Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Scatterometer data from 1014 UTC today showed strong to near gale force winds occurring off the coast of Morocco. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas 10 ft and higher. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 18W south of 14N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 10N between 15W and 21W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 07.5N between 37W and 46W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W-53W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 48W and 57W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across NE South America.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 04N39W where it is broken by a tropical wave, then resumes from 02N43W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5N50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A weakening stationary front and frontal remnant trough extend through the Florida Straits to offshore of SW Louisiana near 27N93W. A tight pressure gradient north of the front is forcing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft to the N of 27N across much of the NE and north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are present across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of low-level tropical moisture are resulting in numerous moderate and isolated strong convection over the Gulf waters from 23N to 27N and E of 91W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas persist north of a weakening stationary front over the SE waters. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening over the south- central and southeast Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri as a ridge builds from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into early next week, except for occasionally fresh to strong pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores southwestward to near 25N70W. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, along the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough and extends inland across Nicaragua.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge NE of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exceptions will be fresh to strong pulses off Venezuela tonight, and in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds and building are possible over the northwest and north-central Caribbean late Sat through early next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic.

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic through 31N66W to the central Bahamas then become stationary westward through the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present along and just ahead of the front, and are most numerous over the central and northern Bahamas to 80W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas in NE swell to 8 ft along 31N are found behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are evident N of 27N and W of 60W to the front. Across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging centered around a 1030 mb high located SW of the Azores, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds S of 22N and moderate to locally rough seas. Saharan air dominates the deep tropics S of 24N and E of 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary reaches from 31N66W to the central Bahamas then through the Florida Straits. The front will dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds from the SE U.S. Into the western Atlantic. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling