of 12 ft today N and W of a frontal boundary that will reside from roughly 31N65W to 25N75W. Seas should fall below 12 ft tonight, with rough seas continuing into the weekend as fresh to strong NE winds continue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both areas of significant swell.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 03N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 00N30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 18W-24W.

Gulf Of America

As the trough over the SE basin as dissipated overnight, convection has ended, leaving the basin dominated by high pressure building southward toward the region from the NE U.S. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are over the NE Gulf, along with rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate.

For the forecast, high pressure building over the eastern U.S. Will support strong NE winds and rough seas across the northeast Gulf through tonight. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas elsewhere across basin through early next week, except for occasional strong E winds off western Cuba.

Caribbean Sea

Earlier convection offshore the Yucatan Peninsula dissipated early this morning, leaving the Caribbean void of any showers and thunderstorms. Trade winds dominate due to the pressure gradient between subtropical ridging to the northern and lower pressure along the Equator. Fresh to strong E winds dominate the SE and south-central basin, with moderate to fresh E winds impacting the remaining waters, except for the NW where light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south-central basin, moderate elsewhere, except slight in the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. By the start of next week, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will commence S of Cuba and in the Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on Significant northerly swell leading to very rough seas over portions of the eastern Atlantic as well as Significant Swell generated by earlier gales offshore Florida in the western Atlantic.

Gale-force winds W of a stalling cold front in the western Atlantic have ended early this morning, but strong NE winds up to 30 kt continue to the W of the boundary that extends from about 31N67W to a 1015 mb low pressure center near 29N70W to just E of the Bahamas. The front then devolves into a surface trough that continues into the Florida Straits. This trough is inducing scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas. Very rough seas prevail where the strong winds are ongoing, with seas of up to 15 ft offshore NE Florida. Ahead of this feature, a mid-level trough oriented along 65W N of 22N is producing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm on either side of its axis.

For most of the rest of the basin, strong surface high pressure of 1029 mb centered SW of the Azores near 37N36W dominates. Its associated broad ridging reaches southward encompassing the area north of about 10N and between 16W and 68W. This is leading to widespread fresh east winds, with a zone of strong winds from 17N to 25N between 25W and 45W. Much of the waters are being impacted by northerly swell, as discussed in the Special Features section above, but areas W of 50W, and E of the impacts of the aforementioned frontal boundary, have generally moderate seas.

In the far eastern Atlantic, low pressure NE of Madeira is no longer inducing gales, but is producing strong N winds N of the Canary Islands and E of 25W, along with very rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong NE to E winds and very rough seas will prevail into tonight N and W of the nearly stationary front. Conditions will gradually improve Fri as the front drifts eastward and weakens, but large NE swell will maintain rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas into the start of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move south of Bermuda, mainly east of 70W, Sun night, and stall along roughly 27N through Mon.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik