Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 22W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N and between 35W and 45W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 72W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted along the trough axis over the Caribbean waters.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. No convection is found along the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 07N40W and continues from 07N42W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 10N and between 27W and 35W and also south of 09N and west of 45W.

Gulf Of America

Diurnal storms the developed over Florida and the NE Gulf coast are affecting the nearshore waters. Similarly, thunderstorms over western Yucatan are moving into the eastern Bay of Campeche. The Gulf is dominated by a weak ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh NE-E and seas of 2-4 ft off Yucatan and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sun night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in Cuba and Hispaniola and affecting the nearshore waters. Similar convection is seen in the Gulf of Honduras. The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds to 30 kt. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sun night, except offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to reach near gale-force at night. Moderate to rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal boundary draped along 31N over the SW North Atlantic is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N and between 55W and 73W. Meanwhile, a surface trough in the north-central Atlantic supports isolated showers from 24N to 29N and between 43W and 50W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas are found north of 28N and west of 75W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft south of 22N and east of 30W.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 6-10 ft are evident north of 22N and east of 25W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 33 kt between the water passages in the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front is across the NW waters, and extends from 30N70W to 28N77W. The front will dissipate and its remnant trough will drift southward trough Wed morning, then begin moving westward toward the southeastern U.S. Coast late Wed into Thu. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds are expected, except for moderate to fresh winds offshore Hispaniola mainly late in the afternoons into the early evening hours.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado