Special Feature

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of 16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N to 13N and between 20W and 23W and remains disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low pres near 11N22W to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N to 13N and between 20W and 23W

Gulf Of America

A 1021 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf near 28N88W. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the southwest and south-central Gulf, where seas are 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate breeze are noted elsewhere over the western Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are noted over the north- central and northeast Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Tampa Bay, Florida, and Tampico, Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras. Trade wind convergence is supporting showers and thunderstorms off western Panama. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad ridge extends across the Atlantic basin north of 15N, anchored by 1025 mb centered near 30N40W. In addition to the tropical waves south of the ridge, a weak surface trough extends from the Leeward Islands to 21N55W. Another weak trough reaches from the northern Bahamas to 31N75W, supporting showers and thunderstorms near 30N75W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3-5 ft seas is noted along the ridge axis north of 15N and west of 35W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen