Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N between 32W and 37W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, from Puerto Rico southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 62W and 70W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, southward from the Gulf of Honduras into Central America, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Cayman Islands through the Gulf of Honduras and into Central America.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 15N33W and then to 09N45W. The ITCZ has formed from 09N46W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 19W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf coast. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the basin N of 26N. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west along roughly 23N, from the Florida Straits westward. This pattern is supporting moderate SW winds in the NE basin north of 25N where seas are 3-5 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas this week. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Thunderstorms will prevail into mid-week in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid- and upper-level trough sets up over the region.

Caribbean Sea

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin.

The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin this week. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep-layer trough extending down the eastern United States toward western Cuba is leading aiding in broad ascent, combining with abundant tropical moisture to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of Cuba and W of 70W, including waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 29N and west of 76W. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds is in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas prevail across much of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue into tonight before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of the U.S. Will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik