Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28N, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 14N between 24W and 34.5W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 66W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed south of 11.5N between 63W and the wave axis.

The tropical wave previously analyzed over the western Caribbean is now been discussed in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP).

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

Th monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N20W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 13N and east of 24W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 34.5W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure centered near 27N89.5W supports moderate to locally fresh W-NW winds across the NE Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the southern Gulf. Slight seas to 3 ft dominate the basin. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is depicted over the Bay of Campeche is association to a surface trough over the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge recently north of the Caribbean has shifted eastward as a frontal system has moved southward of 30N. The remnants of the ridge extend from the central Atlantic to N of Puerto Rico along 18N. This weakened pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft from 66W into Central America, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Thunderstorms are active across the coastal waters and inland from Costa Rica to NE Honduras, behind a tropical wave.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pres near 27N65W, followed by a weak cold front to the southwest. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the stationary front. Moderate SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted south of the front to 26N between 31W and 65W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge centered on a 1027 mb high near 40W33W, that extends southwestward to just north of the NE Caribbean. Trade winds across the Atlantic S of 21N and W of 30W are moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the far eastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and southern Western Sahara. Saharan Air continues to dominate the Atlantic basin N of 12N and east of the Caribbean, as well as the southern Bahamas, central and NW Caribbean and into the SE Gulf of America.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundaries will weaken to a frontal trough tonight into Wed. Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected south of 22N.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv