Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 27W from 06N to 17N, moving west at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 11.5N between 25W and 29W.

A tropical wave is along 43.5W from 08N to 18.5N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 82.5W, extending southward from west of the Cayman Islands, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted along and to the west of the wave axis from 09N to 19N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 10N27W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 29W and 34W and from 07N to 10N between 36.5W and 42W.

Gulf Of America

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 28.5N85W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the basin. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is producing moderate E to SE winds over the SW basin. Seas basin-wide are 1 to 4 ft. A mid- and upper- level trough is leading to scattered moderate convection over the eastern Gulf, and the aforementioned trough is causing scattered moderate convection over the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle to occasionally moderate winds, and slight seas through the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, along with moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the basin.

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas persist across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support strong trades in the south-central basin, and as the gradient tightenings into the weekend, winds will increase to near gale. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend. Fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A mid- and upper-level trough along the SE U.S. Coast is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A surface trough extending from 24.5N63W to 19N67W is generating scattered moderate convection from 19N to 27N between 56W and 67W. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas to 8 ft area also occurring in this zone. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid- and upper- level trough along the SE U.S. Coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas through at least today. A westward moving surface trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into tonight, then approach the Bahamas Thu before shifting west of the area by late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. Weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters during the upcoming weekend, bringing tranquil marine conditions.

Posted 1 hour, 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv