Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 20W from 08N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 50W, from 06N to 22N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 66W, from the 17N66W southward into Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave over the ocean.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75W, moving W at 15 kt. No convection is currently associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 07N49W, and then resumes from 07N50W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 13N and between 25W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche, especially off western Yucatan. Similar storms are found in the eastern Gulf, mainly near Florida. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas are likely near the mentioned storms.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region through at least mid-week, bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are likely each afternoon and evening along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Mon as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure north of the islands supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Afternoon convection has developed over Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, from Costa Rica to Venezuela, with some of the storms affecting the nearby waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean tonight, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift east tonight, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into mid-week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds again north of the area.

Atlantic Ocean

A couple of surface troughs and divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and west of 68W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present north of 27N and between 63W and 77W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 23N and between 60W and 75W. In the central Atlantic, an upper level trough is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection NE of the Lesser Antilles from 15N to 22N and between 53W and 63W.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft cover much of the central and eastern Pacific, with the highest seas evident to the NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas across the north waters, mainly N of 29N, most of the week as frontal boundaries remain to the north of area. A ridge will dominate the remainder of the forecast region producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

Posted 1 day, 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado