Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force tonight through early Sat morning, and Sat night through Sun morning again. Seas under these winds are expected to range from 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia and 4 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 10N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 10N and between 23W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 17N and between 40W and 53W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present in the Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 04N26W and then from 04N29W to 02N51W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the convection.

Gulf Of America

Isolated showers are noted in the Bay of Campeche, near the coast of Veracruz, while generally dry conditions prevail in the rest of the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are found in the NW, south-central and SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will persist over the eastern Gulf through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning off Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics results fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the broad subtropical ridge north of the islands will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Sat. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast in the remainder of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level shortwave north of the Leeward Islands is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 55W and 63W. Elsewhere, a broad Atlantic ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system near 34N49W supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge will persist across the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north- to-south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado