Special Feature

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.4N 85.3W at 20/0300 UTC or about 110 nm S of Panama City, Florida, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 8 ft in the NE quadrant, where fresh to strong winds are present. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring north of 25N and east of 91W. A slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 38W, south of 19N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted over the nearby Caribbean waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and then to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 07N58W. A few showers are evident within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two that is currently over the eastern Gulf.

Elsewhere, a 1015 mb high center is analyzed over the western Gulf at 26N93W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds and slight seas are present off western Yucatan. Meanwhile, moderate to occasionally fresh SE-S winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present off Tamaulipas and southern Texas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two is near 28.0N 85.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Two will move to 28.3N 85.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 28.6N 85.7W Mon evening, 28.8N 86.2W Tue morning, 29.1N 87.0W Tue evening, 29.3N 88.1W Wed morning, and 29.2N 89.6W Wed evening. Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 29.0N 93.5W late Thu.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is resulting in strong to strong easterly trade winds over most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with the strongest winds near northwest Colombia. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are noted in these waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

A line of strong showers and thunderstorms is present in the SW Caribbean, south of 12N. Generally drier conditions are evident in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge will weaken some early this week, allowing the pressure gradient over the Caribbean to relax somewhat. This will diminish tradewinds to moderate to fresh speeds over most of the basin, with still strong winds pulsing in the south-central Caribbean and likely in the Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the north-central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. The gradient between these troughs and higher pressure to the north sustain moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas north of 25N and between 40W and 60W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and between 55W and 75W, along with moderate seas.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally near gale-force N-NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present north of 22N and east of 26W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the water passages between the Canary Islands. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough will move west from about 50W to 70W for the first half of this week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N during this time, with gentle winds to the north. Locally strong winds will pulse each evening N of Hispaniola and likely in the approaches of the Windward Passage.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado