Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 16N to 05N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, from 16N to 05N, moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W, from 17N to 05N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N to central coastal Panama, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with a middle level trough, which is enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 72W and 83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends SW to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 05N38W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 25W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails across the central and eastern Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered nearby the Florida Big Bend near 29N84W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over the remainder Gulf due to the proximity of TS Boris and TS Cristina is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the Gulf waters W of 87W along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail elsewhere along with slight seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through the week, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings through at least Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas.

Caribbean Sea

A strong pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge, a tropical wave with axis along 79W, and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific, offshore of Nicaragua, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate seas in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned conditions will likely last through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche perhaps later Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 31N65W to 24N74W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and E of the trough axis mainly W of 60W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 216N, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 35N32W. Moderate or weaker winds are N of 20N and W of 40W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 30W and 40W while fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere E of 30W along with rough seas to 10 ft. Across the tropical Atlantic waters, winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will remain nearly stationary through midweek. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos