Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 27.5W, extending from 089N to 18N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted near the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57.5W, extending from 08N to 20N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

A tropical wave that was previously analyzed in the central Caribbean with axis along 71.5W is no longer discernible at either the lower or mid levels.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 81.5W, from 09N to 18N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 77W and 83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16W and continues to 1014 mb low pressure near 11N31.5W to 10N39W to 13N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present near the coast of Africa, from 06N to 14N between Africa and 24W. Some isolated clusters of moderate convection are near the low.

Gulf Of America

An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Extends southwestward to northern Florida, and scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 29N and east of 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. A high pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 25.5N91W and is supporting light to gentle variable winds from the northwest to southeast of the high, with moderate anticyclonic winds around the outer periphery closer to the coasts. Seas are 1 to 2 ft near the high and the northwest to southeast ridging, and 2 to 4 ft around the outer periphery.

For the forecast, high pressure remaining over the central Gulf will lead toward generally quiescent conditions for the next several days. The exception is NE fresh winds just northwest of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching weak cold front.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on any convection.

Atlantic ridging dominates north of the basin with 1010 mb low pressure analyzed along the northern coast of Colombia at 10N75.5W. The pressure gradient between the two supports moderate to fresh trades from 11N to 18N between 68W and 80W in the central Caribbean, locally strong near Colombia, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, an increasing pressure gradient between the Colombian Low and high pressure north of the Caribbean will boost trades to strong over the S central Caribbean from tonight through the end of the week. Additionally, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh starting Wednesday night. A tropical wave moving through the E Caribbean will enhance showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface ridge extending from a 1024 mb center of high pressure near 31.5N46 extends southwestward to across the Central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. A stalled out frontal boundary is located from west-northwest of Bermuda to 1008 mb low pressure at 31.5N77W to the South Carolina Lowcountry. Troughing is ahead of this boundary over the discussion waters, analyzed from 31N68W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are found north of 27N between 60W and 77W, along with 5 to 7 ft seas and isolated to scattered moderate to strong convection. A mid to upper level low is to the southeast, supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 22N to 28N between 54W and 64W. No other significant convection is noted across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted around the ridging from the Canary and Madeira Islands southwestward to offshore Africa and the waters north of the monsoon trough to about 23N and to the east of 55W. Seas are mainly 5 to locally 8 ft across these waters. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, except locally fresh near northern Hispaniola, with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge associated with the Bermuda High will remain farther south than usual - near 25N - through Fri. This in combination with a stationary front offshore of the Carolinas is forcing fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N west of 63W for the next several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of Hispaniola from Wed through the weekend.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky