Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W, S of 11N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a weak eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, S of 17N from near the Anegada Passage to central Venezuela, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 01N28W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N31W to near 00N48W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 02N to 08N between 13W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring S of 05N and W of 24W.

Gulf Of America

Lower pressure associated with a cold front over the south-central US is driving fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf W of 87W, where seas of 3-6 ft prevail. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf with lower pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southeast winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. Similar winds will pulse from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico into early today. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Looking ahead, another weak front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters by the end of the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure over the west Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas across much of the central and eastern Caribbean, confirmed by recent scatterometer data. Winds are locally fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, with seas of 6-8 ft in this area. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate to locally fresh trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front is analyzed SE of Bermuda from 31N59W southwestward to near 26.5N67W. A stationary front then continues from that point to 27.5W76W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and ahead of the front N of 24N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate E winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring behind the front, while mainly gentle S winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring ahead of the front. A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic from 27N37W to 24N26W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure to the north supports fresh to strong NE winds and 6-8 ft seas N of 22N between the Canary Islands and 40W. Much of the remaining Atlantic S of 20N is seeing moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail, while areas N of 20N and away from any aforementioned features are seeing gentle to moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extending from 31N59W to 26N69W will shift E of 55W early on Thu. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are SE of the front. Another weak cold front will move off northern Florida Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, may precede this front as it emerges off the coast. Elsewhere, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Winds may freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams