Special Feature

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 13N and east of 23W and remains disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low pres near 12N21W to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N34W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon trough between 23W-29W, and along the ITCZ between 46W-52W.

Gulf Of America

A 1022 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf near 29N88W. The high supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds across much of the western and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these waters. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few showers are present north of Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while drier conditions are noted in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly in the Gulf of Honduras. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough along 76W and north of 24W is producing a scattered showers west of 72W and north of 22N. The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of broad high pressure. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of the SE Bahamas and north of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 56 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era