Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia to peak at gale- force Fri night and early Sat morning. Seas under these winds are expected to range between 12 and 15 ft. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 08N between 33W and 39W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from eastern Dominican Republic southward into western Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the northeastern Caribbean, including waters south of the Dominican Republic, Mona Passage, and Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near the Cayman Islands southward into western Panama. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the western Caribbean W of 80W and S of 20N, including the Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N19W to 05N25W to 07N33W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from 05N38W to 04N52W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between 15W and 25W, as well as from 03N to 08N between 39W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front runs from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Big Bend of Florida, and is enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 28N and E of 91W. A surface trough in the SW Gulf also appears to enhance scattered moderate convection S of 23N and W of 94W. Aside from convection, gentle to moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across much of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weakening stationary front will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- central and northeastern Gulf today. Otherwise, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning, and please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the basin.

The pressure gradient between ridging across much of the Atlantic and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades across much of the central Caribbean, as well as seas of 9-12 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough to very rough seas in the central Caribbean through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off Colombia will peak at gale-force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday today, diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends across the waters offshore SE GA/NE FL to near Jacksonville, FL. An upper level shortwave over the region is helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms N of the Bahamas. An upper level low S of Bermuda is also enhancing showers and thunderstorms in the region. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by ridging, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds east of northeastern Florida through this evening. Otherwise, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon and night through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Fri. A north-to- south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region early Fri through late Sat, reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

Posted 1 hour, 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams