Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to gale-force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Scatterometer data from 04/2132Z UTC showed strong to gale-force winds peaking at 34 kt occurring off the coast of Morocco. Gale- force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas 10 ft and higher. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 16W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 08N and between 37W and 45W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 12N and between 45W and 60W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across northern South America.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04N43W, and then from 03N45W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. The convection near these features has been described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extend through the Florida Straits to near 25N86W in the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a weak surface is analyzed along 89W, from the Yucatan peninsula to 28N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over the SE Gulf waters, while diurnal storms across the Gulf coast of Mexico extend into the nearshore waters. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present in the northern and eastern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening over the south-central and southeast Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri as a ridge builds from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into early next week, except for occasionally fresh to strong pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

A 1030 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores extends southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The storm activity is diminishing in the SW Caribbean, while a few showers are seen in the lee of Cuba. Pockets of low-level moisture are also evident across the basin sustaining fast-moving, shallow showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exceptions will be fresh to strong pulses off western Venezuela tonight, and in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds and building are possible over the northwest and north-central Caribbean late Sat through early next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas, followed by a stationary front to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are present ahead of the front, especially north of 27N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas across much of the central and western tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado