Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 30N71W to the northwest Bahamas. The low pressure and frontal boundary will continue to move eastward and passing Bermuda through this evening. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the low pressure and front, with near gale to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas expected southeast of Bermuda this afternoon. The front will stall this evening, and winds will fall below gale force tonight.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39.5W, south of 16N and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 50.5W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the EPAC, and more information can be found in the TWDEP.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 11N and east of 27W. Similar convection is found from 04N to 08N between 44W and 54W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture support scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin. Outside of the convection, gentle to moderate variable winds along with seas 2 to 3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a modest surface ridge at the northeastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds and slight seas into Wed. A late-season cold front will enter the northeastern Gulf Wed night, then stall from near Punta Gorda, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas behind this front and also north of the Yucatan Peninsula. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the eastern and central Gulf through midweek.

Caribbean Sea

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE to E winds over the central Caribbean. Seas within these winds are 7 to 10 ft. This is due to the very tight pressure gradient between the expanding 1035 mb high pressure system south of the Azores and very low pressures in northern Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern basin through Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. Fresh to strong winds with moderate seas are expected at the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Afterward, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail for most the of the Caribbean Sea through the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for waters southeast of Bermuda today.

A frontal boundary extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 30N71W to the northwest Bahamas. A warm front extends from the low to 30N65W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the frontal boundary north of 24N and between 68W and 78W. Moderate to locally strong E to SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 26N and east of 71W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to the warm front. Fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the front to 26N and between 58W and 64W. Elsewhere west of 71W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high pressure and near Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low pressure and frontal boundary will continue to move eastward and passing Bermuda through this evening. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the low pressure and front, with near gale to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas expected southeast of Bermuda this afternoon. The front will stall from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas this evening, ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the waters off northeast Florida accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into Fri after the fronts merge, then weaken in place from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas with broad high pressure building off the Carolinas. Farther south, strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv