Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward through 07N20W to 03N24W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N24W through 00N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough S of 07N between 10W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 22W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

The southern end of a recent cold front has moved into western Cuba, with the remnants extending westward across the entrance to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered light to moderate showers extends across the Florida Straits westward to 87W. Two modest surface troughs are triggering additional showers over the central and southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE return flow across the NW Gulf is producing areas of broken to overcast low and mid clouds across the SE Texas and Louisiana coastal waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the western third of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas will gradually diminish through Wed morning across the Florida Straits and the SE Gulf, as the cold front dissipates across Cuba and the NW Caribbean, and high pressure builds across the northern basin. As the high settles over the region, gentle to moderate SE winds will develop basin-wide by Wed night, then persist through late week.

Caribbean Sea

Daytime heating has led to scattered moderate afternoon convection across Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba this afternoon. An Atlantic cold front extends from the central Atlantic through 24N70W and through the central Bahamas and across western Cuba. High pressure along the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. Is north of the front and is currently yielding only a modest trade-wind regime across the basin this evening. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds prevail across south central portions, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the south central portions, and 3 to 5 ft in the Windward Passage, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will persist north of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin into the weekend, as the cold front gradually dissipates through Thu. Fresh NE winds will occur tonight through Wed night across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba as the cold front moves southward across Cuba, then dissipates along the N coast of Hispaniola Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from E of Bermuda through 31N60W, through the central Bahamas and into western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 180 nm east and southeast of this boundary. To the south, convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast of French Guiana, and State of Amapa in Brazil.

1030 mb high pressure is along the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. The associated pressure gradient between this high and front continues to produce fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft north of the front, except for moderate winds and seas offshore of NE Florida to 75W. Fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found ahead of the front, north of 27N between 56W and the front. To the east, 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 33N41W and extends a broad and weak ridge southward into the tropical Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the waters S of 23N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Large NW to N swell is moving through the northern waters, producing seas of 7 to 10 ft to the north of 24N between the Canary Islands and 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move southeastward and weaken through Thu, reaching from 25N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola Thu morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will continue to follow the front through Wed night, with conditions gradually improving late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over SE waters. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for the end of the week, bringing tranquil marine conditions to area waters through the weekend.

Posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling