Tropical Waves

The eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on wave diagnostic tools. The wave axis is now near 32W from 01N to 16N. Scattered showers are near the wave from 00N to 10N between 30W and 40W.

The central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on wave diagnostic tools. The wave axis is now near 52W from 02N to 18N. Isolated showers are depicted from 08N to 12.5N between 48W and 56.5W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67.5W south of 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N to 15N along the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues south-southwestward to 06N30W and 06N41W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to 06N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is just offshore the coast of Africa from 02N to 14N and reaches west to near 23N. This convection is in advance of the next tropical wave.

Gulf Of America

A high pressure ridge extends westward to 87W from a subtropical high located in the Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures across Mexico supports moderate to fresh SE to S winds across much of the Gulf, except for gentle southerly winds over the E Gulf. Seas are in the range of 4 to 7 ft over most of the Gulf, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in spots over the NW Gulf and seas 1 to 3 ft over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure extends from the Atlantic westward across Florida to the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally support mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf today. The fresh winds over the western and central Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds early next week. Winds over the eastern Gulf will become light to gentle tonight.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between broad central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America is generally sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and northwestern sections. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the remainder of the Caribbean.

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted in the southwestern Caribbean from 10N to 14N between 76W and 83W. This activity is related to the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that protrudes eastward across Costa Rica and to the northwest part of Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere from 14N to 21N between 74W to 82W.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale- force tonight. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

A rather ill-defined trough extends from 31N28W to 26N36W. No significant convection is present near the trough. High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 28.5N59W. High pressure covers the waters north of about 21N. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas to exist across much of the Atlantic south about 21N as well as between the Bahamas and Cuba. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 21N east of 72W while fresh southwest winds are over the waters east of northern Florida to near 75W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 21N. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the tropical Atlantic along with seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the basin will shift slightly eastward tonight as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. The front will move offshore northeast Florida during the weekend, then stall and weaken. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected north of 30N and W of 72W through tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong south of 22N into early next week.

$$ KRV

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