Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 09N with axis near 38W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and between 33W and 40W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 01N34W and then from 01S39W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 07N and between 17W and 33W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to 29N90W, then a stationary front continues southwestward to NE Tamaulipas. Strong showers and thunderstorms are affecting the western Gulf waters. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin supporting tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring off northern Yucatan and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the offshore waters of the western Gulf will spread to the north-central and NE Gulf by tonight as the front sinks a bit farther south. The front will then stall and lift back to the north as a warm front late tonight thru Sat. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the Gulf from the east. Winds will pulse to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from north- central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front.

Caribbean Sea

Broad high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with nighttime pulses to near-gale in the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through early next week. Similar conditions are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras, through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front has entered the waters off NE Florida supporting moderate southerly winds and moderate seas north of 29N and west of 65W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. In the far NE Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N18W to 27N30W, followed by a dissipating cold front to 30N41W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring behind the front. Meanwhile, moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front off NE Florida will gradually weaken through Sat as it shifts eastward north of 28N. Southerly moderate winds ahead of the front occurring off NE Florida will diminish this afternoon. A stronger cold front is expected to follow a similar path Mon through Tue, followed by moderate to fresh winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Meanwhile, a surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 28N65W will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola might Sat through Mon nights.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado