Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 24N between 22W and 27W.

A second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

A third tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 79W south of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N54W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 11N54W. Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 34W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1017 mb center near 24N89W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of 3 ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter data. Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north-central Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between Tuxpan and Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave is moving across the western half of the basin. Refer to the section above for details.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is moving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the rest of the basin, aside from the northwest basin where lesser winds will dominate. A tropical wave currently over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those waters.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section above for details.

A trough is analyzed over Florida, reaching the W Atlantic from 29N78W to 27N80W. To the E, a 1021 mb high is centered near 26N72W. A weak 1018 mb low is centered east-southeast of Bermuda near 30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near these features. A surface through is analyzed from 28N39W to 22N43W with scattered showers. Elsewhere west of 55W, the subtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to SE winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south of the ridge, supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge with a 1028 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. This system supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola, through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week freshening the trade winds. Yet, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over those waters.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era