Special Features

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 27.7N 97.2W at 17/0600 UTC or 10 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are currently around 9 ft. Strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the NW Gulf, well east of the center. The system is moving toward the northeast and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move along or roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast today. The system is expected to move farther inland over extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana tonight. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm today. Weakening is anticipated by tonight when the system moves farther inland. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 28W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity over Central America.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and east of 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and between 41W and 46W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One along the southern Texas coast.

The disturbance near the southern Texas coast and surface trough over the NW Gulf combine to producing showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters, while generally dry conditions are present elsewhere. Outside of the influence of PTC One, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring off northern Yucatan and moderate winds and moderate seas in the western and NE Gulf. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, One will move NE and just offshore of the Texas coast through Wed, reaching near 28.5N 95.6W Wed morning as a Tropical Depression, move to near 30.2N 93.3W Wed evening as it briefly strengthens to Tropical Storm strength, then continue inland to 32.1N 90.9W Thu morning, before dissipating Thu evening across east-central Louisiana. Large SW to S swell generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone is likely to cause large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions along the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish late Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The broad subtropical ridge forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, especially in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of 12N, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a western Atlantic ridge will remain in place north of the area along 27N-28N through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon, as a frontal system moves off the SE U.S. Coast. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through Sun. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW portions Wed through Thu night as an upper-level trough digs into the area.

Atlantic Ocean

The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge is the main feature of interest across the tropical Atlantic. The tight gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 27N and west of 65W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present north of 15N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1022 mb high pressure centered near 28N54W extends a ridge westward along 27N and across S Florida, and will dominate the forecast area through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night through the weekend as a cold front moves off the SE U.S coast. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 72W tonight will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado