Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning, A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and on Sat night near Veracruz. Seas are forecast to build to around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough exits the W coast of Africa near 11N16W and extends to 10N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate is noted S of 02N west of 38W.

Gulf Of America

See details above for gale-force winds to occur behind a cold front in the W Gulf on Sat and Sat night.

A weak cold front extends from SE Louisiana eastward to the Florida panhandle. Weak western Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge westward across S Florida and into the E Gulf, where a 1014 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 26N82W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf with seas of 1-4 ft this afternoon. A few weak showers are along the front across the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Mississippi waters. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh southeast winds across the western half of the basin, and light to gentle variable winds over the eastern half through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf, while slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and on Sat night near Veracruz.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between 1015 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic east of the Bahamas and relatively lower pressure over N South America is sustaining fresh trades off NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas are about 5-7 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate easterly trade winds prevail elsewhere across the basin with seas of 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N over the SW Caribbean, supported by a mid to upper-level trough persisting across the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching strong speeds at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong on Fri night through Sat night, then diminishing on Mon. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1015 mb high pressure is centered over the W Atlantic east of the N Bahamas near 26N71W. To the east, a cold front extends through 31N39W to 21N58W, then become a dissipating cold front to north of Hispaniola near 20N72W. Winds are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft in N swell west of 62W. Mostly fresh W to NW winds are north of the cold front north of 26N and as far west as 63W. Seas are about 7 to 10 ft in NW swell with these winds. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in N swell prevail north of 25N and east of the front to 35W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active north of 27N between 33W-40W. Farther east, 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 26N27W, with a stationary front to its east, reaching north to south along about 20W-21W. Moderate and weaker winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in N swell are present elsewhere north of 20N, and while gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are ongoing across the tropical Atlantic south of about 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening cold front in the central Atlantic will dissipate as it moves east. The cold front in the W Atlantic will weaken as it moves across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through Fri night to E of 55W Sat. A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N68W to east-central Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede the front Sat and Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through Mon.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea/Stripling/Rivera