Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 05N-20N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 25W-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 07N-18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 49W-54W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 17N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the wave today.

A new tropical wave has formed in the W Caribbean at 84W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-17N west of 76W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W southwest to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 09N49W, where it breaks for a tropical wave. The ITCZ resumes at 09N53W then to 08N60W along coastal Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 25W-38W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 49W-54W.

Gulf Of America

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the N Gulf near 29N88W. Winds across the Gulf are generally light to moderate except for isolated strong E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2-4 ft. Isolated moderate convection is occurring over the Straits of Florida this afternoon.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the NE Gulf will shift to the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin into the early part of next week, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A moderate pressure gradient between low pressure over northern South America and high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-17N west of 76W associated with a tropical wave. Additionally, an upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection north of 19N west of 85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and possibly Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

The Bermuda-Azores High well north of the area along with lower pressure over the ITCZ and the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to isolated fresh trades west of 30W with seas of 4-7 ft. A larger pressure gradient farther east is forcing fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas 7-9 ft north of 20N east of 30W. An upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection north of 24N between 61W-78W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough off the east coast of Florida will drift west into the peninsula today. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the trough across the Bahamas. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. A cold front may approach the waters east of northern Florida late this weekend and stall, preceded by fresh southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W through mid week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea