Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W from 02N to 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave from 07N to 09N, and within 60 nm east of the northern portion of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 49W from 02N to 18N moving westward at around 10 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 12N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W/66W south of 19N near the Anegada Passage to central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N to 13N between 65W and 69W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues south-southwestward to 09N23W and 06N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 07N40W and to just east of a tropical wave near 08N48W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is just offshore the coast of Africa from 04N to 15N and reaches west to near 19N. This convection is in advance of the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-46W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 30W-37W.

Gulf Of America

A high pressure ridge extends westward along 26N from a subtropical high located in the Atlantic to across Florida, and to the central Gulf. A trough has emerged off the Yucatan Peninsula. It is analyzed from near 25N90W to just inland Mexico at 19N93W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds across much of the Gulf. Seas are in the range of 4 to 7 ft over most of the Gulf, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in spots over the NW and west-central Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the present synoptic pattern will change little going into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally support mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the eastern Gulf through today. Winds over the western and central Gulf will change little through early Mon, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds afterward. Winds over the eastern Gulf become light to gentle in speeds beginning tonight as weak high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between broad central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America is generally sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and northwestern sections of the sea as noted by satellite altimeter data. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are across the remainder of the Caribbean.

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted in the southwestern Caribbean from 10N to 14N between 77W and 82W. This activity is related to the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that protrudes eastward across northern Costa Rica and to the northwest part of Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere from 10N to 15N west of 74W to along the coast of Nicaragua. Similar activity is over the Windward Passage and just south of eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the central Atlantic will change little into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale-force tonight. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are expected elsewhere from 12N to 18N west of 80W through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

A rather ill-defined trough extends from 31N30W to 26N38W and to near 26N46W. No significant convection is present near the trough. High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 27N58W. High pressure covers the waters north of about 20N. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas to exist across much of the Atlantic south about 21N as well as between the Bahamas and Cuba. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 21N east of 73W while fresh southwest winds are over the waters east of northern Florida to near 73W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft north of 21N, except for lower seas of 2 to 3 ft from 25N to 28N between 57W and 76W, and over the waters west of the Bahamas, including the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure over the basin will begin to shift slightly eastward tonight as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. The front will move offshore northeast Florida during the weekend, then stall and weaken. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected north of 30N and east to near 72W through tonight. Moderate to fresh nightly pulsing fresh to strong winds south of 22N will continue into early next week.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre