Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. The tightening pressure gradient will increase winds in the south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on Friday night. Very rough seas to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation. This system is expected to move into a region of strong upper- level winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be decreasing. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 02N to 20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 29W and 36W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west- northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days.

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical wave with axis near 46W.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends southwestward to 10N33W to 14N44W then to 06.5N56W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 13W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across Florida and into the Gulf region will change little through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds are expected north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin effective Fri night.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, tradewinds will increase over the central Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale force just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into Sat morning. A strong tropical wave- Invest AL92 - should start impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow evening. Strong to near gale force along with areas of heavy rain are expected Fri night and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 28N47W. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center, mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, generated by AL92 are from 12N to 17N between 41W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected south of 22N tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al