Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extending southwestward from Cedar Key, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, will continue to move southeastward and out of the Gulf tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the front. A corridor of gales in the west-central Gulf behind the front will spread eastward across the central and east-central Gulf today, immediately following the frontal passage. These gales are expected to end over the east-central Gulf early this evening. Additional gale conditions offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will continue today. Rough seas will encompass the basin behind the front, with very rough seas through the western and southern Gulf building today and continuing through tonight. Conditions will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall at Belize, Honduras and Guatemala: Interaction between a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front along with abundant tropical moisture will increase the potential for heavy rainfall across Belize and Honduras today through Thursday, especially from Tuesday through Wednesday. Heaviest rainfall is forecast to be near northern Honduras and southeastern Belize. This will greatly increase the chance of flashing and urban flooding, and mudslides in hilly terrains. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast, then extends southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 03N20W across 01N30W to 03N41W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between 08W and 23W, and from 02N to 08N between 27W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends southwestward from Cedar Key, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, which is generating scattered showers over the NE and SW Gulf. Gale force N to NW winds follow the front along with rough to very rough seas to 15 ft over the west-central basin. Over the NW Gulf N winds are strong to near gale-force and seas rough to 11 ft. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker, however these conditions will rapidly worsen as the front continue to race towards the SE basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and out of the basin tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the front. A corridor of gales in the west-central Gulf behind the front will spread eastward across the central and east-central Gulf today, immediately following the frontal passage. These gales are expected to end over the east-central Gulf early this evening. Additional gale conditions offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will continue today. Rough seas will encompass the basin behind the front, with very rough seas through the western and southern Gulf building today and continuing through tonight. Conditions will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the SE United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras.

A surface trough accompanied by surging tropical moisture is generating scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the NW basin, including waters near the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a robust trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident at the eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Mainly light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail over the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central Caribbean today, before diminishing some tonight into mid-week as a cold front enters the NW basin. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds will pulse to near gale each night through Tue night. The aforementioned cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating. This will lead to thunderstorms and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters through mid-week, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front through Tue night.

Atlantic Ocean

A strong Azores High of 1034 mb extends a ridge across the entire subtropical Atlantic waters and into the deep tropics to near 15N. A few surface troughs are within the central and SW periphery of the ridge causing areas of scattered showers. Over the SW N Atlantic waters W of 70W, an approaching cold front tightens the pressure gradient and support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas to 7 ft. A tighter pressure gradient over the central and eastern Atlantic supports fresh to strong NE to E winds from W Africa to 65W along with rough to very rough seas to 12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a building Bermuda-Azores High will enhance the trades up to fresh speeds east of 65W through Thu. A cold front will emerge off the SE United States coast later this morning, accompanied by strong to near gale-force winds north of 27N. Winds will diminish Mon as the pressure gradient in the region diminishes. The front will continue to weaken and stall from Bermuda through The Bahamas on Tue. However, with high pressure building over the SE United States, an increasing pressure gradient W of the frontal boundary will boost NW winds to fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into the middle of the week.

Posted 1 hour, 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos