Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 25W and 35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 03N to 17N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 45W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 05N to 23N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection currently accompanies the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave N of 17N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from 11N50W to 10N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 17W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High westward across the northern Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail across the discussion area.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the general wind flow pattern across basin through Fri before it reorganizes to a weak high center over the NE Gulf through Sat night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail across the basin, with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and lower pressure in northern South America is supporting fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu allowing for the trades to significantly expand in coverage to cover the eastern portion of the basin into early Sat. Winds are expected to reach near-gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night, except Wed night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 30N67W and a 1023 mb high centered near 27N41W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the waters N of 22N, with slight to moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will shift southward to along 28N Tue and to near 26N by Thu and change little into Sat. The gradient will tighten over the southern portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Of note, a tropical wave emerging off the coast of west Africa is expected to interact with an area of low pressure that is located a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al