Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 26W from 07N to 17N, moving west at around 5-10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished early this morning.

A tropical wave is along 43W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 82W, extending southward from the Cayman Islands, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the lee of Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 10N26W to 08N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 30W and 40W and from 06N to 10N between 44W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

A 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 26N86W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the basin. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is producing moderate NE to E winds over the SW basin. Seas basin-wide are 1-4 ft. A mid- and upper-level trough is leading to scattered moderate convection offshore western Cuba, and the aforementioned trough is causing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas through the weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, along with moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the basin.

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas persist across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the E Caribbean and NW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support strong trades in the south-central basin, and as the gradient tightenings into the weekend, winds will increase to near gale. Fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extending from 27N63W to 21N64W is generating scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 57W and 66W. Fresh E winds and seas to 8 ft area also occurring in this zone. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a mid- and upper-level trough along the SE U.S. Coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas today. A westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into tonight, then approach the Bahamas before shifting west of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. Weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters this weekend, bringing tranquil marine conditions.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik