Special Features

Gulf of America Northerly Swell: Residual northerly swell behind a cold front that moved southeast of the Gulf earlier this morning will sustain 12 to 13 ft seas in the southwestern and south- central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel until later this evening. Afterward, seas should gradually subside below 12 ft before midnight tonight.

Western Atlantic Gale Northwest Swell: A strong cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N65W and the central Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Large NW swell behind this front is going to maintain 12 to 16 ft seas north of 26N and east of 29W through Wed morning. As the front weakens and lifts northeastward Wed afternoon, seas should steadily subside.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 03N19W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N19W through 02N30W to north of Belem, Brazil at 00N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted near both features from 00N to 04N between 50W and 15W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swell.

A prominent surface ridge extending southward from the central U.S. Across the western Gulf to near Bay of Campeche. Outside the Significant Swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh N to NNE winds and seas of 5 to 10 ft at the western Gulf. Fresh to strong N to NNE winds and 7 to 11 ft seas elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE through Tue as the high pressure shifts SE overhead. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening. This next front is expected to stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican coastal waters late Fri..

Caribbean Sea

The southeastern end of a cold front extends from near central Cuba across the northwestern basin to beyond southern Belize. Scattered showers are evident up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. Farther east, a surface trough is producing scattered showers near Jamaica, the Windward Passage and Haiti. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are present behind the front in the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE to ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted across the south-central and southeastern basin, including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate N to NE to ESE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward and reach from northwestern Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border by Tue morning, then stall and dissipate from central Dominican Republic to southeastern Nicaragua Wed. Expect strong N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas behind this front through Tue night. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Thu and Fri and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swell.

A strong cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N65W and the central Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Scattered showers are found up to 50 nm north, and up to 100 nm south of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the areas of Significant Swell mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are evident behind the cold front. An area of fresh to strong SW winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft exist north of 25N between 56W and 67W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SW to W to NW winds with 5 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 20N between 52W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther east, a 1022 mb high near 27N46W is supporting gentle winds with 8 to 14 ft seas in large NW swell north of 20N between 35W and 52W. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to Se Winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front is expected to reach from 31N61W to the northwest coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. It will then stall from near 29N55W to the central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift westward and dissipate through Thu. High pressure will move into the Atlantic behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the region Thu and Fri.

Posted 56 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan