Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 10W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. There is a weak pressure gradient over the area, with light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevailing.

For the forecast, the cold front will become stationary early this evening, then lift back N as a warm front tonight. Generally, weak high pressure is over the remainder of the basin. It will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure that builds from the N on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front may bring gale conditions, first over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night, then over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon as strong high pressure builds in the wake of the front. North winds may reach to near gale force across portions of the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night. Brief gusts to gale force will be possible there. Patchy to areas of dense fog may form mainly along and just offshore the Texas coast tonight into Fri morning.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the north central Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, northeast to east winds will pulse to near gale force over the offshore waters of Colombia at night through the period. Broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week. Large N swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, however, seas there will remain at about 8 ft in an E swell through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A trough extends from 31N71W to the northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, prevail over the waters S of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the southeastern United States extending to offshore northern Florida will continue to weaken tonight as a cold front slowly moves across the southeastern United States. Stronger continental high pressure that will build in behind the front will send the front to across the NW part of the area on Fri night, where it will stall through early Sat, and at which time low pressure will form on its western portion and shift northward Sat night into Sun pulling the front back to the N as a warm front. The low will deepen as it tracks eastward well to the N of the forecast waters through Sun night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will then develop over the NW forecast waters Sun and Sun night in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida late Sun night, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front may be attended by scattered and showers and thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N76W to western Cuba by Mon afternoon, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Arctic high pressure will build in behind the front. By late Tue, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front to roughly a line from near 31N70W to 26N80W.

Posted 22 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al