Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12.5W and continues southwestward to 01S26W. The ITCZ extends from 01S26W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04S to 04N between 11W and 37W.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure supports gentle to moderate breezes across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft off the western Yucatan Peninsula, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf through late Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through Sun. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in northern South America is supporting fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to locally rough seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail across the basin, except for gentle winds over the SW part of the basin and the Mona Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun through the early part of next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N60W to 29N75W. A surface trough extends from 31N46.5W to 21N56W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near these features. For the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for moderate to locally fresh winds east of the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas are impacting waters north of 20N and east of 27W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to 29N75W. Fresh winds and rough seas north of front will diminish through the morning as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail thereafter through late Fri across the region under the influence of a ridge. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through early next week.

Posted 29 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv