Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 13N and between 18W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 15N and between 38W and 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 10N to 19N and between 81W and 88W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the border of Mauritania and Senegal at 16N16W and continues to 09N22W and then to 12N36W. The ITCZ extends from 12N36W to 09N44W and then from 09N46W to 06N58W. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A few showers are noted over the eastern Gulf waters associated with low-level convergence and an upper-level trough north of the area. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather conditions in the westernmost portion of the subtropical ridge. The weak pressure gradient results in moderate or weaker winds and slight seas over much of the Gulf waters. However, stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the stronger convection.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 10 ft occurring off NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 29 kt. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate easterly winds and slight to locally moderate seas prevail. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, no other significant convection is occurring in the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, the coverage area and strength of the trades will increase into Thu as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. By that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of our waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the basin in under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure system near 29N49W.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and frontal trough support fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 28N and west of 64W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be occurring near the stronger convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 24N and west of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This, in combination with a frontal boundary over the W Atlantic, will support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola from tonight through Sat.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado