Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 01S40W and to 01S46W. No significant convection is observed.

Gulf Of America

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh NE winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Weak high pressure supports gentle to moderate breezes across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft off the western Yucatan Peninsula, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf through late Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through Sat. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends from the Bay Islands of Honduras to 14N80W and scattered showers are evident north of this boundary and east of 75W. The pressure gradient between the ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds and moderate to locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, off southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun through the early part of next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N58W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near this boundary east of 75W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the stationary front. A concurrent altimeter pass indicated 6-9 ft seas are occurring with these winds.

For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas are impacting waters north of 20N and east of 27W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh winds and rough seas north of front will diminish overnight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen