Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 35W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 12N between 29W and 36W, and from 03N to 07N between 37W and 45W.

A tropical wave is along 65W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate convection is S of 16N between 63W and 68W.

A tropical wave is along 81W from 19N southward into Panama. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 22N between 78W and 84W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 10N14W to 07N24W to 06N35W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N40W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 13W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends across northern Florida to the Florida Big Bend to southern Mississippi. Scattered to isolated showers associated with this front are ongoing in the NE Gulf. A 1018 mb high is offshore Louisina and extends a ridge across the remainder Gulf, which is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 90W, gentle to moderate E winds in the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Slight seas are basin-wide.

For the forecast, the stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms at the northeastern Gulf tonight and Thu. A ridge is expected to persist across the north-central and northeastern Gulf into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE winds across far northwest portions through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf Mon night.

Caribbean Sea

A broad Atlantic Ridge continues to sustain a robust trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean basin. This is sustaining moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas in the E Caribbean, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds over the central basin along with rough seas to 12 ft, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging N of the basin and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough seas in the south-central basin through tonight, before expanding northward and covering the entire central basin Thu morning through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night, winds off Colombia will peak at gale-force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday Thu, diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad surface ridge dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters E of 71W and is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas. Moderate or weaker E to SE winds are elsewhere W of 71W ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N77W to 29N81W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead and along the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with strong gusty winds will continue across the waters offshore of Florida and the NW Bahamas through Thu, along and SE of a stalled front and pre-frontal surface rough across the NW zones. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon through night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Fri. A N to S aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region early Fri through late Sat, reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the far NW zones off of NE Florida Mon night.

Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos