Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: Tighter gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near 27N and a Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia to peak at gale- force Fri night and early Sat morning. Seas under these winds are expected to range between 12 and 14 ft. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 14N southward, and moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 13N between 31W and 37W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from eastern Dominican Republic southward into northeastern Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is seen at the northeastern Caribbean, including waters south of the Dominican Republic.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near the Cayman Islands southward into western Panama. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted at the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and waters near the Island of the Youth.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough stays mostly inland Africa. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from just off Guinea to 07N33W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N37W to near the coastal border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the first ITCZ segment from 04N to 10N between 15W and 21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present up to 90 nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front curves northwestward from Cedar Key, Florida to near Gulfport, Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just east of New Orleans. Aided by divergent flow aloft, a diurnal trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high south of New Orleans is dominating much of the Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the north-central and eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms at the north-central and northeastern Gulf today. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure is expected to persist across these areas into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A broad Atlantic Ridge near 27N continues to support a robust trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft dominate the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are found at the northwestern and part of the southwestern basin, including waters near the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough to very rough seas in the south-central basin through this morning, before expanding northward and covering the entire central basin this afternoon through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off Colombia will peak at gale- force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday today, diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1016 mb low off the Carolinas coast across 31N76W to beyond Palm Coast, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are evident up to 95 nm southeast of the front. Farther east, an upper-level low near 31N64W is enhancing thunderstorms north of 25N between 60W and 69W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The broad Atlantic Ridge near 27W is supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 22N and west of 65W, except moderate to fresh southerly winds off northeastern Florida and southern Georgia. Otherwise, gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are anticipated north of 22N between 60W and the Florida coast. Farther east, moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 22N between 35W and 65W. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 22N between 35W and the southwest Bahamas/Florida coast, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist. For the remainder of the tropical Atlantic west of 35W, mainly gentle E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds east of northeastern Florida through this evening. Otherwise, a broad ridge extending southwestward from a 1027 mb high near 34N50W across 31N61W to southern Florida will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon and night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Fri. A north-to- south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region early Fri through late Sat, reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night

Posted 1 hour, 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan