Special Features

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high near 31N35W and lower pressures over northern Africa supports strong to near gale force NE winds generally E of 20W and N of 17N. Winds are expected to increase today and accordingly, Meteo- France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone through at least 19/00 UTC. Rough seas will accompany these winds as well.

For more information, please read the Meteo-France warning text and High Seas forecast at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Patchy showers are seen from 02N to 06N between 20W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands near 56W from 14N southward to over Suriname, and nearly stationary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across Suriname and French Guiana.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 16N southward across the western Panama and nearly stationary. Convection is addressed in the monsoon trough section below.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast just north of Conakry, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. Farther west, an ITCZ reaches westward from 04N25W to 02N43W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is present up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end fo the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

Gulf Of America

A modest surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico. A thermal trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just off central and southwestern Florida. Otherwise, the ridge is supporting gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas exist north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain across the northern Gulf through the week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings through midweek.

Caribbean Sea

An upper-level trough reaches southeastward from a low east of the northwest Bahamas at 28N74W to southeast of Puerto Rico. It is enhancing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across Cuba and Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds continues across the south-central basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas at the south-central basin are from 8 to 10 ft, and 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with 2 to 5 ft seas are present at the lee of Cuba and, near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles into Tue night, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough meanders west-southwestward from 32N49W to 28N73W. Coupling with an upper-level low east of the northwest Bahamas near 28N74W, scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 21N between 66W and 73W, and over the northwest and central Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident north of 20N west of 68W, except moderate to fresh winds with 4 to 6 ft seas off northern Hispaniola. To the east, a subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1027 mb Atlantic High near 31N32W to north of the Lesser Antilles near 27N60W is sustaining gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 25N between 35W and 68W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate from 04N to 25N between 35W and 68W/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will support fresh trade winds and rough seas with E swell east of the Leeward Islands and north of Hispaniola Thu. A surface trough from south of Bermuda to around 29N73W will dissipate tonight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid-week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan