Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 10N14W and continues SW to 03N27W. The ITCZ extends from 03N27W to 00N37W to 01S49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 03N between 05W and 15W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. Under the influence of this ridge, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas prevail, except in the Straits of Florida where strong E winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are ongoing.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to retreat eastward Sat evening as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Bay of Campeche by Sun, then stall as low pressure tracks eastward along it into the middle of next week. Strong northeast winds are expected across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the Gulf, with the exception of NE part, will diminish on Sat, but continue at fresh speeds in the Straits of Florida through late Sat night.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh trades over the central basin, except for strong NE winds offshore Colombia. Seas are moderate except rough within the strong speed winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the NW Caribbean while moderate trades are over the E basin. Seas over both the NW and E Caribbean are moderate to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia and through the Windward Passage through Sat. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward this weekend allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue and drift westward toward the Bahamas. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

The pressure gradient between high pressure located well north of the area and relatively lower pressure in the subtropics and tropics is allowing for generally strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of 26N as indicated by scatterometer data. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low pressure situated near 25N26W to 30N23W. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong NE to E winds and rough seas over much of the waters S of 26N will gradually diminish through the weekend as the high weakens while shifting eastward. An inverted surface trough is forecast to develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night allowing for winds to weaken. The trough will track in a general northwestward direction into mid-week. A cold front is expected to emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Mon, then slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning and stall into mid-week. Low pressure may then develop along the trough at about mid-week as it merges with the frontal boundary and while high pressure builds southward N of the frontal boundary. The resulting tight pressure gradient will bring strong to near gale-force northeast winds along with seas building to a rough state behind this front starting early next week. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast, especially beyond Mon night.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos