Special Feature

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.7N 85.8W at 20/2100 UTC or 90 nm S of Panama City Florida, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 9 ft in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N and east of 90W. A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this afternoon or tonight. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands along 24W, from 06N to 19N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is presently occurring in association with the wave.

A well-defined Central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 23N, moving W at around 10 kt. Abundant dry Saharan air encompasses this wave, precluding any convection.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends southward from Jamaica along 76W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 14W west of 75W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 06N59W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 NM either side of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is also noted south of 14W west of 75W in association with the monsoon trough from the eastern North Pacific.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Two in the NE Gulf.

Away from the influence of Tropical Depression Two, 1016 mb high pressure centered near 25N92W dominates, leading to gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two is near 28.7N 85.8W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 29.0N 86.2W Tue morning, move to 29.3N 86.7W Tue afternoon, 29.6N 87.5W Wed morning, 29.6N 88.5W Wed afternoon, inland to 29.6N 89.8W Thu morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.5N 91.1W Thu afternoon. Two will change little in intensity as it moves to near 29.5N 93.9W Fri afternoon.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over South America is resulting in fresh easterly trade winds over most of the central and southwest Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted in these waters. Moderate winds and seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. In the NW basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 14W west of 75W in association with the monsoon trough from the eastern North Pacific.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds reaching fresh speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

An broad upper-level low has two surface trough reflections, from 26N49W to 30N47W and from 18N57W to 25N53W, respectively. These features are inducing isolated moderate convection from 19N-29N between 47W-61W. NW of these trough axes, moderate to locally fresh NE winds are being generated in the tighter pressure gradient between the features and the 1021 mb subtropical ridge centered near 30N61W. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate waters between 15N and 30N, E of 45W, otherwise winds in the basin are moderate or weaker. Moderate seas dominate the entire basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough located over the central Atlantic near 55W will move westward reaching near 60W by Tue morning, near 67W by Wed morning, and near 75W by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas E of the Bahamas are forecast elsewhere through Fri.

Posted 1 day, 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea/Konarik