Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. Its axis is along 24W, extending from 06N to 19N, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N e of 18W to the coast of W Africa. Similar convective activity is from 09N to 14N between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 41W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 56W, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 10N between 56W and 60W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues westward to near 11N40W. The ITCZ extends continues from 10N43W to NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted elsewhere.

Gulf Of America

High pressure of 1026 mb located NW of Bermuda near 33N68W extends a ridge westward across Florida into the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, a gentle to locally moderate wind flow prevail. Slight to moderate seas are noted, with the highest seas in the central Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms continue to flare-up over parts of Florida, the Straits of Florida and the E Gulf, mainly E of 87W. Similar convective activity is noted in the Veracruz area. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed elsewhere. An upper-level low, currently located over the western Gulf, is helping to induce convection over most of the basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N68W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to locally moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate with these latter winds. An upper-level low spinning just south of Haiti and Jamaica is supporting scattered showers and tstms between Cuba and Jamaica as well as over the Cayman Islands and surrounding waters. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean offshore western Panama and Costa Rica. Trade wind showers dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic, and runs from 29N78W to the coast of central Cuba near 23N80W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with this trough covering the waters N of 23N and W of 70W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are on either side of the trough axis. This feature will shift westward across Florida today, ushering in deep tropical moisture. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of high pressure, with the main center of 1026 mb situated NW of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa supports moderate to fresh winds N of 27N E of 20W, including the Canary Islands, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail, with locally fresh trades E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, a westward moving surface trough over the northern Bahamas offshores will support showers and thunderstorm activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores through this morning before shifting west of the area tonight into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh winds and moderate seas across the Bahamas offshores through this afternoon. Seas may be locally rough in areas of stronger convection. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening as the Bermuda High shifts southward.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr