Tropical Waves

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails S of 11N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough and E of 33W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers over the north- central and NE Gulf waters. A 1021 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf near 27N87W sustains fresh easterly winds south of 24N and between 87W and 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are occurring in the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean into mid-week. East winds will pulse strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era