Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High in the central Atlantic and the Colombian Low will support strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean for the remainder of tonight. An OSCAT scatterometer pass at 0528 UTC reported ENE winds of around 35 kt. At 0500 UTC, the Jason-3 altimeter observed a large swath of seas 10-12 ft west of the peak wind region. Winds will drop below gale this morning, but fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist through at least the upcoming week.

Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Tropical Waves

A tropical in the far eastern Atlantic is along 20W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N-10N between 18W-25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N-09N between 43W-53W.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles along 60W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N-18N between 56W-64W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N46W and then from 06N49W and to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N-18N between 56W-64W.

Gulf Of America

Winds in the NW Gulf are moderate to fresh SE with seas 3-5 ft. Winds in the SW Gulf are also moderate to fresh E with seas 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, winds over the E Gulf are gentle with seas 1-3 ft, Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Gulf south of 20N west of 95W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the NW Gulf through Mon. Elsewhere, ridging will support only gentle to moderate winds for the next several days.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding the on-going gale conditions for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the expected gale conditions, fresh to strong E winds are occurring over the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong NE winds are observed through the Windward Passage, and fresh winds to the lee of central Cuba are noted. Seas over the Gulf of Honduras are 5-8 ft, over the Windward Passage are 4-7 ft, and in the lee of Cuba are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere over the Caribbean, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds to gale-force offshore of Colombia will be diminishing shortly. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

Ridging along 33N combined with lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are contributing toward moderate to fresh trades with seas 4-7 ft. Some NE strong winds are also occurring between the Canary Islands and just offshore of S Western Sahara. A prominent tropical upper-tropospheric trough extends from 30N50W to 22N85W with scattered moderate convection occurring along the trough axis from 25N-28N between 57W-63W.

For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form in its wake. Gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter, while it moves slowly westward over our NW waters north of 28N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea