Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, S of 14N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W and extends SW to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds persist over the southern Gulf, south of 24N, between weak high pressure extending from the western Gulf to northeast Gulf, and lower pressure farther southwest, anchored by T.S. Cristina off the Pacific coast of El Salvador. Seas are 5-7 ft in the south-central Gulf, and 2-4 feet elsewhere. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Gulf, along the coasts of Tabasco and Veracrz. A few showers and thunderstorms are active from 24N to 26N supported by upper level divergent flow.

For the forecast, the surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf region the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf through much of this week. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will support fresh E winds pulsing to strong speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night, accompanied by numerous thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough seas across the west-central Gulf into Sun.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador supports moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas from the central Caribbean to the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador supports fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas from south-central to the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, a ridge will build across the western Atlantic Thu night through Sun. Expect fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas over the northwest Caribbean west of 85W Thu into Sat, between the ridge and the remnant of Cristina over southern Mexico. The building ridge will also support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

Thunderstorms persist near weak 1015 mb low pressure 25N64W on the southern end of a surface trough extending to 30N55W. A weak stationary front reaches from the Carolinas to south of Bermuda. These features are distrupting the typical subtropical ridge over the area west of 60W, supporting only gentle breezes and 2-4 ft seas. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure over the Azores ot 25N50W. Elsewhere east of 35W, the pattern is supporting gentle SE to S breezes and 5-6 ft seas along the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of the ridge axis. East of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds 7-9 ft seas are noted north of 24N, and gentle to moderate NE breezes and 4-6 ft seas south of 24N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as it moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front currently between northeast Florida and Bermuda will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The Atlantic ridge will build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through Sun night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen