Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the Florida Keys to the N Yucatan Peninsula and then southwestward across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale-force NW winds are present off Veracruz. The National Weather Service of Mexico (CONAGUA) reported a wind gust of 53 kt near Veracruz this evening. These winds are also producing very rough seas in the waters off Veracruz. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale-force northerly winds over much of the basin. Rough to very rough seas are noted in these waters. The front will continue to shift southeastward and exit the basin late tonight. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will prevail behind the front. Gale-force winds offshore of Veracruz will continue through sunrise before diminishing. Winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N73W southwestward across the far NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that gale-force NW winds are occurring off NE Florida. Strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas are expected behind the front through early Mon. These winds result in rough to very rough seas. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu. While winds are forecast to subside below gale force on Monday, strong to near-gale NW winds will persist over much of the western Atlantic until Tue afternoon, with seas remaining in the 12 to 15 ft range. Conditions are expected to improve thereafter.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W and continues southwestward to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 01N30W and to 01S45W. A few showers are noted near the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche. A few showers are seen near the boundary. The pressure gradient between a robust ridge over Texas and the lower pressures associated with the front results in fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in behind the front and shift E-SE across the Gulf Tue through Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the W Gulf midweek ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening.

Caribbean Sea

A strong cold front approaches the NW Caribbean, currently extending from the Florida Straits to NE Yucatan. A few showers are evident in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas are present in the Yucatan Channel. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will diminish overnight as high pressure to the north weakens. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean by midnight tonight. The front will reach from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border by Tue morning, then stall and dissipate from central Dominican Republic to SE Nicaragua Wed. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. Broad high pressure across the central and western Atlantic Thu and Fri will bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a W Atlantic Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is evident ahead of the front. Strong to near gale-force NW winds and rough to very rough seas are noted behind the boundary. Fresh to near gale-force SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front, especially north of 27N and east of 60W. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the east and central tropical Atlantic with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 26N38W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures north of the area support moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds and moderate to rough seas north of 26N and between 60W and 30W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-10 ft are present south of 20N and west of 30W. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off NE South America. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad high pressure ridge will prevail across the region Thu and Fri.

Posted 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado