Special Feature

Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.6N 93.2W at 23/1500 UTC or 30 nm S of Lake Charles Louisiana, moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection prevails N of 25N and W of 93W. Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through Thursday night along Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Sreas of 8 to 14 kt are expected N of 27N betwen 88W and 93W. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts during the next several hours, and then move inland over Texas this evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 0N to 22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending along 57W from 08N to 23N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No deep convection is noted with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W to 11N34W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 11N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 35W.

Gulf Of America

Refer to the section above for details on T.S. Bertha.

Elsewhere outside of Bertha, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail for the next few days as high pressure becomes established over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, Bertha will move inland to 29.7N 95.2W this evening, weaken to a remnant low and dissipate Fri evening. In the wake of Bertha, a high pressure center will become established over the NE Gulf through Fri, then shift to the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean, although reduced due to a surface trough that is located east of the Bahamas and extends into the Windward Passage, continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and over the eastern Caribbean along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker with slight seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night beginning on Sat. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves in the basin.

A surface trough extends from near 29N72W to the southeastern Bahamas and to the Windward Passage. A second surface trough is to the east extends from 28N61W to 24N62W. Both of these features are accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly W of 57W. The pressure gradient between the troughs and high pressure to the north is sustaining fresh trades over the waters south of about 23N and east of 75W. To the E, a low pressure of 1022 mb is near 32N36W, with a trough to 29N37W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 to 60 nm of the trough.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands and downwind to about 29N. Seas with these winds are peaking to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the westward trough will continue westward to central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. A cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night, preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era