Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge extends from a 1029 high pressure located near Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf region. Under the influence of this system, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are present, except in the Straits of Florida where fresh to locally strong E winds are ongoing. Seas are in general 5 to 8 ft with these winds, occasionally higher in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are ongoing in the NW Gulf as a cold front approaches the region.

For the forecast, a cold front will push offshore the Texas coast tonight and move slowly southeastward across the basin through Mon night. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong east winds will continue across the Straits of Florida and over the far southeastern Gulf through late tonight. Behind the front, strong northeast winds and rough seas are expect across portions of the western Gulf Sun into Mon, with these conditions spreading into the NE Gulf Mon night through early Thu, at which time they will improve some. There may be potential for winds in the northeast part of the NE Gulf to reach gale-force Wed and Wed night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may precede the front.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are and moderate seas noted, except in the SW Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are occurring. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia into tonight. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward Sun allowing for the pressure gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. A surface trough located just north of Hispaniola will drift west- northwestward toward the Bahamas through Tue. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough is analyzed from 29N72W to the SE Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms are on increase on either side of the trough axis. Currently, the associated convective activity covers the waters south of 25N between 65W and 80W, including most of the Bahamas. All these weather conditions are related to a short-wave trough located over the same area. High pressure is over just about the entire forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the subtropics and tropics is producing fresh to strong east winds south of about 26N and W of 55W. Rough seas up to 11 ft are present with these winds east of the Bahamas. Farther E, another surface trough, associated with an upper-level low, extends from 30N43W to 21N42W. A few showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis that is clearly defined in scatterometer data. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are on either side of the trough axis. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, marine conditions will improve Sun night into Mon as the high pressure weakens and slides eastward in response to an approaching cold front. This front will slowly move off the southeastern U.S. And northeast Florida Sun night reaching from near 31N76W to east-central Florida Mon afternoon, from near 31N70W to South Florida Tue afternoon, from near 31N63W to the Straits of Florida by Wed afternoon. Then stall into Thu night. The aforementioned trough will continue to drift west- northwestward eventually merging with the frontal boundary late Tue. Low pressure may then form along the frontal boundary and track northeastward to north of 31N on Wed, while an expansive area of strong high pressure builds southward up against the frontal boundary and low pressure. The resulting tight pressure gradient will lead to widespread strong to near gale-force northeast to east winds behind the frontal boundary along with rough to very rough seas beginning Tue. The potential exists for these winds attaining gale-force speeds. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr