Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over Venezuela and Colombia.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 20W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of the area continues to generate some convection over the northern and eastern waters. However, the most favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms has moved eastward into the western Atlantic. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will prevail into mid-week in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid- and upper-level trough sets up over the region.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge is centered just east of Bermuda forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean. An altimeter satellite pass from a few hours ago showed seas up to 10 ft off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter seas prevail.

An upper-level trough north of the area and diurnal heating support numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across Cuba and nearby waters. A few showers are seen in Hispaniola and the SW Caribbean, while drier conditions persist in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin through the remainder of the week and into next weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds may pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough across the eastern United States supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western Atlantic, especially west of 72W. Meanwhile, an upper-level low centered near 27N55W is producing a few showers north of 22N and between 43W and 70W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate seas are evident north of 20N and west of 30W. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N-NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue tonight before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of the U.S. Will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough may bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas from east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the NW waters by the end of the week.

Posted 1 hour, 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado