Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then reaches southwestward to 03N18W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N18W through 01S30W to near the Amazon River Delta. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ from 06S to 02N between 21W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are see at the northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the Gulf through Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are going to follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of next week. The front should stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate through Tue.

Caribbean Sea

The leading edge of a trade-wind surge is moving across the eastern basin, while a pronounced upper-level trough also cuts across the same general area from the Mona Passage through Panama. Enhanced by dynamics and moisture related to the upper- level trough, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present for the eastern basin. Gentle to locally moderate NE to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the southern end of a broad surface trough currently over the eastern tip of Cuba and near Jamaica will drift slowly westward and weaken through Sat. This feature will disrupt the typical weather pattern across the central and western basin with a weaker than usual pressure gradient. This weaker pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through midweek next week. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad surface trough extends southward from near Bermuda across 31N69W to beyond the central Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Patchy showers are present near and up to 150 nm west of the trough, including the Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A large 1023 mb high near 33N52W is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate N to ENE swell, north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan