Tropical Waves

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W, south of 16N and moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the northwestern Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast of Senegal near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to near 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 08N. The strongest convection is evident off Liberia.

Gulf Of America

Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found off northern Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few showers are noted near the western coast of Florida and off Tamaulipas. Generally dry conditions dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity.

Caribbean Sea

An extensive subtropical ridge situated near Bermuda dominate the Caribbean waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft and diurnal heating are supporting showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and nearby waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central portion of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft associated with an upper low near 31N77W and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between 70W and 77W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge near Bermuda. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted south of 27N and west of 55W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 25N57W and a few showers are noted ahead of the front. Rough seas are occurring behind the front, east of 43W. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure over France. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 14N to 22N and east of 22W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 23N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from off the central Bahamas southward to the Windward Passage through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado