Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is 18W from 11N southward, and moving westward around 5 kt. There is some indication that this wave may need to be repositioned in the next day or so when additional data becomes available. Scattered showers are noted from 01N to 06N between 17W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 13N southward to along the Suriname-French Guiana border, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over French Guiana and nearby waters.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from near Jamaica southward to eastern Panama. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring over eastern Panama.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 04N21W. An ITCZ continues from 04N21W to just east of the Amazon River Delta. Scattered showers are occurring near the ITCZ from the Equator to 03N between 23W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the west-central Gulf. This feature is supporting mainly gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the north-central, east-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. In the western Gulf, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Texas is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas. Locally strong E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist off the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist through mid- week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

Enhanced by an upper-level trough across the western Atlantic to near Hispaniola, convergent trade winds are triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba and Hispaniola. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Tight pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south-central basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft exist in the northwestern basin, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the 1026 mb Bermuda high and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin and the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean through early Wednesday morning as well. Rough seas associated with large E swell will impact waters near the Lesser Antilles into Tue, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to near the southeast Bahamas. Coupling with an upper-level trough near 72W, scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 22N between 65W and 72W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident north of 20N west of 70W, including the Great Bahama Bank. A broad Atlantic Ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores High across 31N35W to near 25N63W is sustaining gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas north of 27N between 35W and 70W. Farther south from 05N to 20N/27N between 35W and 70W/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Atlantic Ridge will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into tonight, mainly east of the Leeward Islands. A weak frontal remnant trough extending from 31N58W to the southern Bahamas will dissipate later tonight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through midweek.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan