Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27.5W, S of 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 62.5W, S of 19N, and is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17.5W, and continues southwestward to 01.5N26.5W. The ITCZ continues from 00.5N29W to near 00N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 03N between 26W and 47W. Isolated convection is noted S of 06.5N and east of 23W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf and the relatively lower pressures in central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the western Gulf and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas over these waters are in the 3-5 ft range. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf with lower pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through Wed night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. Similar winds will pulse from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico late tonight into early Wed. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-cetral Caribbean including the Gulf of Venezuela, and seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, generally prevail elsewhere, except for the Gulf of Honduras and north of Jamaica, where fresh winds prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1016 mb low pressure near 32N61W extends a stationary front through 31N61W to 25N70W to 1014 mb low pressure in the northern Bahamas at 26N78W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail east of the front and north of 28N. West of the front gentle to locally moderate winds prevail along with seas to 6 ft. A surface trough is analyzed from 29.5N16W to 24N30W. The pressure gradient between the surface trough, and a 1029 mb high centered N of the area near 41N29W is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of 25N between 17W and 34W. Seas within these winds are 6 to 9 ft. The remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N are dominated by high pressure. Moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail S of 15N between 35W and 60W. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds in the SE quadrant of the low will impact the waters just south of 31N and east of the front through Wed as the low slowly shifts northeast. The northern portion of the front will slowly progress east as a cold front while the southern portion dissipates. A weak cold front will move off northern Florida Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Winds may freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of another front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv