Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A cold front is analyzed from near 31N59W to the central Bahamas, the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of America. Combined seas with northwest swell behind the front is resulting in seas of 16 to 28 ft primarily north of 26N west of the front to near 74W per buoys and ships observations. Gale-force west to northwest winds of 30 to 45 kt are behind the front to near 74W and north of 27N as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data passes, and gale- force southwest winds of 30 to 35 kt are ahead of the front to near 54W and north of 28N. Seas with these winds are 19 to 27 ft in west to northwest swell. Widespread gale-force to near storm- force winds will impact waters north of 27N and east of 76W through Sun night, as the front reaches from near 31N48W to the northern Leeward Islands NE offshore waters by Sun morning, then begins to weaken from 31N43W to 20N53W Mon night. Gale-force winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds by early Tue morning. Very rough seas generated by these winds will propagate SE and impact much of the waters into mid-week, with peak seas of 36 ft possible from 30N to Bermuda on Sun. The very rough seas are likely to finally depart the region to the east by Wed evening.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 08N13W and extends southwestward to near 04N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 00N30W and to 02S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 02N between 28W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from western Cuba NW to the coast of central Texas where it then stalls while a 1025 mb high is located over the SW Gulf near 22N94W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are behind the front over the far eastern basin E of 87W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere across the Gulf with mainly slight seas, except for moderate seas over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the middle of next week, bringing quiescent weather into late next week.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends from the northern Puerto Rico offshore waters across the Dominican Republic to just offshore Colombia. Surface ridging building in the wake of the front tightens the pressure gradient and is currently supporting moderate to fresh NNE winds per recent scatterometer data. Seas behind the front are moderate, except rough to 9 ft offshore Panama and Colombia.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the SW basin behind the front will diminish Sun, then develop offshore Colombia and Hispaniola Sun night. These winds in the central basin will increase and expand in coverage as high pressure builds southward toward the region into the middle of next week. In addition, large NW to N swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on Gale Warnings and areas of significant swell in the western and central Atlantic.

Outside of the Special Feature warning areas, a reinforcing cold front has entered the SW N Atlantic waters and extends from 31N66W to 31N78W. Ahead of the Special Features cold front, a stationary front extends from 31N44W SW to 22N59W to the Dominican Republic to the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the stationary front. The remainder basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge, which is anchored by a 1028 mb high near 27N25W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are south of the high center along with rough seas to 9 ft affecting the waters E of 34W and N of 13N, including the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades are ongoing elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds N of 27N and behind the cold front will spread east as the front progresses, and continue to impact the northern waters through Mon. This front will merge with the stationary front that is over the SE waters by Mon, then move E of the area by Mon night, allowing winds to gradually diminish. Very rough seas will impact most of the waters E of 77W into Tue night, with peak seas along 30N, SE of Bermuda, exceeding 30 ft Sun and Sun night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos