Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours tonight. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 06N between 14W and 25W, and S of 05N between 28W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, with fresh to strong trades occurring through the Florida Straits confirmed by scatterometer data. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over much of the northern Gulf coast as a front slowly moves across the south- central United States, as well as over parts of western Florida.

For the forecast, a weak cold front just inland over Texas will move into the NW Gulf coastal waters Sun and stall before washing out. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SW winds basin- wide, pusling to between fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the NE Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. Another, but stronger cold front may impact the NW Gulf Wed night, moving across the basin through Thu night with increasing winds and seas behind it.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean, with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern Colombia. Recent scatterometer data confirmed fresh to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras, and also through the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range in the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central parts of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras for the remainder of the weekend, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1027 mb high pressure located just W of Bermuda, and another 1027 mb high pressure situated N of the Madeira Islands near 35N21W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are observed N of 20N and E of 20W. Fresh to strong trades are also noted from 05N to 25N and W of 55W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are 7 to 10 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the tropical Atlantic E of 55W with moderate to rough seas, highest just E of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through mid-week, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold front. That front may move offshore by early Thu, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams