Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 04-08N between 27W-31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found along the wave axis and N of 06N.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 68W, south of 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is present at this time.

Gulf Of America

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh NE-E winds W of 90W, and moderate SE winds E of 90W. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands combine with a surface trough along 63W to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 26N and between 57W and 64W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and east of 30W.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through today. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. A weak cold front will push off of the SE United States coast today and extend from 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system today or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW waters north of 28N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era