Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has it axis along 21W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 16N between 13W and 29W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring at this time in association with the wave.

A tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 49W and 59W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 81W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring at this time in association with the wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues SW to 06N26W to 04N35W. See the tropical waves section for information about convection.

Gulf Of America

A 1021 mb high is centered over the offshore waters SW of the Tampa Bay area contributing toward moderate or weaker winds E of 89W while a tighter pressure gradient with low pressure over Mexico supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 89W. Seas are 1-3 ft over the eastern half of the Gulf and moderate to 6 ft in the western half of the basin. Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing over the Bay of Campeche and over the northern Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters associated with a surface trough coming off the peninsula into the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure south of the Florida Panhandle will dominate the Gulf through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula nightly through Tue night, then mainly fresh afterward. A moderate pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western and south-central Gulf through early Tue morning before diminishing to gentle to moderate by late Tue morning. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf through the week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a broad ridge N of the area extending to the northern Caribbean and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong to near gale-force NE to E winds over the central Caribbean and fresh trades over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas offshore Colombia are the highest in the 10 to 13 ft range while 8 to 10 ft seas are elsewhere in the central basin. Over the E Caribbean, the trades are moderate to fresh and seas are moderate to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also observed in the Windward Passage with 5 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. Otherwise, heavy showers are offshore eastern Panama and Colombia associated with the E Pacific monsoon. Scattered showers are ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras associated with a surface trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge of high pressure will prevail north of the area near 29N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central basin through Wed morning. These winds are expected to peak at near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia, south of 14N tonight and Tue night. For Wed and Thu, fresh to strong trades should confined to the south-central basin before expanding northward again on Fri. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the week.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 34N38W to about 17N across the Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing a large area of moderate to fresh trades south of 22N. North of Hispaniola, however, the trades are fresh to strong. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles until Wed morning, then moderate winds and seas afterward. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected off northern Hispaniola each night through Sat night. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos