Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic is analyzed along 38W, south of 10N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present near the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 76W, south of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. The southern portion of the wave is enhancing the storm activity over Colombia.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 01N37W and then from 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N and east of 35W.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda extends into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the eastern Gulf and off the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough.

Caribbean Sea

An extensive ridge located north of the islands continues to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting portions of Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby waters. In the remainder of the basin, pockets of low-level moisture generate light, fast-moving showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central portion of the Caribbean into early next week. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft results in a few showers between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda forces moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that winds are pulsing to strong force off northern Hispaniola..

A dissipating stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W and continues southwestward to 24N45W to 24N58W. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by the eastern extension of the 1026 mb high pressure east of Bermuda. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh to locally strong northerly winds from 12N to 24N and east of 27W. Seas are 5-8 ft in these waters. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted south of 23N and west of 27W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low located ENE of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly W of 70W. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain reducing visibility. The low is forecast to lift N of the area by early on Fri evening. East winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado