Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 14N and between 53W and 65W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N and between 22W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

The storm activity over the SE Gulf has diminished in the past couple of hours, however, some showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the northern and NW Gulf. The subtropical ridge weakly extends into the Gulf waters supporting moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, an upper level low pressure currently over the NW Bahamas will progress westward over the next several days, supporting scattered moderate to strong convection. Additionally, a frontal boundary will approach the northern Gulf coast enhancing the storm activity across the area this weekend and into early next week. Mariners should expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and higher seas near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate into next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE winds. However, fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia.

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, especially west of 82W. Similar convection is noted in the SW Caribbean. Meanwhile, a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is bringing some showers to the SE Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low is supporting strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage, reaching gale force off Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands and lower environmental pressures over northern South America combine to support strong to near gale-force easterly trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. This pattern will persist into next week. Winds will pulse to gale- force off Colombia this morning and tonight. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. Finally, moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into next week.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level low pressure and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NW Bahamas and nearby waters. Farther east, divergence aloft and a frontal boundary just north of our area support scattered showers north of 26N and between 53W and 61W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough seas off Haiti and eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas. The strongest winds and seas are at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-9 ft are noted south of 23N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low pressure currently over the NW Bahamas will move westward through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with locally strong winds, frequent lightning and higher seas. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong and locally rough seas winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado