Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderated convection is present from 06N to 13N and between 25W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident from 11N to 15N and between 58W and 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted over the Caribbean waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 17N and east of 23W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the Gulf waters support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern and central Bay of Campeche. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found in the western Gulf waters north of 22N and west of 94W. In the remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. A few showers are seen in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in Colombia supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, especially off Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh to locally near gale-force trades, along with rough seas, across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues westward to a 1017 mb low near 30N58W. A trough extends from the low to 26N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present north of 27N and between 47W and 60W. A few showers are evident west of 60W and north of 24N. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of a line from 31N25W to the eastern Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken to a trough today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado