Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to 10N between 28W and 35W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 19N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles, with axis along 62W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis at this time.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 84W south of 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over parts of Panama and Costa Rica.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure located near 25N95W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas, except for gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that area.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the basin into late next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings, which will pressure further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south- central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as noted in recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical wave just west of the Lesser Antilles will move across the basin during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed and move across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds after their passages.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1020 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda near 28N74W dominates the western Atlantic west of 60W. A surface trough extends from 31N79W to 24N79W. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with this trough. Satellite derived wind data indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds on either side of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including approaches to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere W of 60W. Farther east, a weak 1018 mb low pressure is located near 30N59W. A trough extends from the low center to near 28N61W based on scatterometer data. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of these features. The remainder of the forecast area in under the influence of broad 1028 mb high pressure centered north of the region near 35N42W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the basin, with the exception of fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas from 19N to 23N E of 22W to the coasts of Mauritania and Western Sahara. A cold front is approaching the Madeira Islands. Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will drift westward on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.

Posted 1 hour, 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era