Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave was analyzed at 1200 UTC along 18W, from 06N to 17N. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 36/37W from 07N to 17N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 33W-41W.

A tropical wave is along 47W from 12N to 23N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant convection currently accompanies the wave.

A tropical wave is along 66W and S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the eastern Caribbean between 13N and the coast of Puerto Rico.

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of the week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16N and continues southwestward to 11N45W. The ITCZ extends from 11N45W to 12N62W. In addition to the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 27W, as well as from 08N to 12N between 41W and 55W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough over the northern Gulf supports scattered moderate convection along the northern Gulf coast from SE LA to the western FL Panhandle. More scattered moderate convection is active over the Gulf W of 91W near the south end of this trough, also enhanced by another surface trough in the SW Gulf and a divergent pattern aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the FL Straits. A 1023 mb Bermuda High extends a weak ridge inland across the northern Gulf states. This weak pressure pattern across the Gulf is supporting mostly light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring across the western coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a thermal trough there.

For the forecast, a surface trough extends from near Panama City, Florida to 29N89W and to near 28N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough. The trough will move inland the northern Gulf coast this evening. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High westward across the northern Gulf, and will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located just west of Bermuda and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to support fresh to near gale force trades over the south-central to SW Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across much of this area. Fresh to strong trade accompany a tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean N of 15N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are over the remainder of the E Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 5 ft with these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional waters including the Yucatan Channel, and are supported by upper level troughing over the W Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The associated ridge will gradually shift southward to near 28N through midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later next week, which may act to increase the trades again across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 25N across the basin, broken only by a pair of troughs N of 26N between 48W and 59W. Saharan air and suspended dust is evident south and east of these troughs to as far sout has the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N and west of 55W into the E Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. North of 22N and east of 55W gentle to moderate trades prevail to the Cabo Verde Islands, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5-8 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to 20N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak trough along the U.S. Southeastern coast in combination with ample deep moisture in place will help maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore northern Florida east to near 74W. Otherwise, the ridge associated to high pressure of 1023 mb will shift southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge will drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds. Of note, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early in the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams