Tropical Waves

An central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 38W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 15N southward across western Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 14N to 16N between 63W and 70W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N25W. An ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 04N35W, then resumes from 02N41W to 02N49W. No significant convection is evident at this time.

Gulf Of America

A sharp mid/upper trough reaches from northeast Texas across the western Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant moisture and divergence aloft ahead of the trough is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection in the southerly flow across the central Gulf. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas are likely near these thunderstorms. Weak ridging extends from north- central Atlantic to Florida, supporting fresh SE winds across the Florida Straits, and moderate SE winds over the eastern Gulf where seas are 3-5 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere across the central and western Gulf is supporting light to gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Thu. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh to strong winds off the northern Yucatan. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf should continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and northeastern Gulf through at least Wed. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the far northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel due to divergent flow aloft ahead of a sharp mid/upper trough northwest of this area. Elsewhere, no significant convection is active at this time across the basin. Strong ridging over the Atlantic along with lower pressure far south over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds possible off the coast of central Colombia. Moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with rough seas through Thu night. These winds are expected to pulse to near-gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours into Thu. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and north of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. By Fri, most of the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south- central basin which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front is analyzed from 31N35W to 26N41W, then becomes stationary to 30N63W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are present near and behind the front. Farther south, fresh to strong SE winds and 8-10 ft seas are active from 15N to 26N and west of 58W into the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere south of 18N. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas will prevail across waters south of 25N through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. As the high weakens Wed night, winds and seas will diminish. The front will slide SE tonight and out of the region by Tue. Fresh NE winds and rough seas N of it will diminish Tue.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era