Special Features

Significant rainfall event: Moist onshore flow near a weakening cold front will support heavy rainfall through late Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize. In particular, strong moisture convergence along the the frontal boundary where it intersects the hilly terrain over northwest Honduras may create the potential for isolated areas of more than 8 inches of rainfall through late Thu impacting various communities to include Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro Sula. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid week. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 00N35W and to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 04N between 28W and 32W.

Gulf Of America

1035 mb high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, building behind a strong cold front that moved southeast of the basin overnight. Winds diminished below gale force earlier this morning off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf, but strong to near- gale force winds persist over much of the Bay of Campeche. In addition, fresh to strong N to NE winds extend across the eastern Gulf and the south- central Gulf following the front. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are still 10 to 13 ft over the southwest Gulf, with 8 to 10 ft seas over most areas elsewhere south of 27N. Wave heights are subsiding quickly over the northern Gulf however. A few showers may be active over the southwest Gulf south of 22N. Partly to mostly cloudy skies persist elsewhere except where dry offshore flow has cleared the skies over the offshore waters from Florida to Louisiana.

For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE through the day and Wed as high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure develops in the north-central Gulf along the next cold front. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening and move SE of the basin Sat. Another round of strong northerly winds will follow this front, with gale- force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning.

Caribbean Sea

Strong NE winds and rough seas extend across the northwest Caribbean this morning, following a cold front that extends from central Cuba to southern Belize. Seas are 8 to 11 ft north of the front, with seas to 12 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Farther south, fresh to strong NE trade winds are active off the coast of Colombia mainly between Cartagena and Santa Marta, with 7 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Showers are likely along the front, but no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the central Atlantic will support fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the tropical Atlantic waters through early Wed, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night through Thu. Large E swell over the tropical Atlantic will slowly subside through Wed afternoon. The Atlantic cold front currently extending across central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will continue moving eastward today, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to northeastern Honduras this evening through Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh Wed morning, then increase to fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the northern Gulf of America. Moderate N winds and seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri night. A new strong cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A strong cold front reaches from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front along with 8 to 12 ft seas. Fresh to strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are within 300 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1025 mb high pressure centered near 26N33W to north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a cold front extends from northern Morocco to just north of the western Canary Islands to 28N25W. Large NW swell of 12 to 15 ft follow the front east of 40W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere south of the ridge, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE to E swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N56W to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will meander across this area through Thu, when new high pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front through Thu evening. Another strong cold front will enter the western waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the W Atlantic this weekend, inducing gale force winds across the area beginning on Sat night.

Posted 7 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen