Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed along 39W/40W, south of 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited.

A tropical wave is moving westward across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 77W, south of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. The southern portion of the wave extends into the EPAC along the coast of Colombia where it is enhancing some shower and thunderstorm activity.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 03N between 20W and 37W.

Gulf Of America

The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Straits of Florida with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate wind flow, with slight to moderate seas prevail. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is noted in the eastern Gulf near 87W from 24N to 28N. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough.

Caribbean Sea

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds based on altimeter data. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting portions of Cuba, the area between Cuba and Jamaica, and Hispaniola, including nearby waters. Pockets of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are affecting the remainder of the basin generating isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean into early next week. These trades will continue to bring rough seas, particularly offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

A large mid to upper-level low located NE of the Bahamas continues to support the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the waters from 23N to 28N between 65W and 75W. A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, is analyzed from 31N23W to 23N50W. High pressure of 1025 mb centered E of Bermuda dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather pattern, fresh N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed between the W coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that winds are pulsing to strong force off northern Hispaniola. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid to upper- level low will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly NE of the Bahamas between 65W and 75W. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain reducing visibility. The low is forecast to lift N of the area by early this evening. East winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. A cold front will clip the NE waters by Sun night into Mon followed by fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas. At the same time, expect increasing winds roughly across the area S of 24N and W of 60W, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as the pressure gradient tightens there.

Posted 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr