Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands with axis near 26W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the monsoon trough region from 07N to 10N between 24W and 29W.

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 46W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N and between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is moving across western Hispaniola and the central Caribbean. The wave axis is near 74W, south of 19N, and moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are ongoing in the Windward Passage while scattered showers are offshore Colombia and E Panama.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with axis near 84W, south of 19N, and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is offshore Costa Rica and western Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 22N16W and continues southwestward to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropivcal waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 15N between 12W and 20W, and from 06N to 09N west of 50W.

Gulf Of America

The Gulf is dominated by a weak ridge that supports gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas W of 90W, and light to gentle winds and slight seas over the remainder Gulf. There are two surface troughs, one extending from SE Louisiana to the SW Florida seaboard, which is generating scattered showers over the NE Gulf, and a second trough is in the Bay of Campeche where is generating similar shower activity.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf region the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sun night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sun night, except offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to reach near gale-force at night. Moderate to rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front is across the NW waters, extending from 31N72W to 28N79W. Scattered showers are ahead of the front to about 68W and N of 27N. Farther east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 31N58W to 28N66W, which is generating scattered showers between 55W and 62W. The Azores High extends a ridge across the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds across these waters are moderate or weaker with moderate seas to 6 ft. East of 34W, a tighter pressure gradient with lower pressures over NW Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds along with rough seas to 10 ft, including the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stattionary front will dissipate later today and its remnant trough will drift southward before moving WNW toward the southeastern U.S. Coast late tonight into Thu. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds are expected, except for moderate to fresh winds offshore Hispaniola mainly late in the afternoons into the early evening hours.

Posted 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos