Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then curves southwestward to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S36W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of 15W. Numerous moderate convection is from 07S to 02S between 23W and 36W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward into the Florida Straits. A 1017 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the central Gulf. A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon night into mid-week.

Caribbean Sea

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the lee side of central Cuba, and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage due to a surface trough over the area. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high is NE of the northern Bahamas and is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas basin- wide.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal boundary, currently located north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through mid-week.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed from 24N53W to 21N70W to 22N78W. The trough is supporting scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank while an area of showers and thunderstorms continue to migrate from the Florida Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the trough and the areas of showers is a 1017 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is supporting moderate or lighter NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. A weakening cold front extends from 31N39W and extends to 28.5N45W. East of this front, a 1021 mb high is centered near 27N26W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front to 40W and N of 25N. Seas with these winds are 5 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and the coast of NW Africa with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will lift northward this weekend. A weak low may develop along the trough axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun. A third cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, and extend from 31N68W to South Florida by Mon night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv