Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues south-southwestward to 00N33W. The ITCZ is S of the Equator from 00S35W to 02S43W. Numerous scattered moderate convection is depicted from 01N to 07N and east of 16W.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered near the Florida Big Bend. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is leading to mainly moderate SE winds over all but the NE Gulf of Mexico, where gentle winds prevail. A diurnal trough is moving westward off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and fresh NE to E winds are within about 60 nm of shore in association with it. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf and 3 or less in the east.

Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through Fri. A weak cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Thu and stall Thu night into Fri. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the SE Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front.

Caribbean Sea

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin along seas of 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night and diminishing on Sun and Mon. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N51W to near 23N67W. A warm front extends from 31N47W to 26N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the front, N of 24N between 47W and 57W. Fresh NW winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft, highest N of 25N, follow the cold front, westward to 70W. E of the warm front, fresh S winds and rough seas are also present N of 25N and E to 40W. Surrounding these areas of higher winds and seas, moderate winds and seas extend N of 22N between 35W and 75W, with the remainder of the central and eastern basin N of 18N having gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas as high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas dominate.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N21W to 21N40W. Weak high pressure dominates both sides of this boundary, leading to gentle winds and moderate seas. Across waters S of 18N, gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 27N55W to near 23N67W will shift E of 55W tonight. Another cold front will move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening. A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early on Sun and stall into Sun night and Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik