Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has been introduced into the 00Z analysis. This wave is along 26W, south of 18N. Scattered moderated convection is depicted from 07N to 12N between 24W and 30W.

A tropical wave is along 37.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 14N and between 30W and 43W.

A tropical wave is near 58.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated convection is depicted from 12N to 14N between 55W and 61.5W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean along 74W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends northeastward across western Hispaniola.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends southwestward to 11N24W and to 10N52W. Beyond convection described above with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14N and east of 18W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by 1017 mb high pressure located near 25N87W. This pattern supports a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow across the basin, except for fresh to locally strong W winds over the NE Gulf and NE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Slight to moderate seas of generally 3 ft or less prevail across the basin. An upper level low center across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions north of Tampa that are shifting westward to the NE Gulf. Another cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted north of 28.5N between 87W and 39W.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the central part of the basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring across the SW Caribbean and into coastal portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow ahead of an approaching tropical wave, is producing isolated showers across the Lesser Antilles, south of 14N.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh to locally near gale-force trades along with rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 1017 mb low pressure near 32N48.5W to 30N48.5W to a 1017 mb low pressure center located near 29.5N60.5W, then continues as a trough to just east of the SE Bahamas near 23.5N70W. Middle level troughing overhead of the stationary front is supporting clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms S of the front and low between 47W and 60W. Moderate SW winds prevail south of the front. Seas area 4 to 6 ft within these winds. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the Azores High centered near 42N29W, that extends southwestward across 30N and then a narrow ridge south of the front to near 74W. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate trade winds are occurring S of 22N E of 40W, and S of 27N W of 40W. However, small areas of fresh winds are noted approaching the Lesser Antilles, while moderate to fresh NE winds prevail from 17N to 24N E of 35W. Seas across these areas are 6 to 8 ft. Otherwise, seas are generally moderate E of 63W, and slight to moderate W of 63W. Saharan Air continues to dominate the Tropical Atlantic N of 13N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken to a trough tonight into Thu. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of about 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.

Posted 1 hour, 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv