Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 02N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 23W and 30W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 01N to 16N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen along 40W in the immediate vicinity of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 19N. Decaying showers and thunderstorms are seen between the wave axis and the Lesser Antilles.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81.5W south of 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This wave is interacting with an upper- level low, with scattered moderate convection occurring S of 20N between 80W and 85W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 06N25W to 08N37W to 05N44W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N51W. Convection is described in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

High pressure ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf, reinforced by a 1016 mb high in the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh SE winds west of 87W, with 3-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas 1 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed offshore the Texas coast.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through Thu night as a new high center becomes situated over the central Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection across the basin.

The subtropical ridge extends north of the area over the western Atlantic. The pattern between this ridge and tropical waves over the eastern and western Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, where seas are 7-10 ft. Recent scatterometer data indicated winds near gale-force in the south-central Caribbean closer to the Colombian coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere, with 5-7 ft seas, except for gentle SE winds 3-5 ft over the far northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of next week. A tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will move through the eastern through late Mon, and across the rest of the basin through late Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the wave. Another tropical wave located over the western Caribbean is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 80W, and quickly moving westward. This wave will move inland Central America late tonight.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical ridge extends across the entire Atlantic north of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N54W. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across much of the Atlantic S of 20N. Gentle breezes prevail north of 20N, with 2-5 ft seas in a broad mix of swell. Upper jet dynamics are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along 30N between 65W and the SE US Coast. Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is being supported mainly by upper jet dynamics east and NE of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge along 26N will shift slightly south on Sun, and change little through Thu night as surface troughing lingers near and offshore Florida. Moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse to strong south of 22N through Tue, then be at mostly fresh speeds through the rest of the forecast period.

Posted 23 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams