Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores near 34N36W and lower pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale- force northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds off the coast of Morocco. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC, with severe gusts. These winds will create rough seas of 10 ft and higher. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 20W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between 18W and 25W.

A tropical wave is along 45W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 09N between 40W and 50W, more concentrated on the east side of the wave axis. Moderate to fresh winds are associated with the wave.

Another tropical wave is along 57W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis S of 11N. This tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands tonight into Sat increasing the likelihood of showers.

A tropical wave is over the eastern caribbean along 70W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited over the Caribbean waters. Currently, the wave appears to enhance convection over Lake Maracaibo in western Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. The convection in this area is mainly associated with the tropical waves previously mentioned.

Gulf Of America

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and north of a stationary front that extends across western Cuba into the SE Gulf to near 23N87W. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and in the NW Gulf north of 28N between 92W and 95W. Moderate to rough seas are within the strongest winds, except in the Bay of Campeche where slight to moderate seas are noted. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today as the Atlantic ridge builds westward across the Gulf region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will allow moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located near 34N36W, reaches the NE Caribbean. The ridge, combined with the Colombian low, supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends across western Cuba and the SE Gulf of America. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the front. Farther south, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are observed in the Gulf of Honduras likely due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE of the United States and a broad are of low pressure in the eastern Pacific, offshore of Central America. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Then, winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the Meteo-France forecast region.

A frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front, particularly north of 27N. High pressure located over the SE of the United States follows this system. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 20N E of front to about 30W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 30W. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate late today into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr