Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands along 27W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the monsoon from 08N to 13N between 19W and 26W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N to 19N with axis near 49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between 40W and 52W.

A tropical wave is moving into the Caribbean along 62W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed ahead of the wave from 12N to 15N between 62W and 65W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar 15N17W and continues SW to 09N24W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 09N45W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 30W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

The remnants of Bertha have devolved into a surface trough over Texas, and will continue to move W away from the region, having no further impact on the basin. A 1018 mb high over the NE Gulf is supporting light to gentle variable winds in that region and gentle to moderate E winds over the SE Gulf. Moderate mainly SE winds prevail over the western basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the west. Scattered convection from a land-breeze is impacting waters within about 90 nm of the the Florida Peninsula, otherwise dry conditions prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift to the central Gulf tonight. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere. An upper level- low located near the Cayman Islands continue to support scattered moderate convection over the NW basin and Windward Passage. In the SW Caribbean, the E Pacific monsoon trough is supporting scattered moderate convection S of 15N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and possibly Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep layer trough is inducing scattered moderate convection N of 24N between 58W and 78W. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades dominate the entire basin due to the gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure to the south. Strong NE winds and seas to 10 ft are impacting waters near the Canary Islands where this gradient is tightest. Elsewhere, mainly moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough that extends from near 29N77W across the NW Bahamas will continue to drift west to central and South Florida tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the waters east of northern Florida late this weekend, preceded by fresh southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik