Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has been re-analyzed to the east, and is now positioned with an axis near 22W, from 02N to 16W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this evening.

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 49W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 45W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, S of Jamaica, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and continues southwestward to 07N31W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 09N46W where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then continues from 07N50W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 55W and 60W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered moderate convection is occurring near surface trough axes along 95W from 20N to 25N and SE from the mouth of the Mississippi River to around 26N85W. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is leading to light to gentle winds and slight seas through the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will continue to dominate the basin for the remainder of the week. A weakening frontal trough extending from SE Louisiana to offshore of SW Florida will gradually dissipate through Thu, with scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting along the trough. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sun night due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas this afternoon, and will generally remain in place through the weekend. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through Sun. Expect winds to reach near gale- force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper- level trough sinks across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front is across the NW waters, extending from 31N71W to the NW Bahamas. The boundary also extends NE to the north of area, and convection sags S of 31N to around 29N between 50W and 60W in association with this portion of the front. A surface trough along 70W E of the Bahamas is inducing scattered moderate convection. The Azores High extends a ridge across the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds across the waters S of 22N are moderate to fresh with moderate seas to 6 ft. N of 22N and E of 35W, a tighter pressure gradient with lower pressures over NW Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds along with rough seas to 10 ft, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas this afternoon. A weakening stationary front is across the NW waters, from 31N71.5W through the NW Bahamas to the south- central coast of Florida. The front will gradually dissipate through Thu while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. Coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Posted 1 hour, 26 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik