Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of 13N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 10N and between 50W and 58W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, south of 20N, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 59W and 67W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 05N53W. Isolated showers are present within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 23N and between 90W and 95W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas west of 93W and north of 23N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

An upper low moving across the Florida Keys and diurnal heating combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and nearby waters. Scattered showers are also affecting the NE Caribbean due to another upper level low north of the area and a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near gale-force force easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level low centered north of the Leeward Islands combine with a surface trough along 61W to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 26N and between 57W and 66W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and east of 30W.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 31 kt between Gran Canaria and Tenerife in the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system on Monday or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW waters north of 28N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado