Special Features

Gale Warning E of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a complex low pressure system in the NE Atlantic and a 1024 mb high pressure over Libya results in fresh to near gale-force winds between the Moroccan coast and Madeira. Winds are forecast to strengthen to gale speeds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zone this morning starting at 02/12Z. Rough seas are currently affecting the waters off Morocco and rough seas are expected to develop with the gale-force winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale late this afternoon around 02/21Z. However, strong to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will continue to affect the waters off Morocco and the Canary Islands through Sat. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 04N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and east of 42W.

Gulf Of America

Surface high pressure of 1020 mb located over the E Gulf near 25N88W is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas E of 94W as well as generally dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over northern Texas supports moderate to fresh south to southwest winds W of 94W where seas are up to 5 ft.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail over the Gulf E of 94W through this morning as high pressure remains over the SE Gulf. Fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas will continue to develop over the NW Gulf today as a warm front, associated with a low pressure system moving through the southern U.S., lifts northward. A cold front trailing the low is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sat morning, leading to moderate N winds behind the front. High pressure will build over the basin in the wake of the front Sun into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough, remnant of a frontal boundary extends across Hispaniola and into the north-central Caribbean, supporting isolated showers across the area. Surface ridging extending from a 1020 mb high over the E Gulf of America supports N to NE fresh winds and moderate seas in the SW Caribbean as well as in the lee side of southern Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are also ongoing over the central and E Caribbean due to a broad ridge over the central subtropical waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail over the western Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, through this evening as high pressure continues to build over the Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the central and eastern basin through Mon morning due to a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic waters. Fresh trades will resume again Tue morning due to strong high pressure forecast to build offshore the Carolinas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning for the Agadir region.

A former cold front has transitioned to a stationary front that extends from 31N53W to 23N64W, which is supporting scattered heavy showers within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Surface ridging from high pressure over the Gulf of America is already extending and building in the wake of the front. N of 29N, moderate to locally fresh W winds and moderate to rough seas are ongoing. Moderate SW winds are also ahead of the front. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are occurring north of 27N and east of 30W being generated by a pair of fronts. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will transition back into a cold front later today and exit the area tonight. Fresh westerlies W of the front and N of 29N will diminish to moderate speeds this morning while rough seas within these winds will subside through Sat morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected to develop offshore of northern and central Florida on Sat, ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic Sat night. Fresh N winds and locally rough seas are forecast behind the front, expanding southeastward into early next week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos