Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed along 41W, south of 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited.

A tropical wave is moving westward across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 78W, south of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. The southern portion of the wave extends into the EPAC along the coast of Colombia.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 02N38W and from 01N44.5W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 03N between 10W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 09N between 35W and 53W.

Gulf Of America

The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system supports moderate to fresh SE winds across the Straits of Florida with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate wind flow, with slight to moderate seas prevail. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is noted in the eastern Gulf north of 26N between 85W and 88W. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The related pressure gradient will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend and into early next week, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to affect portions of the western Gulf through the weekend and into next week. Mariners should keep up with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the relatively lower pressures in northern South America. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting portions of Cuba. Pockets of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are affecting the remainder of the basin generating isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean into early next week creating rough seas over these waters. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

A large mid to upper-level low located NE of the Bahamas continues to support the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the waters from 23N to 29N between 73W and 77W. A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, is analyzed from 28N28.5W to 23N55.5W. High pressure of 1026 mb centered E of Bermuda dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather pattern, fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed between the W coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad mid to upper-level trough E of the Bahamas will maintain unsettled weather conditions generally to the E and NE of the Bahamas through early Sat afternoon as the trough becomes less defined. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun afternoon into Mon before stalling near 26N, then begin to weaken and dissipate Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate seas will follow in behind the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as slightly stronger high pressure N of the area shifts east-southeastward leading to a tighter pressure gradient.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv