Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure is noted near 29N66W, with a warm front extending NE from it to beyond 31N64W. To the east of the low and S of the warm front, gale force SW winds are occurring. The low will track NE and out of the region tonight, and gales will end. Seas of 10 to 12 ft will also diminish some as the winds decrease.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is SW of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W from 12N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this afternoon.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 16N southward to over Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Relatively dry air over the basin is precluding convection near this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 14W southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is W of this wave, within about 120 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal 14N17W, then curves southwestward to 07N25W. An ITCZ continues west from 07N25W to 05N40W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N and west of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is present up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough that extends from 25N88W to just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula is inducing scattered moderate convection in the central Gulf near the northern vertex of the trough. To the E of the trough, fresh E winds are noted just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, where locally moderate seas are present. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with slight seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the east and central Gulf through the early part of the week. Expect fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas across the NE Gulf Wed and Wed night as a frontal boundary reaches the area.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic to near Hispaniola and Cuba. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection in the Gulf of Honduras, and as well as isolated thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Strong E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted in the south-central basin, with fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for waters S of Bermuda.

Extending from the low pressure S of Bermuda that is inducing the gales, a cold front continues southward to 26N73W to just off the NE Florida coast. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and within 150 nm S of the front. Aside from the hazardous conditions described in the gale conditions and the locally hazardous conditions associated with convection, broader winds in the western basin near the boundary area moderate or weaker with mainly moderate seas.

Elsewhere, an elongated ridge associated with a 1029 mb high centered near 30N36W dominates much of the central and eastern basin, leading to widespread moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will shift southeastward, reaching from 31N58W to 25N70W by early Mon morning when fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas will continue to affect the NE waters. Meanwhile, another low pressure will reach the NW waters on Mon, and dissipate as it moves eastward toward Bermuda late on Tue. Looking ahead, a third low pressure area will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed and Thu.

Posted 23 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik