Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. Its axis is along 25W, extending from 06N to 19N, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 20W and 25W.

A tropical wave is near 44W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 57W, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues westward to near 11N40W. The ITCZ extends continues from 10N43W to NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted elsewhere.

Gulf Of America

The Atlantic ridge extends across the Carolinas and into the north-central Gulf. A trough is moving westward through Florida. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 1-3 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the central Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N69W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to locally moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate with these latter winds. An upper- level low spinning just south of Haiti and Jamaica is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Jamaica as well as over the Cayman Islands and surrounding waters. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean offshore western Panama and Costa Rica. Trade wind showers dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, strengthening the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speeds during the daytime and to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse to strong speeds mainly near the Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern Bahamas and off the northeast coast of Florida, following a trough currently moving into the Florida peninsula. Broad ridging dominates the Atlantic north of 25N, supporting E to SE winds and 4-6 ft across the basin, except for fresh to strong NE winds near the Canary Islands. Saharan dust covers the Atlantic north of 15N and east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough over Florida will bring fresh winds and moderate seas across the Bahamas offshores through this afternoon. Seas may be locally rough in areas of stronger convection. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening as the Bermuda High shifts southward.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen