Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC.

Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across the basin Sunday through early Tuesday. Arctic high pressure of near 1040 mb will move into Texas Sun night and settle in behind the front, and is expected to drive strong to near gale-force NW to N winds across NW and N central portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night. Gale conditions are forecast within the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and within the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Seas will quickly build behind the front, with peak seas forecast to 17 ft in the SW Gulf on Monday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 05N10W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 07N between 12W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

1012 low pressure is centered just south of Houston, TX, near 29N96W. A warm front extends eastward across the northern Gulf to Cedar Key, FL. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 90W and 95W. Fresh NE to E winds are north of the front with 3-5 ft seas. South of the front, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, an elongated low pressure will form in the NW Gulf this afternoon and deepen as it tracks NE into Louisiana by early Sun pulling the warm front N of the area. This will take place in advance of an arctic front expected to move into the Texas coastal waters this afternoon. The front will then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing arctic high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale conditions over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and gales over the waters offshore Veracruz Mon and Mon night. Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin starting Sun. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

This morning's scatterometer indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with 3-6 ft seas. A surface trough is analyzed just west of the Windward Passage. Arriving E swell from the tropical Atlantic may bring locally higher seas to the passages between the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the east central Atlantic will continue to maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong speeds at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through Tue night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before gradually diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

The earlier analyzed cold front in the east Atlantic has dissipated, though lingering N swell with 12-15 ft seas persists near the Canary Islands. Scatterometer data from earlier this morning indicates a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds, from 10N to 25N east of 50W. Seas in this area of winds are 8-10 ft, and reach the Lesser Antilles. A cold front is entering the far NW waters, with fresh to strong NE winds and building seas following the front. A surface trough producing a few showers is across the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, high pressure and moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough and ridge will shift slowly NE through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon in advance of a strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N51W to 26N60W then stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon, becoming mostly fresh NE winds Tue night and Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal boundary. The frontal boundary will become nearly stationary from near 29N55W to 25N66W and to near 20N70W by late Thu as another strong cold front moves over the NW forecast waters.

Posted 1 hour, 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney