Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 11N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 07N and between 17W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 14N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present near the trough axis in the Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 02N35W and to 02N50W. Isolated showers are evident near the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A tight pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge over the Atlantic and lower pressures over Mexico sustain fresh to strong E-SE winds and moderate seas over much of the western and south-central Gulf waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are noted across the basin, except for some showers in the nearshore waters of western Florida, Veracruz and Tamaulipas.

Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America are causing hazy conditions in the western Gulf waters, with the worse conditions occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Mariners are advised to use caution due to decreased visibilities in these waters.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf into late week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings through midweek.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft and diurnal heating sustain a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of Cuba and Hispaniola. Tight pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. Rough seas associated with large E swell impact the water passages of the Lesser Antilles

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean through Wednesday morning as well. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters through Tue, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N59W to 25N71W. Coupling with an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 21N and between 65W and 72W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found across much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 60W.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge centered near 31N37W. Tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas north of 17N and east of 21W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are found south of 25N and between 21W and 60W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and rough seas with E swell overnight east of the Leeward Islands. A weak frontal remnant trough extending from 31N58W to E of the Bahamas will dissipate overnight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through midweek.

Posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado