Special Features

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N54W southwestward through Puerto Rico and into the south-central Caribbean. Widespread very rough seas in N to NW swell cover the northwest tropical Atlantic in the wake of the front, and locally very rough seas in mixed swell are noted to the east of the front north of 28N. Peak seas of 18 to 24 ft are expected north of 26N and east of 71W through late tonight. Seas in excess of 12 ft will slowly subside from west to east tonight through Wed morning, with seas falling below 8 ft by Thu morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N36W to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 06N east of 24W, and from 02N to 04N between 33W and 37W.

Gulf Of America

A 1030 mb high is centered over the northwest Gulf near 28N92.5W, and ridging extends over the basin. Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to fresh S to SE winds are occurring around the periphery of the high in the southwest Gulf, with locally strong winds noted in the south-central Bay of Campeche. Seas in this region range from 4 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NW to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are occurring in the eastern Gulf east of 88W, and locally rough seas near 8 ft are found in the Yucatan Channel. Gentle winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure located over the NW Gulf will move toward the NE Gulf tonight allowing a fresh to strong southerly return flow to develop over the western Gulf. These winds will persist through late Tue. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front.

Caribbean Sea

A stalled front extends from Puerto Rico through the south- central Caribbean, and recent scatterometer satellite data show widespread fresh to strong N winds are occurring in the wake of the front over the western and central basin, including through the passages. Altimeter satellite data show widespread rough seas over 8 ft are occurring in this region, with very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft noted offshore of northwestern Colombia and Panama. In the eastern Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh E to SE and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. To the east of the Lesser Antilles, rough seas in E swell are slowly subsiding.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas following the front are forecast to dissipate by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as a high pressure settles N of area. On Thu, another cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean bringing fresh to strong N winds and building seas.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event occurring over portions of the northwest tropical Atlantic.

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N54W southwestward through Puerto Rico, and recent scatterometer satellite data show strong to near-gale S to SW winds are occurring east of the front, north of 25N. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds are occurring in the wake of the front, north of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, a 1026 mb high centered near 30.5N33.5W extends ridging through much of the open Atlantic, supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds along the periphery of the high, generally south of 22.5N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in E swell prevail in this region. Mainly gentle winds are occurring near the center of the high pressure. Farther east, a cold front is approaching northwest Africa, and moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds are occurring north of 25N. Rough seas in NW swell accompany these winds, with seas in excess of 12 ft noted north of 30N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the aforementioned front in the central Atlantic will continue to move slowly eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front. Mariners are urged to remain cautious through today and stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams