Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 22W from 13N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from 00N to 05N between 19W and 27W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 50W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 01N45W, east of a tropical wave. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Scattered moderate convection has entered the NW Gulf waters mainly N of 25N and W of 88W. Elsewhere, the subtropical Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and much of the central and eastern Gulf waters. Satellite scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin. Seas are analyzed to range from 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will change little through late Mon, then weaken for the remainder of the week. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W tonight through Tue as a weak trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then become southeast at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW and northern Gulf W of 89W will continue into early Sun. In addition, increasing moisture over the southeastern Gulf beginning around the middle portion of the upcoming week should lead to increasing chances for unsettled weather in that part of the Gulf. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Satellite altimeter data supports an analysis of 4-7 ft seas across the Caribbean. Pockets of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are affecting the remainder of the region by generating isolated passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean well into the upcoming week bringing rough seas across those waters. Fresh to strong trades will pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. Fresh trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next week as N Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, providing for gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin. Pockets of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow may generate a few passing showers, especially in the western Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate most of the forecast region into early next week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun evening into Mon before stalling near 27N, then weaken and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as initially stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift east-southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure will weaken Wed allowing for the tight gradient to slacken leading to diminishing trades. Expect for increasing moisture along with unsettled weather conditions for the far western portion of the area beginning around the middle portion of the upcoming week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era