Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 33W, extending from 08N to 15N, and moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Only isolated showers are associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 60W, extending from 09N to 19N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. There is no convection associated with the wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 82W, from 10N to 18N, and moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 79W and 83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues to 11N27W to 1015 mb low pressure near 09N36W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N39W and continues to 09N51W to 08N61W. Scattered moderate convection is present offshore Africa, from 05N to 12N between Africa and 17W. Similar convection is from 06N to 10N between 36W and 45W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the from the coastal waters of Pensacola to the Tampa Bay area associated with a surface trough. Ahead of the trough the tail of a weak cold front moves across central Florida. The remainder Gulf is under the influence of a 1014 mb high centered near 26N91W, which is supporting light to gentle variable winds over the central and SE basin along with slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail in the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are also W of 95W while moderate or weaker NW winds are over the NE Gulf N of 28N.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the central Gulf to promote generally quiescent marine conditions for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching weak cold front across the SE U.S.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on any convection.

Atlantic ridging dominates north of the basin with 1008 mb low pressure analyzed just N of Panama near 10N79W. The pressure gradient between the two supports moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the increasing pressure gradient between the Colombian Low and western Atlantic high pressure along 25N-26N will boost trade winds to strong over the S central Caribbean tonight through the end of the week. Trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh beginning Wednesday night. A tropical wave entering the E Caribbean tonight will enhance showers and thunderstorms across the E and NE Caribbean tonight and tomorrow.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front is moving across the SW N Atlantic waters from 31N74W SW to central coastal Florida near 28N80W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead of this boundary, affecting the northern offshore waters N of 27N between 66W and 78W. The Azores High dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters and provides moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and the front over the SW waters supports moderate to fresh SSW winds W of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual - near 25N - through Fri. This in combination with a stationary front offshore of the Carolinas will force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 63W for the next several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from Wed through the weekend.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos