Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of northern Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 02N31W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 02N31W to 01N41W, then turns northwestward to near the coast of Suriname. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 06N east of 21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 155 nm north of the ITCZ west of 45W.

Gulf Of America

Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms southeast of New Orleans in the north-central Gulf. Otherwise, ridging remains over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will gradually diminish today in the southeastern Gulf. High pressure will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin-wide by tonight, then prevailing through late week.

Caribbean Sea

The tail-end of a cold front is creating scattered showers across eastern Cuba and near the north coast of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage. Farther west, a surface trough is bringing patchy showers in the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen in the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight as a late-season cold front moves across Cuba, then dissipates along the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight into Thu. The Atlantic high pressure located north of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31n50w to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 230 nm southeast of this feature. To the south, a surface trough is causing scattered showers east of the northern Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for more information.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are present behind the cold front, except gentle to moderate winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft off northeastern Florida. To the east, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate north of 20N between 35W and cold front. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas exist.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend, with the exception of the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected as a cold front clips the area on Sat

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan