Tropical Waves

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 30W S of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W S of 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 60W south of 16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave.

The two previous waves in the Caribbean have merged. The axis of the merged tropical wave is near 77W south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 06N29W. It resumes near 06N31W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 11W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 36W and 46W.

Gulf Of America

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is centered over the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the waters S of 25N and W of 87W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over these waters. Light winds, and seas of 2 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little near a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas through Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters W of 85W, as well as over the waters S of 15N between 66W and 75W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through Sun. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 24N69W to 20N75W. Scattered convection is SE of the trough. The remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 33N45W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, generally prevail over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al