Tropical Waves

An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W from 05N to 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 15W and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 05N to 19N, moving west at around 10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W, from Haiti to Colombia, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the Windward Passage.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N32W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N59W. Convection in the vicinity is primarily associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave and is described in the above section.

Gulf Of America

A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 24N87W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the basin. Convection has dissipated in association with a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, but moderate E to SE winds continue E of the boundary in the eastern Bay. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb, centered near 34N57W, and lower pressure over southern Caribbean due to the passage of a tropical wave and a low center over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin. Seas in this region are rough to 10 ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Broad lift associated with an upper level trough and deep tropical moisture are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection on the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters and the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into the weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft supports scattered moderate convection over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard, Great Bahama Bank, and Bahamas offshore waters W of 73W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed farther east from 24N to 27N between 50W and 60W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

Fresh SW winds are offshore northern Florida to the SE of a stalled front. Fresh trades are present offshore Hispaniola, and in a zone from 22N to 28N between 50W and 65W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds offshore NE Florida will diminish today as high pressure builds west toward the region. A mid- and upper-level trough along the SE U.S. Coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola. A westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into mid-week, then approach the Bahamas by late week, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik