Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 36W, extending from 06N to 15N, and moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are depicted from 11.5N to 14N between 33.5W to 39W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 63.5W, extending from 10N to 19N, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at the moment in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis along 83W, from 06N to 18N, and moving westward at around 10-15 kt. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11.5N to 16N and west of 90W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16.5W and continues to 09N42W. The ITCZ begins near 09N42W and continues to 07N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present offshore Africa, from 04N to 10.5N between the African coast and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 40W and 43.5W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing over the E Gulf, from 26N to 29N between 83W and 87.5W in associated with low level convergence occurring near a surface trough that extends eastward across central Florida. Similar convection is depicted north of the Florida Keys. The remainder Gulf is under the influence of a 1014 mb high centered near 28N93W, which is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except for SE to S gentle to moderate winds west of 91.5W. Seas across the basin range between 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the central Gulf to promote gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to a weakening cold front located across north- central Florida.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on associated convection. Isolated moderate convection extends from western Cuba southwestward to the entrance to the Yucatan Channel. Strong upper level SW wind shear dominates much of the N half of the basin, occurring the south of an upper trough across NW portions.

Atlantic ridging dominates the region north of the basin, extending W-SW along 20N and into the eastern Bahamas. The pressure gradient between relatively low pressure over south America and the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the increasing pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will strengthen trade winds to strong speeds over the south-central Caribbean this afternoon through Fri evening before diminishing. Trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh Wednesday night through Sat. A tropical wave entering the E Caribbean this morning will enhance showers and isolated thunderstorms across the E and SE Caribbean through Wed morning.

Atlantic Ocean

A dissipating stationary front extends across the SW N Atlantic waters from 31N73.5W to central coastal Florida, supported by a sharp upper trough along the east coast of the U.S. Scattered to numerous showers and tstms are ahead of this boundary, north of 26N between 65W and 78W. A 1024 mb high pressure near 29N47W dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters and provides moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas N of 22N and W of 30W. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and the front over the SW waters supports moderate to fresh S to SW winds W of 61W, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of 22N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft W of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This in combination with a stationary front off NE Florida will force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 63W for the next several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from Wed afternoon through Sat.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv