Special Features

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high near 31N35W and lower pressures over northern Africa supports strong to near gale force NE winds generally E of 20W and N of 17N. Winds are expected to increase today and accordingly, Meteo- France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone through at least 19/00 UTC. Rough seas will accompany these winds as well.

For more information, please read the Meteo-France warning text and High Seas forecast at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 11N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the south end of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 14N, and is nearly stationary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 04N to 08N between 50W and 55W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N, and is nearly stationary. Convection is addressed in the monsoon trough section below.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then continues southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 00N48W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen S of 06N between 23W and 37W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge over the Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico sustain fresh SE winds and moderate seas over much of the western and south- central Gulf waters. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. No convection is present in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through late week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings through mid-week.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft is sustaining scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of Hispaniola, the Windward Passage, and in the waters between Cuba and Jamaica. A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical high to the north and low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue night, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N61W to 25N70W. Coupling with an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 21N between 66W and 73W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring across much of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, most of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge stemming from a 1028 mb high centered near 31N35W. The pressure gradient between this high and low pressure along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is leading to fresh trades S of 24N, with gentle to moderate winds to the north. Locally strong trades and locally rough seas are ongoing from 07N to 13N between 42W and 47W, confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. Moderate seas generally prevail across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and rough seas with E swell east of the Leeward Islands and N of Hispaniola today. A weak surface trough from E of Bermuda to around 25N70W will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid-week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams