Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Sun evening, then move southeastward across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale northerly winds will follow behind the front, peaking at gale to strong gale-force off the Texas coast Sun night through early Mon morning, then off the Mexico coast from the Texas-Mexico border southward to near Veracruz Mon and Mon evening. Seas will peak between 15 and 18 ft under the strongest winds. Winds off Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico could gust up to storm-force Mon and Mon afternoon. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from north to south starting late Mon afternoon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 04N19W. An ITCZ continues from 04N19W across 00N27W to near Fortaleza, Brazil at 03S38W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from 04S to 03N between 20W and 35W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N between 11W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section above for an upcoming Gale Warning.

Two surface troughs, one near the Yucatan Peninsular and another over Florida are triggering widely scattered moderate convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad but weak surface ridge continues to dominate the eastern and central Gulf with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sun night, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Please refer the Special Features section for more detail. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.

Caribbean Sea

A relatively fair trade-wind pattern continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the eastern, north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 1 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure will build westward across the central and western Atlantic on Sun, with the resulting pressure gradient leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the waters east of the Lesser Antilles on Sun to the eastern and central Caribbean, including the passages on Mon. The pressure gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches the northwestern Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along a trough extending southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N69W to near the northwest Bahamas. Farther east, widely scattered thunderstorms are occurring near a surface trough from 21N to 25N between 26W and 31W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found off northeastern Florida, and from 20N to 24N and west of 50W, including the southeast Bahamas. For north of 24N and west of 50W, gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are found. To the east and southeast from the Equator to 31N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in large NE to E swell exist. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N and west of 50W, fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will build toward the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. The front will move off the U.S. Southeast coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop north of 28N and west of 64W starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front through Tue. To the south, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters east of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during midweek.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan