Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal waters. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N13W southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 04S36W. Numerous scattered moderate convection is ongoing south of 00N and west of 26W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from north of Cedar Key, Florida to Port O'Connor, Texas. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds are found south of 26N and west of 87W, along with 3-5 ft seas. Northeast to east moderate winds are found over the northern Gulf along with 2 to 4 ft seas. Mainly gentle variable winds are across the remainder of the basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf through this afternoon, locally strong near Yucatan this evening. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal waters. Seas are forecast to build to around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine conditions should significantly improve early next week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure northeast of the eastern Bahamas and a 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northern Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are about 5 to 8 ft in these areas. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail elsewhere, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N over the SW Caribbean, supported by a mid to upper- level trough persisting across the NW Caribbean. Additional moisture associated to an upper level trough extends from across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to south of Hispaniola near 14N71W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night, stalling just north of there into Mon. This will slight weaken the pressure gradient and winds.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak 1011 mb surface low near 30N79.5W extends a warm front to 29.5N76.5W. Then, a cold front extends from 29.5N76.5W to beyond 31N69W over the western Atlantic. A 1016 mb high pressure is NE of the Eastern Bahamas near 24.5N67.5W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters west 55W with 4-6 ft seas. To the east, a cold front extends from a occluded 1005 mb low north of the area near 34.5N42W to 31N37W to 29.5N57W. To the SE an old frontal boundary extends from 30N30W to 20.5N62.5W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along this feature. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are found across the waters north of 23N, roughly between 26W and 55W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area in NW-N swell. A 1021 mb high pressure near 28N21W extends ridge that reaches southwestward to near 20N52W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters along with 4-7 ft seas in mainly NW-N swell, with locally fresh winds from 13N to 18N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front over the western Atlantic will move eastward across the north waters through Sat while dissipating. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N68W to Cape Canaveral, Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede the front Sat and Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through Mon, along with locally rough seas near 31N. The remnants of the front should wash out Tue and Tue night with improving marine conditions.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv