Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: At 1341 UTC, a scatterometer pass indicated strong to near-gale-force winds occurring in the south-central Caribbean offshore northern Colombia. Frequent gusts to gale-force can be anticipated at times this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively low pressure over Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela peaking at gale-force again tonight into Sun morning. These winds are forecast to produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 10N35W to 01N40W, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is largely W of the wave, south of 10N between 37W and 47W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 20N50W to 07N58W, and is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 15N between 52W and 62W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing shower activity in Central America and along the eastern Pacific coast.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N24W. The ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 08N34W and then from 03N40W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east of 20W between 04N and 14N.

Gulf Of America

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the Bay of Campeche as a tropical wave passes by to the south. Ridging extending over the eastern Gulf waters supports moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds and seas of 3-5 ft west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist over the Gulf region through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across the northwestern Gulf through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night into Tue and gradually dissipate.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off Colombia.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, as well as the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the islands combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours today and tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward Passage late this afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A couple of surface troughs located along 65W and 58W are producing scattered showers north of 22N and between 55W and 65W. Upper level jet dynamics, along with a tropical wave passing to the south, are supporting scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 45W and 49W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the convergent surface winds off SE Florida and the NW Bahamas. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a persistent subtropical ridge will dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola expected this afternoon and tonight. A nearly north-to- south aligned surface trough located near 65W will shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning while dissipating. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night and gradually dissipate.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams