Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 12N15W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01S25W to 01S40W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 16W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 00N to 01N between 25W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends southwestward from Fort Myers, Florida to 24N90W, where it becomes a stationary front extending westward to 24N95W then southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are N of the front over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the remainder of the waters, except fresh NE winds west of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 5-7 ft behind the front, and 2-4 ft ahead of the front.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the cold front through Mon. On Tue, the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume moving southward into Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

Caribbean Sea

The cold front moving across the Gulf and western Atlantic is displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. As a result, the only areas of moderate to fresh E winds are likely over the far northeastern Caribbean, off Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola, and off central Colombia. Seas are 5-6 ft in these areas. Moderate E winds and 3-5 ft seas are ongoing elsewhere east of 75W. Mostly gentle NE to E winds and 2-4 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 75W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time.

For the forecast, the weak Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over much of the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong NE winds will develop Tue night and Wed across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late- season cold front moving slowly across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate across eastern Cuba late Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N72W to Stuart, Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds with 6-9 ft seas are evident north of the front. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the front as well. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active along a trough ahead of the front extending from 30N70W to the central Bahamas. A broad ridge dominates the remainder of the discussion area, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure over the north-cental Atlantic near 41N43W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving southeastward, reaching from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late this afternoon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish Tue night as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N by late Wed. Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu through Fri, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE swell will linger near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters near the Windward Passage.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen