Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W, south of 13N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the northern half of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern half of the wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W then curves southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 00N38W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 07N and E of 27W.

Gulf Of America

Continental high pressure of 1017 mb is centered S of Louisiana and dominates the basin. Winds are mainly light to gentle and anticyclonic, but moderate S winds are present in the NW Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE basin and 2 to 4 ft in the SW. Dry air is in place and no convection is occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient will tighten and SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh over the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A weakening stationary front is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from western Cuba to near Cozumel. The only remaining convection in the basin is within 90 nm of the coast of Panama, where the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in thunderstorm development. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered E of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is leading to strong E winds in the central and southern Caribbean, highest offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas are also present where the strong winds are ongoing. For the remainder of the basin, aside from the NW, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. In the NW basin, mainly gentle E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Large W swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening stationary front extends from W of Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N, E of the front to 62W. Winds in this zone of convection are fresh to strong out of the SW, and seas are rough. Behind this front, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N75W to 28N81W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted W of the front. Elsewhere N of 20N, mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas dominate. To the S of 20N, fresh trades and rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate into the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds NE of the boundary N of 28N will lift N of the region later today, allowing rough seas to diminish. Thereafter, mainly tranquil marine conditions with moderate to strong easterly winds will prevail through early next week.

Posted 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era