Tropical Waves

A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier tonight. The wave axis extends from 05N to 16N, and is moving west at approximately at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate convection extends from 05N to 15N between 14W and 23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 19N with axis nearn 37W, moving west at approximately at 5-10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W, extending southward from 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. The wave continues to generate scattered heavy showers over portions of both Venezuela and Colombia.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N34W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave E of the Cape Verde Islands, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 38W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

Recent scatterometer data confirms a center of high pressure over the E Gulf near 24N87W, which has a pressure of 1015 mb. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds across the Gulf waters N of 23N and E of 94W. In the Bay of the Campeche, a surface trough is generating some showers and supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds. Over the far western Gulf, W of 94W, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico supports moderate SE to S winds over the NW basin. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will prevail into Wed in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid-and upper-level trough sets up over the region.

Caribbean Sea

The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb located near 34N57W, and lower pressure over the Caribbean due to the passage of a tropical wave and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas in this region are rough to 10 ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Scattered heavy showers are ongoing in the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters and the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into next weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard, Great Bahama Bank and Bahamas offshore waters W of 73W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds are offshore NE Florida ahead of a weak frontal boundary N of the area and a prefrontal trough. Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing across the offshores between 55W and 65W as well as off northern Hispaniola. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N-NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue tonight before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of U.S. Will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough will likely bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas from east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the NW waters by the end of the week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos