Tropical Waves

An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 08N to 12N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 17W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W from 03N to 19N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 78W, from eastern Panama to Jamaica, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection active off western Panama.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N16W and continues southwestward to 14N20W to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 09N between 25W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 25N87W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the basin except for moderate SE winds off the Tamaulipas coast of northeast Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active off southwest Florida and over the south-central Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight to moderate seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 7-9 ft seas persist across the south-central Caribbean, between high pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South America. Moderate E winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere except for gentle E winds and 2-4 ft over the far northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into the weekend, with rough seas there, and near gale force winds at times. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active northeast of the Leeward Islands from 20N to 27N between 55W and 65W, associated with an upper low centered near 25N60W, and a related surface trough along 60W from 20N to 28N. Additional showers and thundersotrms are active from 22n to 27N between 65W and 75W, and over the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh and 5-6 ft seas are noted either side of the trough from 22N to 27N between 50W and 65W, south of 1025 mb surface high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda near 34N60W. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted from the coast of Hispaniola through the southern Bahamas. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough along the SE U.S. Coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola to near the Windward Passage. A westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into mid-week, then approach the Bahamas by late week before shifting west of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. Weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters this weekend, bringing tranquil marine conditions.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen