Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 23W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 81W south of 20N, It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from western Panama to eastern Nicaragua.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W, and northwestward from there to 13N45W and to 13N50W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 12N57W. No significant convection is noted outside of what is described in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from northern Georgia to the coast of Louisiana. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. Elsewhere, ridging prevails anchored by 1017 mb high pressure near 24N92W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas, except for moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that area.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain centered over the basin through the middle of next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula each overnight as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 9 ft are with these trades as noted in early morning satellite altimeter data passes. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state with these trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest part of the basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft. In addition to the showers and thunderstorms from western Panama to eastern Nicaragua described in the Tropical Wave section above, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is active north of Bonaire in the southeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and Colombia low pressure will support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through much of next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW basin. A pair of tropical waves crossing the basin next week lead to enhanced winds after their passages.

Atlantic Ocean

1021 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda near 28N70W dominates the far western Atlantic west of 60W. Moderate SE winds and 3-4 ft seas are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, with fresh winds and seas to 5 ft near the northern entrance to the Windward Passage. Moderate SW winds and 4 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida, with gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere west of 60W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active north of 25N and west of 70W, southeast of an upper trough over the eastern U.S. Farther east, a trough extends from the north- central Atlantic 1016 mb low pressure near 29N58W to 28N60W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along this trough. A few thunderstorms are also active near a trough farther to the south extending from 28N55W to 25N57W. Elsewhere farther east, the basin in under the influence of broad 1027 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 36N40W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominating the northern parts of the waters will support light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.

Posted 1 hour, 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen