Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, S of 15N, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, S of 16N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 53W and 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 19N between 74W and 80W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends SW to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N32W, then from 05.5N35.5W to 05N43W, then from 06N47W to 05.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 20W and 31W, and from 02N to 09N between 35W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

Surface ridging prevails across the northern basin. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure around TS Cristina and TD Boris is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters W of 90W as well as the SE Gulf. Gentle winds are noted over the NE Gulf. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range W of 90W, and 2-4 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf through much of this week. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, on Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the Caribbean waters. The interaction of a tropical wave and upper level troughing is supporting active convection over the western waters in the vicinity of the tropical wave.

For the forecast, a gradual increase in winds up to fresh to strong speeds are expected later this afternoon and evening. These conditions will prevail through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 27N71W to 24N77W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N60W to 26N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and E of second trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 36N34W. Moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, are N of 20N and W of 50W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 20N and E of 25W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the first trough will remain nearly stationary through midweek. The other trough will move across the N waters today, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the frontal remnant trough will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al