Tropical Waves

The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been repositioned to 27W, from 01S to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04S to 04.5N between 24W and 29W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 58W S of 14N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. The wave is supporting moderate convection offshore Suriname and Guyana.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 11N16W and continues SW to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N29W to 03N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 18W and 23W. Similar convection is depicted from 00N to 04N between 29W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front is moving off the Texas coast this morning. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting mainly the north-central basin. Gusty winds to 30 kt and rough seas are likely near these showers and thunderstorms. A weak pressure gradient pattern is supporting moderate or weaker winds and 1 to 3 ft seas south of 24N and west of 87W. Elsewhere, light and variable winds along with seas 1 to 3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche Tue morning, then stall and dissipate by Wed. Winds are generally moderate or weaker with the front, though showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight along the front. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri.

Caribbean Sea

Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the remainder of forecast waters. Large E swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Tue night into the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of America result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 64W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas south of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will reach the waters off of NE Florida early tomorrow morning, extend along 30N and becoming stationary Wed morning, then lifting north of our waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh or weaker in association with the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue along the front. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the Atlantic from NE Florida on Thu, and reaching from 31N70W to 26N72W Fri morning. S winds ahead of the front north of 28N will be fresh to strong.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv