Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from the Tampa Bay area to 28N88W, followed by a stationary front to SE Louisiana. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found behind the front and east of 87W. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system centered near 28N91W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate across the NE Gulf on Wed, while weak high pressure will again move over the northeast Gulf Wed night through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning and reach from extreme S Florida to NE Mexico by Sun morning.

Caribbean Sea

A weak surface trough is analyzed from 12N81W to 19N84W and a few showers are seen in the central and NW Caribbean, with the strongest convection occurring SW of Jamaica. The subtropical ridge centered north of the area supports fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas off NW Colombia. Fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident off southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and north of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola overnight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia tonight and persist through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly northeastward..

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N65W and continues southwestward to eastern Florida near 28N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the front. The pressure gradient between the ridge off the NE United States and the aforementioned front results in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas behind the frontal boundary. The remainder of the area (west of 55W) is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1011 mb low is nearly stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate trades and moderate to occasionally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from 31N64W to Vero Beach, Florida overnight, then begin to stall and quickly weaken. Winds and seas will then diminish through Wed night as the front drifts northward and dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida early Sat, and reach from 31N62W to Miami by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will dominate all waters north of the front through Sun night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado