Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 24W and extends from 06N to 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis, from 07.5N to 12.5N between 24W and 30W. Low pressure has formed in the lower levels ahead of this wave, where the convection is occurring. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and merge with the next tropical wave to move off of Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek. A tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

A tropical wave is near 41W-42W from 07N to 17N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07.5N to 14.5N between 36W and 49W. Some gradual development of this wave is possible during the early to middle part of this week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

A tropical wave is along 52W from 13N to 24N, moving west at 15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant convection currently accompanies the wave. A swirl of low clouds is just ahead of the wave axis near 15N53W.

A tropical wave is along 71W and extends from the western Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave, from 14N to 18.5N between 63W and 70W, including the Mona Passage and coastal portions of the Dominican Republic. A cluster of moderate convection is also noted across north-central Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W to 10.5N45W. The ITCZ extends from 11N46W to 11.5N62W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11.5N between 36W and the coast of Africa.

Gulf Of America

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf waters, mainly near southwest Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Convection has also flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly shifting westward into the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High west-southwestward across northern Florida and across the northern Gulf along 29N. This pattern is supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight of 3 ft or less over most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring across the nearshore waters along the N and W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, W of a surface trough over the Peninsula. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf will dominate the general wind flow pattern across basin well into the upcoming week, generally supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located just southwest of Bermuda and a 1007 mb Colombian low continues to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean between 66W and 80W, with the strongest winds around 30 kt offshore Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7 to 10 ft with these winds. Winds have increased to strong near the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, near the Barahona Peninsula, as a tropical wave is morning through the area. Scattered moderate convection trails the wave, as described above. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are E of 66W across the eastern Caribbean behind the tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. Fresh to strong NE winds are also present across the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere across NW portions, with moderate seas. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring over south coastal portions of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south- central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The associated Atlantic ridge will gradually shift southward to near 28N through midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later this week, which may act to increase the trades again across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas with the potential of tropical cyclone formation during the coming week. Refer to the tropical wave section above for more details.

A weak trough offshore of the U.S. Southeastern coast in combination with ample deep moisture in place is helping to support a showers and a few thunderstorms well offshore of northern Florida, N of 29N between between 72W and 77W. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, centered on a 1023 mb Bermuda High, and a 1024 mb high near 28N38W. A weakening stationary front extends into the area along 31N48W and disrupts the ridge there between 45W and 55W. This ridge is promoting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and west of 30W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are near the tropical wave along 41W-42W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 9 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to near 19N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will shift gradually southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The ridge will sink a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds.

Of note, weak low pressure across the eastern Atlantic is forecast to move slowly westward, and merge with a tropical wave exiting Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek. A tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical development for this system within the next 7 days.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling