Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 11N and east of 24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 09N and between 25W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 08N and west of 45W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 14N and between the wave and 61W.

The tropical wave previously in the western Caribbean Sea has moved into the eastern Pacific. Please read the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Weather Discussion for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05N33W and then from 05N36W to 05N49W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the convection.

Gulf Of America

A weak high pressure over the NE Gulf waters dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico will remain inland and drift northward over northeastern Mexico and then into southern Texas through Wed. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek. The pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge across the Gulf region will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf, likely through Thu, as the pressure gradient tightens further.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off Panama, Costa Rica and Cuba. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through early Mon. Then, the ridge will reorganize to the E Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 60W and 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize to the E Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N through Wed. Fresh SW winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W tonight through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 1 hour, 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado