Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N45.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 07N east of 28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

Two surface troughs in the north-central Gulf are supporting widely scattered showers in the region. A weakening stationary front extends from the Florida Straits through the central Gulf, with a surface trough continuing westward toward northeastern Mexico. No significant convection is occurring near these features. Elsewhere, a 1018 mb high has been analyzed over the southwestern Gulf. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the western Gulf through midweek as high pressure builds over the central basin and drifts eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will prevail over the rest of the basin. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S winds and widespread moderate seas will develop west of 90W by early Thu, as a complex low pressure system over the central United States strengthens. A cold front associated with this storm system is slated to center the northern Gulf by next weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A 1013 mb low has been analyzed along the north coast of Jamaica, and a surface trough extends northeastward through the Windward Passage, and southward from the low to 13N74W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring near the low and through the passage, with mainly moderate N to NE winds occurring elsewhere in the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected over the north-central through western Caribbean early this week as high pressure over the Gulf of America moves eastward. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail over the rest of the basin through midweek. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop over the central basin by Tue evening, supporting locally rough seas near and to the west of these winds. Looking ahead, widespread fresh trade winds may develop over much of the basin late this week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N60W southwestward toward the central Bahamas, with a decaying stationary front continuing westward through the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring north and west of the cold front, and rough seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail north of 28N between 55W and 73.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and locally rough seas are noted to the east of the front, north of 29N. A surface trough has been analyzed south and east of the front, from 28.5N62.5W southwestward through the Windward Passage, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and east of this trough. Farther east, a pair of surface troughs near the Canary Islands is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas near and north of the islands. Otherwise, a 1030 mb high centered north of the area near 43N25W extends ridging over the rest of the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will drift eastward early this week. Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds and rough seas are expected east of the front, north of 29N, early this morning. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas occurring behind the front will expand southeastward early this week as high pressure builds to the north. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds may develop offshore of northern Florida on Tue as a surface trough develops to the north. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are expected over the rest of the waters by late this week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams