Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected to develop this evening offshore of Tampico, Mexico, with gales expanding into the central basin and western Bay of Campeche overnight, in the wake of a cold front moving southeastward over the Gulf. Very rough seas peaking near 13 to 15 ft are expected near these winds. Gales will end for most areas Sun morning, but prevail through the day Sun offshore Veracruz, Mexico. The hazardous seas will prevail into Sun night, with conditions improving Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras: Heavy rainfall is expected over the Gulf of Honduras Sun through the middle of next week as a shear line or pre-frontal trough interacts with low-level moisture in the region. The heaviest precipitation is expected on Tue and Wed, with the most persistent rain leading to totals of 8 to 12 inches over the southwestern Gulf of Honduras, and local amounts over 12 inches will be possible. Widespread amounts of 2 to 6 inches are expected over the rest of the region. Please consult products from local meteorological services for additional information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 03N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17.5W to 02N37.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 07N east of 18W, and from 03N to 05N between 30W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warnings in the southwestern basin.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30.5N87W to northeastern Mexico near 25.5N97W. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead of the front in the central and northeastern basin. Recent scatterometer satellite data and METAR data show fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring in the wake of the front, and buoy data over the northwestern Gulf show 8 to 9 ft seas are accompanying these winds. Farther south, a surface trough is noted in the west-central Gulf through the western Bay of Campeche, and locally fresh NW winds are noted west of this feature offshore of east-central Mexico. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted in the northeastern basin, ahead of the cold front. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail over the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE through the basin this weekend and exit Sun night. Strong to near- gale force N to NE winds are expected behind the front through the weekend, with gales developing late this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico, and spreading SE into the central basin and western Bay of Campeche overnight. Gales will end for most areas Sun morning, but prevail through the day Sun offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Rough seas will accompany the strong winds, with very rough seas where gales occur. The hazardous seas will prevail into Sun night, with conditions improving Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the SE United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.

Caribbean Sea

An increasing pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the Caribbean and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting widespread fresh to strong trade winds over the central and eastern basin, as seen via recent scatterometer satellite data. Altimeter satellite data and buoy data show rough seas, peaking near 9 ft, over the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail over the northwestern basin. Elsewhere, an E swell over the central Atlantic is supporting rough seas of 8 to 9 ft east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central Caribbean this weekend, before becoming confined to the south- central basin next week, as they are disrupted by a cold front entering from the northwest. Offshore Colombia, these trade winds will pulse to near gale each night through early next week. The aforementioned cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall front central Cuba to Honduras Mon night. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms over Honduras and adjacent waters early next week, with fresh to strong NE winds behind the front through Tue night.

Atlantic Ocean

A decaying stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N56.5W to the southern Bahamas, and recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring north and west of this feature as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Rough seas occurring in this region are noted via SOFAR buoy data. Farther west, a surface trough has been analyzed offshore of Florida through the Florida Straits, and locally fresh SW winds are occurring offshore of northern Florida ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S. Elsewhere, a 1037 mb high building near 34.5N33.5W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds along the periphery of the ridge, generally north of 15N. Rough seas cover much of the open Atlantic as per altimeter data and SOFAR data. Farther east, a cold front extends from northwest Africa to 25.5N30W, and fresh to strong NE winds and rough to locally very rough seas are occurring near this front.

For the forecast west of 55W, a building Bermuda-Azores High will enhance the trades up to fresh to locally strong east of 65W for the next few days. A cold front will emerge off the SE United States coast Sun morning accompanied strong winds north of 27N. Winds with the front will diminish on Mon. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the SE United States on Tue and Wed will boost NE winds to fresh to strong in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams