Special Features

Meteo-France Gale Warning East of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a complex low pressure system north of Madeira and a strong high pressure over Libya and Egypt results in strong to gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Agadir High Seas Marine Zone, forecast to continue through 03/18z. Very rough seas are occurring in these waters. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 04N36W and to 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 16N between 10W and 36W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure of 1017 mb has shifted to the Great Bahama Bank and low pressure is starting to establish basin-wide preceding the next cold front. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures preceding the next cold front over the southern United States support fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 26N and west of 85W. The seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas will continues over the northern Gulf waters this morning as a warm front associated with a low pressure system lifts northward. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf this afternoon and progress over the central basin through Sun, supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds in the wake of the front. High pressure will settle over the basin early next week, leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

Caribbean Sea

A weak surface trough extends across the Windward Passage to the southern Jamaica adjacent waters, which continues to generate a few showers in this region. A 1018 mb high over the Great Bahama Bank and a second high of 1018 mb SE of Bermuda continue to support moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the central and SE Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the central and southeastern Caribbean into early Mon as a broad subtropical ridge prevails to the north. Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela through this evening. Looking ahead, fresh NE winds are forecast to develop near the Greater Antilles through the Atlantic passages early next week and prevail through Wed night as high pressure builds to the north. Fresh to strong NE winds will also resume off Colombia Wed evening.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for information on a Meteo-France Gale Warning.

Surface high pressure and associated ridging dominates the SW N Atlantic waters and the central subtropical Atlantic waters. In between these centers of high pressure, a stationary front extends from 31N48W to 22N59W where a surface trough continues SW to the Virgin Islands. Winds and seas are mainly moderate or weaker over the subtropical waters W of 30W. In the far NE Atlantic, a large storm system is producing fresh to near gale-force W to NW winds north of 25N and east of 30W. Rough to very rough seas are affecting these waters. Farther south, moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the trade waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh W winds are expected north of 29N through this morning as a low pressure system emerges off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and moves eastward. Residual rough seas in NW swell occurring north of 29N between 61W and 55W will subside through this morning. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over the NW subtropical Atlantic offshores today ahead of the low pressure system moving through the SE U.S. Localized near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of northern Florida tonight, and rough seas are expected near and to the east of these winds. A cold front is slated to push offshore of the SE U.S. Tonight into Sun and progress eastward through early next week, supporting fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the region early next week.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos