Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W, S of 10N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W S of 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 00N27W. The ITCZ continues from 00N27W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and 30W, and S of 03N between 30W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds, with moderate or lower seas, prevail across the gulf waters.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate by Tue. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf starting Tue as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Little change is anticipated into the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean. Light and variable winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras in the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N62W to the Florida Straits. Weak low pressure of 1015 mb is meandering along this boundary over the NW Bahamas. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail west of the front. Farther east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 28N33W. The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 31N49W. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 15N between 37W and 60W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Light winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, generally prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front and low will remain stationary into Tue before the low moves E and the front transitions into a cold front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds N of the front will slowly diminish into mid- week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al