Special Features

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell propagating across the western waters is supporting very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft over the waters N of a line from 31N71W to 25N63W to 31N51W. These very rough seas will propagate eastward through Wed, reaching the waters near 45W before subsiding below 12 ft.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N-NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters is supporting very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft within 31N37W to 17N44W and to 31N17W. This swell will continue to spread eastward over the remainder of the eastern Atlantic waters N of 20N through midweek. Very rough seas will linger over these far eastern waters through the end of the week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 00N33W and to 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is observed south of 04N and between 30W and 44W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure system near western Florida and lower pressures over Mexico and Texas support moderate to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted within 90 nm of the western coast of Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, seas will continue to subside across the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, in the wake of the recent cold front now across the Caribbean. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf tonight and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. This next front is expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Mexican coastal waters Sat, then dissipate by Sun as high pressure returns.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends from Haiti to Costa Rica and a few showers are evident on satellite imagery near this boundary. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge near Florida and lower pressures associated with the frontal boundary sustain fresh to near gale-force NE within 250 nm behind the front. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The strongest winds are occurring between Haiti and Jamaica. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate seas are found in the south- central and SE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, this front will gradually dissipate through Wed. The strong winds will gradually veer NE and diminish tonight through Wed as the front weakens. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Wed through Sat and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed northerly swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic throughout the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swell in the western Atlantic, and another Significant Swell in the central and eastern Atlantic.

A weakening cold front extends from 31N57W to Hispaniola. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Fresh to locally strong S-SW winds and rough to very rough seas are occurring ahead of the front to 50W and north of 28N. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas are present south of 25N and west of the front. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1024 mb high pressure system near western Florida, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge centered north of our waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa forces moderate to locally strong and rough to very rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front is expected to move slowly southeastward and continue to weaken, stalling from near 29N55W to the NE Dominican Republic Wed, before drifting W and dissipating Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic behind the front tonight through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the region Thu through Sat. A weak front will move off the SE U.S. Coast late in the weekend and remain just N of the area. Meanwhile, seas will gradually subside through Thu, lingering to around 8 ft over the SE waters through the end of the period.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado