Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 21W and extends from 06N to 17N. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 11N between 21W and 30W..

A tropical wave is near 36/37W from 07N to 17N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 14N between 35W and 44W. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early to middle part of this week while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

A tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 12N to 23N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant convection currently accompanies the wave. A swirl of low clouds is just ahead of the wave axis near 16N51W.

A tropical wave is along 68W and extends from the Mona Passage to north-central Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over parts of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, the eastern Caribbean, and NE and north-central Venezuela.

Looking ahead, another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and medium chance through 7 days.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N45W. The ITCZ extends from 11N45W to 12N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted elsewhere.

Gulf Of America

Showers and thunderstorms continues to dot the Gulf region, mainly near west Florida and over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. In addition, a surface trough extending from near Destin, Florida to 28N91W and to near 27N94W also supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Convection has flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High across Florida into the Gulf region, and supports mostly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. Gentle to moderate SE winds are evident per scatterometer data on the east side of a surface trough located over the central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough that extends from near Destin, Florida to 27N94W is expected to dissipate as it moves inland the northern Gulf coast tonight. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the general wind flow pattern across basin well into the week, generally supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure located just south of Bermuda and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 30 kt offshore Colombia. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are N of 15N associated with the tropical wave located across the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Similar winds speeds are present across the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere, with moderate seas. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are occurring over the NW Caribbean and parts of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The associated ridge will gradually shift southward to near 28N through midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night, except Wed night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later this week, which may act to increase the trades again across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a couple of areas with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. Refer to the tropical wave section above for more details.

A weak trough along the U.S. Southeastern coast in combination with ample deep moisture in place are helping to support a band of showers and thunderstorms offshore northern Florida east to near 74W. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This pattern is promoting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N and west of 60W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are near the tropical wave along 36W/37W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to near 20N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak trough offshore the U.S. Southeastern coast will help maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore northern Florida through tonight. The Atlantic ridge will drop a bit farther southward later this week, which may result in stronger easterly winds. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night.

Of note, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early in the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of the week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr