Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12.5W, then continues SW to 02N15.5W. The ITCZ extends from 02N15.5W to 02S32W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06S to 05N between 12W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 37W and 44W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the diurnal trough over the Bay of Campeche supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas 4 to 6 ft over the SW Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail along seas 2 to 5 ft, except for the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the west- central Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night.

Caribbean Sea

An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic southward to north of the Mona Passage. A ridge north of the Bahamas is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas 4 to 5 ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 4 to 6 ft are also occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week.

Atlantic Ocean

As previously mentioned, an upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from 29N64W southward to north of the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 19N to 25N between 60W and 67W. Farther northeast, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to 29.5N47W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front. A Bermuda- Azores High located north of the forecast waters is interacting with the surface trough to cause moderate to fresh NE winds from Bermuda, across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 5 to 9 ft east of the Bahamas. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure in the vicinity over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE to E trades and moderate to rough seas over the remainder of the forecast waters. Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north of 29N and east of 17W with seas of 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough between Bermuda and Puerto Rico will drift west toward Hispaniola today, then will remain nearly stationary through Fri while gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through tonight, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will follow the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv