Special Features

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front prevails across the W Caribbean, extending from E coast of Cuba to inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from south of 04N between 13W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the N central Gulf coast maintains a broad ridge across the basin. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail across the basin, with moderate seas. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore flow has cleared the skies.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the the southeastern half of the Gulf today before new high pressure moves to the NW Gulf coast this evening and shifts east- southeastward through Thu, which will freshen winds across the SE Gulf. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coastal waters Thu night. This front is expected to move SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz by Fri night and move SE of the basin Sat afternoon. Strong high pressure behind this front will force strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind the front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning, then develop across the NE Gulf waters to offshore of central Florida Sat afternoon and evening.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.

A stationary front extends from the east coast of Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and inland. The pressure gradient between this front and the ridge to the N is resulting in fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas over the NW Caribbean. A modest pressure gradient also exists in the south-central Caribbean, forcing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas and offshore of NW Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front will persist in the area through this evening before high pressure across the N Gulf of America begins to move E through Fri. This will induce fresh to strong N winds behind the front, and force it slowly eastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua- Panama border Thu evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun evening. Strong to near gale- force N winds are expected behind this front.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 22N69W, then becomes stationary to east coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are evident along this boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are behind the front, with rough seas in NW to N swell east of 74W. Fresh SW winds and rough seas are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 28N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1025 mb high pressure centered near 27N30W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted south of 22N and east of 60W, with moderate seas in mixed E and N swell. In the NE Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 27N between 15W-35W. No significant weather is associated with this feature. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are found north of 21N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba this evening, then will meander across this area through Thu. High pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu evening. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a large area of westerly gale- force winds across the local waters N of 24N Sat evening through Sun evening. The front is expected to reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era