Special Feature

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat. Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W, S of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 52W, S of 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are active from 05N to 06N between 51W and 53W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, S of 16N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is active over the Caribbean, but scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over central Venezuela near 08N65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring at the present time with this wave over the Caribbean, but scattered convection is noted over Venezuela near 11N69W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 16N16W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W and 42W.

Gulf Of America

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. These winds are between the western extension of the Atlantic ridge over the eastern Gulf, and a trough reaching from the south-central Gulf, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Central America. Seas are estimated to be 5-6 ft in this area. Associated scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of Campeche. The pattern is also supporting moderate SE winds elsewhere across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle southerly breezes over the eastern Gulf with 1-3 ft breezes.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern Gulf through Tue. Farther south, broad trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the southern Gulf will shift northwestward through the weekend, and move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

Caribbean Sea

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong SE winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near- gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds are between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely across the northwest Caribbean, reaching eastward to the Windward Passage. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Moderate E winds persist elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place north of region through early next week to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean, as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A few showers and thunderstorms remain active near 28N58W, on the eastern end of a trough extending to 30N50W. A broad ridge extends from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N50W, then across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and west of 35W, and mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift NE and out of the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 23N and gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near the Greater Antilles.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen