Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N13W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01S49W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 27W.

Gulf Of America

1020 mb high pressure centered in the E Gulf provides for gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid-week.

Caribbean Sea

A trough extends from SE Puerto Rico near 18N66W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 13N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Fresh to strong NE winds persist north of the surface trough, including within the Mona Passage, Windward Passage, and lee of Cuba. Seas are 4-7 ft in these regions. Elsewhere in the western Caribbean, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the central and eastern Caribbean south and east of the trough, trades are light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into Mon night. Then, the high pressure will drift east, and fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nightly into late week offshore Colombia.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 1006 mb low pressure near 33N54W to eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 22N and east of the front to 50W. North of 25N and west of the front to 65W, fresh to strong NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8-12 ft north of 22N between 50W and 65W. In the eastern Atlantic, seas of 8-11 ft are analyzed across the basin east of 45W in NE swell generated by a weakening 999 mb low near the Canary Islands. Seas range from 12-14 ft north of 27N between 20W and 28W. Winds in the far NE Atlantic remain near fresh speeds along the southern side of the low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. A new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N into mid-week before the front lifts northward.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era