Special Features

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 27.6N 97.3W at 16/0000 UTC or 10 nm SSE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are currently around 6-7 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted N of 24N and W of 90W, with additional convection N of 28N and E of 90W. The system is moving toward the northeast and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast in a few hours, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast on Wed and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wed or early Thu. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wed. Weakening is anticipated on Thu after the system moves back over land. Potentially life- threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thu across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66.5W, south of 18N near southern Puerto Rico to portions of central Venezuela, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N or near the Cayman Islands, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 07N37W to 04N48W and then near the coast of northern South America from 05N50W to 06N58W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is found from 03N to 09N between 20W and 36W, and from 06N to 11N between 45W and 57W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

Away from the effects of Potential Tropical Cyclone One, ridging extends from the Atlantic to across Florida to across the central Gulf supporting moderate to fresh SE-S winds across the basin, except slightly weaker in the western Gulf S of 25N and W of 95W. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central Gulf, 4-6 ft in the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft in the central Gulf.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to 27.9N 96.5W Wed morning, 29.2N 94.6W Wed afternoon, inland to 31.0N 92.5W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon. Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf tonight through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Windward Passage, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and off the coast of Jamaica. The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trade winds and 6-8 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the far SW Caribbean, in waters immediately S of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place north of the area through this upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient across the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, extending from 1023 mb high pressure near 30N28W to 1022 mb high pressure near 27N59W and then westward across the Straits of Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 21N and W of 35W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are also occurring north of 25N and west of 65W. NE winds at fresh to strong speeds are across a region N of 20N and E of 20W, strongest winds occurring near the coast of Morocco. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere, particularly within the subtropical ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 74W will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky