Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N and east of 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 12N between 45W and 58W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Western Sahara near 23N16W and continues southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 10N and between 27W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across the basin. Divergence aloft is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered north of the islands and lower pressures in northern Colombia supported fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-11 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the lee of Cuba and off Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through Sun. Expect winds to reach near gale-force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper-level trough sinks across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1034 mb high pressure system centered north of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward to the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 20N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. A surface trough extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and a few showers are evident in the NW Bahamas and off SE Florida. Similar convection is occurring north of 27N and between 50W and 62W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. Coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado