Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from South Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong to gale-force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas up to 16-17 ft are found behind the front. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico, and also offshore Veracruz where the strongest winds of 40 to 45 kt were noted. Recent observations inland of Puerto Veracruz show fresh to strong sustained winds with gusts to near gale force. Gale conditions are forecast to prevail offshore of Tampico through this evening, and offshore of Veracruz through late tonight. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean tonight and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure develops in the north-central Gulf along the next cold front. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening. Another round of gale-force winds will likely begin near Veracruz, in the wake of the front by Fri night.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches from 31N76W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are blowing on either side of the front with moderate to rough seas. As the cold front continues to move quickly across the coastal and offshore waters of E Florida, frequent gusts to gale-force of 35 to 40 kt are expected behind the front through early Tue morning. Rough seas are forecast within these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant rainfall event: A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. As the front becomes nearly stationary over the NW Caribbean, the northerly winds behind it will transport abundant tropical moisture into the Gulf of Honduras and northmen Honduras, where the onshore flow will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place across southern Mexico and northern Central America supporting more shower and thunderstorm activity with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches due to orographic effects. The heaviest rainfall are expected in southern Mexico late tonight into Tue, and in northern Guatemala and Belize Tue into early Wed, and well as in northern Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to the equator at 30W to NE Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed S of 04N between 24W and 36W. Moderate to strong convection is near the western end of the ITCZ over NE Brazil.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.

As previously mentioned, a strong cold front extends from South Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air stratocumulus clouds across the Gulf waters behind the front. Satellite imagery also show that thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, mainly south of 24N, and stationary front is indicated there. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are associated with the frontal boundary. Wave heights are up to 14 ft at buoy 42055 in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more information.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located SE of Bermuda, has retreat E as a cold front moves out of South Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula. Currently, generally fair conditions prevail across the Caribbean, except for a few showers moving quickly in the generally fresh trade wind flow across the basin. The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia, and moderate to locally fresh trades across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed across the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles due to large E swell.

For the forecast, the above mentioned high pressure will slide eastward and weaken through Tue. This system will maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea, supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside, with seas lingering near 8 ft through Wed afternoon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. Mainly moderate winds and seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean beginning Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure centered SE of Bermuda near 31N45W southwestward towards the Bahamas. The ridge is shifting east ahead of a strong cold front that is currently moving across South Florida. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are on either side of the front. Farther east, a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N30W and extends westward to 27N50W where it becomes a stationary front to near 29N60W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are seen across the deep tropics south of the ridge, specifically south of 22N, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move quickly across the NW part of our waters. Frequent gusts to gale-force are likely tonight in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop along the frontal boundary tonight. The front will reach from near 31N71W to the NW Bahamas tonight, from near 31N54W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu. Another cold front will likely enter our westernmost waters on Sat.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr