Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 18N between 20W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N between 45W and 55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 15N to 17N between 70W and 72W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Western Sahara near 24N15W and dives southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure area near 16N26W and then to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 08N59W.

Gulf Of America

Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the east-central Gulf. 1017 mb surface high pressure is centered north of the Yucatan Channel near 23N85W. This pattern is supporting moderate W winds and 2-4 ft seas off the northern Gulf coast, and light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf and over mostly the eastern portion of the north-central Gulf into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh southwest winds look to develop ahead of the front over the far northern Gulf late this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off central Belize, and off northeastern Costa Rica and southeastern Nicaragua. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the persistent enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through the rest of the weekend and into most of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean near 68W, is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. The wave will quickly continue westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will change little through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen