Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. A Metop-B ASCAT pass from 0118 UTC confirmed gale-force winds near the NW coast of Colombia. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W, then extends southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 05N between 15W and 38W, and also S of 04N and W of 48W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. A few showers are developing over the far western Gulf.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pusling to between fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker in the NE Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean, with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern Colombia. The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras, and also through the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range in the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Sun night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough analyzed over the Lesser Antilles is helping to generate scattered showers between the northern end of the trough axis and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1031 mb high pressure located E of the Azores, and a 1029 mb high pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence of this ridge, strong to near-gale- force NE winds and very rough seas are observed N of 25N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Fresh to locally strong trades are blowing S of 25N and E of 70W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Mon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region.

Posted 29 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams