Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: At 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from South Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. A well-defined band of clouds, with embedded showers, is related to the front. Gale force winds are likely ongoing offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, while fresh to strong northerly winds, with higher gusts, are noted elsewhere in the wake of the front. Seas are 8 to 13 ft within these winds. The front will shift quickly southeastward across the basin through tonight. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will prevail behind the front. Gale-force winds offshore of Tampico will diminish by this evening, with gale-force winds offshore of Veracruz through tonight. Winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and shift E-SE across the Gulf Tue through Wed.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The same strong cold front described above currently moving through the Gulf of America has exited the southeast US coast and northern Florida, and now extends from 31N75W to south Florida. Strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas are expected behind the front through early Mon. Seas during this time will build to 12 to 15 ft. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu. While winds are forecast to subside below gale force on Monday, strong to near-gale NW winds will persist over much of the western Atlantic until Tue afternoon, with seas remaining in the 12 to 15 ft range. Conditions are expected to improve thereafter.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough exits Africa through the coast of Liberia near 06.5N11W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 05W and 15W. Part of this convective activity is affecting southern Liberia.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a Gale Warning.

At 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from South Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. Please, see the Special Features section for all the information related to the front, including the forecast.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the W Gulf midweek ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening.

Caribbean Sea

As the subtropical ridge retreats to the central and eastern Atlantic due to a cold front moving across the western Atlantic, the pressure gradient has weakened in the south-central Caribbean, allowing for trades to diminish to mainly fresh speeds in the region. Seas remain near 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail per the latest satellite scatterometer data, with 4 to 7 ft seas. In the western Caribbean, light to gentle NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are observed across the basin, more concentrated over the Greater Antilles, including the waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Isolated to scattered passing showers are expected with these patches of moisture.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds across the south- central Caribbean will diminish overnight. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight. The front will reach from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border by Tue morning, then stall and dissipate from central Dominican Republic to SE Nicaragua midweek. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. The forecast calls for winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft. These marine conditions will also affect the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a W Atlantic Gale Warning.

At 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from 31N75W to south Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the east and central Atlantic with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 24N42W. The main high pressure center of 1030 mb is located W of Iberian Peninsula. A surface trough remains over NW Africa. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are noted around the southern periphery of the ridge N of 20N. Seas generated by a strong extratropical cyclone located N of area are reaching the forecast waters N of 29N between 44W and 60W where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the tropical Atlantic, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE winds are noted between the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure and the trough over NW Africa. These winds extend downwind of the islands to about 24N based on scatterometer data. Seas are near 8 ft within these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas are expected behind the aforementioned cold front through early Mon. Please, see the Special Features section for all the information related to the front, including the forecast.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr