Tropical Waves

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 20W-21W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 03.5N to 12.5N between 14W and 28W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 07N and between 31W and 39W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 05.5N to 08.5N from 50W to 58.5W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 18N, moving westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers dot the waters behind the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06.5N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N30W to 05.5N36W and then resumes from 05.5N38W to 05.5N52W. Beyond convection described above in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the eastern Gulf waters near 26N86.5W and extends a broad ridge westward to near 92W. Meanwhile, elongated low pressure persists across northeastern Mexico and extends into S Texas. The associated pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas to 5 ft across the western Gulf and off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across the central Texas coastal waters, and shifting southeastward into the coastal waters from SE Louisiana to south of Mobile Bay.

For the forecast, the trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico and into S Texas will remain inland and drift northward through midweek. New low pressure may develop late Tue across S Texas and move NE across coastal Texas through Wed. This system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where environmental conditions may support some development. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across the NW Gulf during this time. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge into the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the low pressure and the ridge will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

1023 mb high pressure is centered across the Atlantic near 26N62W and extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. A tropical wave is moving quickly into the central Caribbean along 70W, with scattered showers behind the wave south of 14N, between 67W and 70W. The pressure gradient south of the Atlantic ridge is producing a large area of fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central basin between 65W and 80W, highest off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across these waters. Fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the eastern basin, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate E to SE winds prevail across the rest of the basin W of 80W, becoming gentle between Jamaica and the Yucatan Channel, with moderate seas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough between 80W and the E coast of Nicaragua. Fair skies prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will reorganize E of 60W today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. A large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean this morning will gradually retreat to the south-central basin tonight through Tue, then persist through the end of the week. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the NW Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, extending from 1024 mb high pressure S of the Azores to 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W then westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. A low level trough extends along 80W across the coastal waters of central and NE Florida. Fresh S to SW winds to the east of the feature are forcing a cluster of scattered moderate convection N of 29N between the trough and 77W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area. Another surface trough is along about 46W to the N of 27N. Low level convergence ahead of this trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 28N to 32N between the trough and 40W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 22N and between 50W and 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found elsewhere south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will reorganize E of 60W today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. This pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N throughout the week. Fresh SW winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W this morning, then will expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling