Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into the weekend. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft off Colombia Sat night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the southern half of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 77W from 19N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the southern half of the wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N39W. It resumes at 09N43W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted with the boundaries at this time.

Gulf Of America

Scattered moderate convection is ongoing along a surface trough running from the Bay of Campeche to the W Gulf. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N85W. The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N east of 94W, and light to gentle southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N. Light and variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W.

For the forecast, the weather pattern will change little through the weekend, then shift slightly southeastward afterward. Occasional fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. The convection over the western Gulf will persist into tonight.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela later this week and weekend.

The pressure gradient between ridging over the Atlantic and lower pressures over northern South America continues to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across much of the central to SW Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing across the SW Caribbean, enhanced by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring over the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early next week. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This activity will continue near the tropical wave as it moves rapidly across the central and western Caribbean the next couple of days.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak stationary front segment runs along 30/31N between 33W and 43W. No notable convection or changes in marine conditions are occurring. Surface ridging prevails across much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevailing across areas S of 22N and W of 35W. Strong trades are seen along the northern coast of Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage, as well as from 02N to 08N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. An area of fresh to strong winds from the NE is occurring N of 20N and E of 25W between a stronger pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over Africa. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will change little through the period. The weather pattern will generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era