Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure well north of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will lead to gale force winds off northwest Colombia through early this morning and then again on tonight along with rough seas. This gradient will weaken some early this week as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic allowing for the pulsing gale conditions to end Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 18W, south of 11N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 53W, south of 10N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 00N30W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 08N and between 30W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche, western and northern Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are occurring north of Yucatan and off SE Texas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through tonight. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters early Mon morning, and reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh NW winds are expected off Veracruz Mon night into Tue morning. Scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the Gulf Tue night into Wed as the front weakens.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features for information on an ongoing gale warning for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the gale warning, the pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure system over the N Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through late next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours through tonight, these winds are expected to reach gale-force off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 are noted south of 25N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of the basin, supporting fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida late Mon and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, diminishing quickly Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near the front. Building ridge over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W late next week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado