Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis is confined to mostly over the African Continent. To its south, an ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 00N30W to 01N40W and to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-38W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 13W-20W, and also south of the ITCZ west of 39W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge axis extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high near the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen over the western Gulf per latest scatterometer satellite data, buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite data. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 ft or less are over most of the eastern Gulf areas. Mostly gentle southeast winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will shift eastward this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast overnight. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas will follow the cold front as it moves across the northern Gulf tonight through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week. Looking ahead, fresh southeast winds will return to the northwest Gulf by late Thu.

Caribbean Sea

A broad mid to upper-level trough stretches from the central Atlantic southwestward to the central Caribbean. To its east, a moist and unstable air mass is helping to promote isolated showers over the eastern section of the sea. The latest scatterometer satellite data generally reveals gentle to moderate trades east of about 72W. Seas are mostly 3 to 4 ft over this part of the basin. The scatterometer satellite data also indicates light to gentle winds over the remainder of the sea. Seas with these winds remain at 1 to 3 ft.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over northern Colombia and the northwest section of Venezuela. Similar activity is over the most of the interior of Hispaniola and over southeastern and south-central Cuba. This activity reaches the immediate coastal waters.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through midweek next week. Fresh northeast winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late-season cold front moving into Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N69W to 28N74W and to the northern Bahamas. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is southeast of this trough from 28N to 31N between 67W and 69W. Isolated showers are elsewhere north of 24N between 61W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for any additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. To the west of the same trough a weak 1017 mb high is near 30N77W, with associated weak ridging west and southwest of the trough. To the east-northeast, a rather large 1022 mb high center is north of the area at 33N48W. This feature controls the wind flow pattern across most of the western and central Atlantic. Its associated gradient is maintaining light to gentle winds north of 25N and between 35W and 45W. Seas with these winds are about 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are over the rest of the basin east of 35W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic will shift eastward tonight ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it reaches a position from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Mon, and from near 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue. Looking ahead, winds will diminish through mid week as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N and high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda following the front. Large N swell may linger near the dissipating front Wed into Thu.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre