Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high center that is near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the western half of the basin. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Latest buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate light to gentle winds in the eastern portion of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate northeast to east winds in the far southeastern part of the basin near western Cuba and in the Straits of Florida. Seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft are over the remainder of the Gulf, except for lower seas of less than 3 ft in the NE and eastern Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the basin. This pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week.

Caribbean Sea

Water vapor imagery reveals a lingering mid to upper-level trough that extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to across the eastern portion of Hispaniola. A surface trough is analyzed from eastern Cuba southward to 16N79W. Abundant moisture east of these features in combination with dynamics aloft related to the mid to upper-level trough is resulting in an unsettled weather pattern for the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail E of 67W. The unsettled weather conditions will continue for the eastern Caribbean through the weekend.

Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mostly gentle trades are over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough will drift slowly westward and weaken through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad surface trough extends southward from near 28N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. The pressure gradient related to high pressure of 1023 mb north of the area at 32N48W is generally providing for light to gentle winds north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within this area of winds as noted in SoFar buoy and altimeter satellite data. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era