Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a well established high pressure ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across much of the central and southeastern Caribbean sea. After diminishing to 25 to 30 kt during late morning to early afternoon hours. Winds may remain just below gale force Thursday night but gales are expected to resume offshore NW Colombia on Friday night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and tried 06N http://www.nhc.noaa.gove/text/marine/offshores.php. For more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Sirrea Leone coastal border, then extends southwestward to 06N17W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 06N17W across 00N60W to just north Sau Luis, Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 18W and 33W.

Gulf Of America

Two surface troughs are causing widely scattered moderate convection just south of New Orleans and at the east-central Gulf. Otherwise, a broad surface extends southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist through early next week. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds Gulf- wide. Seas will be slight to moderate through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered moderate convection at the northwestern basin, including waters near the Cayman Islands. Fresh to strong ENE to E trades with 7 to 10 ft seas dominate the central basin and parts of the southwestern basin, while moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail north of the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba through early Sat evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night through Sun night. Rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical north Atlantic will continue through Tue.

Atlantic Ocean

Convergent trades are coupling with divergent flow aloft to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from the coast of Brazil to 02N between 44W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1038 mb Azores High along with a 1028 mb Bermuda High are dominating much of the Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen north of 28N between 35W and the Georgia/northeast Florida coast. For the remainder of the Atlantic from 00N to 28N and west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 7 to 10 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Mon night, becoming strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward Passage. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southern Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region.

Posted 15 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan