Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1034 mb high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weaken and shift eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force tonight, Tue night and Wed night. Rough to locally very rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal trough in the NW Caribbean and a frontal boundary currently across central Cuba. The front will stall later today and transition to a shear line Tue before dissipating Wed. This will result in the continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01S to 08N between 06W and 31W.

Gulf Of America

A 1027 mb high pressure is building across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front passage. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the front, which is moving across the central Bahamas and central Cuba, supports moderate to fresh N winds east of 90W and in the Bay of Campeche. Rough seas to 10 ft are ongoing in the SW Gulf and portions of the SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N winds across the E and SW Gulf and rough seas associated with the passage of a cold front will continue to diminish today. However, high pressure building over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale warning offshore Colombia.

A cold front extends from central Cuba and then stalls just east of the Cayman Islands before continuing to the Gulf of Honduras. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the NW Caribbean W of 80W. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, which is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the E basin and fresh to near gale-force trades over the central Caribbean where rough seas to 10 ft are being reported by a ship. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered showers are ongoing over southern Cuba adjacent waters and the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, gale force winds are forecast at night offshore Colombia today through Wed. The cold front is forecast to stall from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by this evening, where it will continue to weaken before transitioning to a shear line by Tue evening and dissipating by Wed evening. Ongoing fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are forecast to prevail west of the frontal boundary through Wed. Additionally, periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with the frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur in northern Honduras early Tue through early Wed, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be possible.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front is moving across the central Bahamas, extending from 31N71W to central Cuba. Scattered showers are behind the front, affecting mainly the northern Bahamas. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores High and long-period E swell, which is supporting a very broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from roughly from 16N to 27N E of 65W, all the way to the coast of W Africa. Seas are rough to very rough to 13 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are across the tropical waters along with rough seas to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong Atlantic high pressure and E long-period swell will support strong trade winds E of 65W through Thu. The cold front will continue to bring fresh winds through the region through this evening. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba this evening, and stall past Bermuda to central Cuba by Tue evening before dissipating. High pressure building over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits tonight into the middle of the week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos