Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 73W and extends from Haiti to the Venezuela/Colombia border where the wave appears to enhance moderate to isolated strong convection. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms follow the wave axis affecting mainly the waters from 13N to 16N between 64W and 73W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to the coast of Guyana near 08N60W. Convection is limited across the area.

Gulf Of America

The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly low level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture into the basin. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coastal waters on the N Gulf states. Similar convective activity is occurring over north-central Florida, mainly N of Lake Okeechobee. The ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds, except moderate to locally fresh winds over the SW Gulf. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft throughout.

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are 10 to 13 ft with these winds offshore Colombia based on altimeter data. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the SW part of the basin reaching the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate to rough seas are with the latter winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean, affecting mainly Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean into mid-week. East winds will pulse strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 23N between 50W and 67W. A surface trough is analyzed in this area and runs from 31N57W to 23N64W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Of note: While The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern and central Pacific, the Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet. No tropical waves are currently noted between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This pattern is typical during an El Nino year.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr