Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW to 01S31W. The ITCZ continues from 01S31W to 01S41W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south 0f 04N between Africa and Brazil.

Gulf Of America

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted on satellite imagery in the northeast Gulf north of 26N and east of 87W associated with an analyzed outflow boundary. A weak 1004 mb low pressure area is analyzed along a surface trough over the waters offshore Veracruz with little impacts other than localized wind shifts. Otherwise, weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf with a 1013 high pressure center near 28N84W. Light to gentle SE-S winds and 1-2 ft seas are east of 89W, with gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas west of 89W.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night. Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in a cluster of strong thunderstorms currently affecting the waters between the western Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras, locally fresh there per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas of 1-3 ft are between 70W and 85W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher near Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area roughly along 23W between Cuba and the Bahamas. This weather pattern will continue to support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected mainly at night. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as high pressure builds again N of the area.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from 24N65W westward to the Straits of Florida. This features are supporting nearby scattered to isolated moderate convection. Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of convection are possible. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of broad ridging. A cold front is just north of 31N to the southeast of Bermuda with associated fresh to strong SW-W winds across our waters north of 29N between 52W and 62W. Large associated seas are well ahead of the front, with 7-10 ft likely north of 27N between roughly 43W and 63W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are offshore northern Morocco north of 29N, as well as from 20N to 24N due to locally tight pressure gradients. Elevated seas of 6-8 ft are in these areas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters, locally fresh south of 20N. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 80W, and mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swells across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough in the SW N Atlantic will remain in place through Sun and gradually dissipate by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters through Sun. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front N of 27N.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky