Tropical Waves

The tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 10N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave meets the ITCZ. The wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment which inhibits other impacts.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then continues SW to near 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to NE Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

The late-season cold front now extends from the NW Bahamas along the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. An area of showers and thunderstorms is just S of the front affecting the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere along the front. Latest scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NW winds over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area. Seas are 9 to 12 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted elsewhere N of the front, with the exception of the northern Gulf where winds and seas are diminishing.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall and gradually wash out by tomorrow morning over the far SE Gulf. Strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz will diminish by tonight. Elsewhere, fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front into tonight. Expect Mon and Tue to see quiet conditions prevailing across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu. Looking ahead, Fri may be the start of another quiet period over the Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, with gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage, including also the coastal waters. Scattered moderate convection, associated with the equatorial trough, continues to flare up in the SW Caribbean offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. A weakening cold front is approaching the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the Yucatan Channel tomorrow, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras to increase up to fresh to strong speeds Tue through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from near Bermuda across the NW Bahamas into the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data depict moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the front, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high pressure prevails, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure located near 25N63W and 1017 mb high pressure situated SW of the Canary Islands near 27N24W. Its associated ridge, combined with lower pressures over W Africa, is promoting an area of moderate to fresh N winds and moderate to locally rough seas between W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are seen across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N59W to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W Mon morning. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong NE winds north of the front tonight and tomorrow. Conditions across the forecast waters should become quiescent Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward.

Posted 1 hour, 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr