Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas will build into the 12 to 13 ft range during the time of the gale-force winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is near 29W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 27W and 33W.

The tropical wave is along 41W from 07N to 19N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N and 12N between 37W and 44W.

A tropical wave is near 57W from 09N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 55W and 60W.

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N16N and continues westward to near 11N25W then on to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N42W to 10N55W. Most of the convective activity across the area is related to the tropical waves.

Gulf Of America

A trough over the eastern Gulf extends from the Florida Big Bend area to 25N85W. Another trough is over the Bay of Campeche. This weak pressure pattern is supporting mostly light breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. Diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central and west- central parts of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending southwestward from the Big Bend of Florida into the eastern Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon as the trough moves inland. Similar activity is expected in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf with the passage of a diurnal surface trough. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High westward across the northern Gulf, and will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters north of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located west of Bermuda near 32N68W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across much of this area. Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional waters, and south of western Cuba, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to locally strong speeds during the evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge looks to shift farther southward later next week, which may act to increase easterly trade winds again across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida and the northern Bahamas, related to diffluent flow aloft. A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 25N across the basin, broken only by a trough reaching from 31N45W to 25N55W. Saharan dust is evident mainly east of this trough, north of 15N. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N and west of 60W with 4-6 ft seas, fresh to strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas over the Canary Islands, and mostly gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a low level trough extending across northern Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to 75W will shift northwestward today, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Otherwise, a 1023 mb Bermuda High and an attendant ridge will shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge then looks to drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen