Tropical Waves

The tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 24W has weakened and dissipated, and thus has been removed from the 1200 UTC surface analysis.

An Atlantic tropical wave along 60W is approaching the Windward Islands S of 16N, and is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind this wave, S of 09N between 50W and 60W.

The Caribbean tropical wave previously analyzed near 85W has moved inland over central America, and is now analyzed at 87W with the south end of the wave axis extending into the Pacific. Please see the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific for information on this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, then runs southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 05N between 23W and 36W.

Gulf Of America

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters forcing fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions dominate the basin, although some weakening thunderstorms are ongoing in the far W/NW Gulf waters along the coasts of TX and NE Mexico.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to strong each evening through Wed night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Beginning on Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean, as the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches across the basin along 10N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing across the Windward Passage as well as the waters near Hispaniola and Cuba. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high near Bermuda and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades across the central to SW Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The remainder of the Caribbean is seeing gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of Honduras today and tonight before weakening tomorrow. Large E to SE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters today and tonight before diminishing tomorrow.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas and scattered showers across the southern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough and upper level low in the region. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N43W and extends to 29N64W. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds behind the front. Otherwise, subtropical ridging dominates, resulting in fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 23N. Areas N of 23N and away from any aforementioned features are seeing gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along a surface trough to the east of the Bahamas through Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola afternoons into the evenings for the next several days. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through the weekend.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams