Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 72W from the SW Dominican Republic southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N southward between 66W and 73W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 47W.

Gulf Of America

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida and into the Gulf region. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the northern Gulf as diffluent winds aloft combine with southeasterly moisture return flow at the surface. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche also supports scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough axis. The subtropical ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds east of 88W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail west of 88W, strongest winds occurring near the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. Rough seas are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean along the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean early this week. East winds will pulse strong each evening into mid-week in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A diffluent pattern aloft and a surface trough analyzed from 22N64W to 31N55W is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 23N between 55W and 62W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams