Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 31W from 06N to 17N, moving west at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 46W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 86W and S of 20N, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from eastern Panama to northeast Costa Rica.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 23N16W and continues southwestward to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 06N57W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 31W-44W.

Gulf Of America

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. A mid-to-upper level trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms active over the southeast Gulf and the Florida peninsula.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin, promoting gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Pulses of fresh winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, locally strong tonight, along with moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the basin.

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 9 ft seas persist across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South America. Moderate E winds and 3-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale- force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A mid-to-upper level trough extends from between Bermuda and eastern Cuba is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along a surface trough extending from 27N67W to 20N71W. Fresh E winds and rough seas are ongoing near the trough, from 23N to 26N between 65W and 672W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid-to-upper level trough will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas through at least tonight. A westward moving surface trough moving N of Hispaniola tonight will approach the Bahamas Thu before shifting west of the area by late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. Winds may pulse to fresh to strong at times from north of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage. Otherwise, weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters during the upcoming weekend and into early next week, bringing tranquil marine conditions.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era