Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1034 mb high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force tonight, Tue night and Wed night. Rough to locally very rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW Caribbean in the wake of the front. This will result in the continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 03S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 08N east of 26W, and from 05S to 00N between 26W and 36W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail SE of a line from central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Mainly gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, will diminish tonight. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds and building seas, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, late tonight through Wed. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Gale conditions are possible over the west- central waters, including the Tampico area by Sat night.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale warning offshore Colombia.

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. A tight pressure gradient behind the front is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas W of the front. Fresh to strong winds prevail off Colombia, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are noted.

For the forecast, frequent gusts to gale force are forecast at night and early morning hours offshore Colombia through Thu. A stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will gradually dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will persist over the NW Caribbean W of the front. By late Tue, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will reinforce the northerly winds over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions will improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of heavy rainfall through mid-week. Looking ahead, an area of moisture, currently located over the central Atlantic, will reach the Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Cuba. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are found W of the front. The remainder of the basin is dominated by high pressure. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-12 ft prevail E of 60W, with moderate winds and seas of 6-8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W through Thu. A cold front extends from near Bermuda to 26N73W where it transitions to a stationary front. This feature will stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Tue, then lift N while dissipating on Wed. High pressure building over the SE of the United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh to strong speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al