Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is around 17W/18W from 14N southward, moving very slowly. There is some indication that this wave may need to be repositioned in the next day or so when additional data becomes available. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 13W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 12N southward to northern Brazil, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 48W and 52W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from 19N southward across eastern Jamaica to the northern coast of Colombia. This tropical wave was previously analyzed to the east, but the latest observations, satellite imagery, and analysis tools indicates that it is near 77W, and is likely to get absorbed or merge its vorticity with that of the Colombian/Panamanian low. There is no deep convection noted over water, but active convection is present over portions of northern and NW Colombia, possibly enhanced by this feature.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 05N36W to 03.5N49.5W. Other than the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate is noted from 01N to 06N between 26W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting mainly gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf. In the western Gulf, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Texas is leading to moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through mid-week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge along 31N and a 1007 mb low pressure over western Panama is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in the central and part of the southwestern basin, from 10N to 16N between 70W and 82W. Fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except more tranquil conditions across the approach to the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean through Tuesday night as well. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends SE from 31N59W to near the SE and Central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection extends up to 240 nm on either side of this boundary. Otherwise, broad ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N32W dominates. Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the waters north of 29N between 32W and 78W and with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the remainder of the waters, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in N to NE swell south of 23N and east of 62W, and 4 to 7 ft seas in easterly swells elsewhere south of 29N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into tonight mainly east of the Leeward Islands. A weak frontal remnant trough extending from 31N59W to the Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid-week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky