Special Feature

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will support pulsing NE winds to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night from tonight through Fri night. Rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 10N between 24W and 29W.

A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of West Africa; the wave axis is along 17.5W and south of 16N. Ahead of this wave, a weak 1014 mb low pressure has formed along the monsoon trough. Numerous moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 13N and east of 24W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues southwestward to a 1014 mb low pressure near 11N19.5W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 07N55W. See the Tropical Waves section for details on the convection near monsoon trough.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front is draped across Texas and Louisiana coast. An east to west upper trough across this same area is combining with plenty of low level moisture and diurnal heating to support scattered moderate convection across much of the northern Gulf waters north of 21N and west of 90W.

Outside of convection, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and into the western Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 24N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds, and slight to locally moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south central Caribbean.

The tight pressure gradient between the persistent subtropical Atlantic ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America continue to support strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring in the remainder of the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and over the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough and abundant tropical moisture continue to support numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 11N to 20.5N and west of 82.5W. These storms can produce gusty winds to near gale- force, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to gale- force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Fri night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale trade winds, and rough seas, will prevail across the central Caribbean through the remainder of the week and weekend. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic to 30N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N and between 51W and 63W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present in those waters. Convection is suppressed elsewhere across much of the basin due to a large plume of Saharan dust and mid- latitude dry air.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists across the basin, supporting moderate easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and between 70W and 80W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are evident south of 10N and east of 21W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas 3 to 6 ft prevail between the Canary Islands and the coast of West Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

$$ KRV

Posted 4 hours ago