Special Features

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 27.1N 97.8W at 16/1800 UTC or 50 nm SSW of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph, and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 23W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 45W and 57W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found south of 11N and W of 80W, likely enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough in the region. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the wave axis N of 11N to about 16N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 04.5N46W and then from 05N50W to 06N58W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 08.5N between 36W and 41W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

Away from convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across much of the Gulf W of 88W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 27.0N 98.0W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. One will move to 27.4N 97.2W this evening, 28.2N 95.8W Wed morning, 29.6N 93.9W Wed evening, inland to 31.6N 91.7W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf tonight through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Windward Passage, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and off the coast of Jamaica. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the far SW Caribbean, in waters immediately S of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic westward along 26N, across S Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale- force Wed night and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night, then will diminish through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, extending from 1023 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores, southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward across the Florida Straits. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 23N and W of 30W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are also occurring north of 25N and west of 65W. NE winds at fresh to strong speeds are confirmed by scatterometer data across a region N of 20N and E of 20W, strongest winds occurring near the coast of Morocco. Gentle to moderate trades and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere, particularly within the subtropical ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure located near 26N60W westward across S Florida, and will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 68W are occurring ahead of a surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams