Tropical Waves

The tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa earlier this morning has it axis along 18.5W, south of 15N. This wave is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 06N between 15W and 20W.

A second tropical wave is near 31W, south of 13N moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between 25W and 34W.

Another tropical wave is along 56W, south of 13.5N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 10N between 48W and 57W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 65W, south of 14.5N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over portions of Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 81W, south of 18.5N into the EPAC region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the southern portion of the wave axis and along the eastern end of the EPAC monsoon trough.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of western Africa near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N33W. The ITCZ extends from 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N49.5W where scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N W of 42W. Additional convection across the area is related to the above mentioned tropical waves.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the western Atlantic and the SE of the United States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight to moderate within these wind speeds. A surface trough over the western part of the basin is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 26N and west of 91W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 28N between 86W and 89W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through at least early next week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. Slight to moderate seas will prevail with these winds.

Caribbean Sea

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details.

High pressure north of the area combined with lower pressures across South America supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring just south of the Hispaniola, Jamaica, and in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N61W to near 25N74W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 27N66W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along these two features. High pressure over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic follows this frontal boundary. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores 34N37W. Under the influence of this feature, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of front to about 43W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 43W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to weaken today and dissipate early on Sun. A surface trough will linger and drift westward through Mon night. A cold front will reach from near 31N59W by late Tue, from near 30N55W to 26N63W and stationary to 27N69W, then shift E of the area Thu as a high center N of the area slides eastward along 33N. This weather pattern will generally support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into next week, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between Hispaniola and Cuba beginning late Wed.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv