Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 26W, extending from 09N to 18N, and moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted near the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, extending from 09N to 21N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 71.5W southward from 18N into Venezuela, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 80W, from 18N southward to central Panama, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N between 76W and 83W. Scattered convection is also noted from 16N to 18N along the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5W and continues to 10N49.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the coast of Africa from 06N to 13N E of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 13N between 31W and 41W and between 49W and 53W.

Gulf Of America

An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Extends southwestward to northern Florida, and scattered showers and thunderstorms from 27N to 29N and east of 86W. Scattered moderate convection is found across the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the western Bay of Campeche. A high pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 26.5N90W and is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except gentle to moderate NW winds along the northeastern Gulf coastal and immediate offshore waters. Gentle to moderate SE winds are also ongoing in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure remaining over the central Gulf will lead toward generally quiescent conditions for the next several days. The exception is NE fresh winds just northwest of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching weak cold front.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge extends westward along 16N-18N, and is supporting fresh trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the central Caribbean S of 16N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. An mid level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 81W and 84W.

For the forecast, an increasing pressure gradient between the Colombian Low and high pressure north of the Caribbean will boost trades to strong over the S central Caribbean from Tue night through the end of the week. Similarly, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh starting Tuesday night. A tropical wave moving through the E Caribbean will enhance showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow over the SE Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb center of high pressure near 32N39W extends southwestward to near 24N71W. To the N of 23N and west of 67W, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring ahead of a stalling cold front along 31.5N and offshore of the Carolinas. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail ahead of the front, north of 29N and between 61W and 69W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is found from 21N to 25N between 56.5W and 63W in association to an upper level low. Elsewhere N of 22N and W of 40W, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Across the tropical Atlantic S of 22N moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail, with seas of 5-8 ft. A 1025 mb high pressure near the Azores is promoting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from the Canary Islands to 40W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge associated with the Bermuda High will remain farther south than usual - near 25N - through Fri. This in combination with a stationary front offshore of the Carolinas is forcing fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of Hispaniola from Wed through Fri.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv