Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning, in effect for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira, Meteor and Agadir, until 21/00 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated very large swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft into Sat night, mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage with the remaining very rough seas subsiding below 12 ft near the Canary Islands Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W, then curves southwestward to 04N14W. The ITCZ extends from 04N14W to 01N30W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06S to 05N and west of 16W.

Gulf Of America

Surface ridging anchored by a 1024 mb high near the mouth of the Mississippi River extends basin-wide, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a stationary front SE of the area is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds across the SE Gulf, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and a weakening stationary front over the western Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through today. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected nightly, through the forecast period, across the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Tue night.

Caribbean Sea

A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the offshore waters of northern Costa Rica. A few showers are noted ahead of the front. Fresh to locally strong N winds prevail W of the front, with seas to 7 ft. To the east of these features, gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will continue behind the front, which is forecast to dissipate tonight over the SW Caribbean offshore waters. Afterward, moderate to locally strong NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage through Sun night as high pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will also develop offshore Colombia Sun evening and prevail through Tue night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France and associated large northerly swells across the far NE waters.

A stationary front extends from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A low pressure is now embedded within the front, which is located near 27N70W. Scattered heavy showers are seen mainly ahead of the frontal boundary to about 57W. High pressure building behind the front is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and rough to very rough seas to the west of the front while a broad surface ridge over the central Atlantic supports fresh to strong southerlies ahead of the front and N of 25N. Rough seas to 10 ft are ahead of the front.

In the east Atlantic, a cold front is just E of the Canary Islands, which extends to 21N23W to 23N38W. A reinforcing cold front is approaching the Canary Islands. Strong to near gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas are north of 21N and east of 42W, with hazardous marine conditions in association with this front depicted further in the aforementioned Special Marine section above. The rough seas in NE swell extend much farther S and W, reaching to 15N and as far W as 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas on either side of the front, and N of 25N, will continue to affect the offshores from west to east through the Sun night as the front transitions to a cold front today. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters N of 27N through the middle of the next week.

Posted 1 hour, 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos