Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 03N20W. Farther south, the ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01S35W to 01S40W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 00N to 02N between 20W and 25W, and along the equator between 30W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from Cape Sable in southwest Florida to near Cancun, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are active north of the front over the loop current near 23N85W. Mostly fair skies, gentle breezes and slight seas are evident elsewhere across the basin where weak high pressure persists.

For the forecast, the front will lift back to the N as a warm front on Sat as high pressure over the region begins to shift eastward. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf late Sun night, quickly reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean by late Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale-force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Veracruz may attain brief gusts to storm-force. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.

Caribbean Sea

A frontal boundary north of the Caribbean across the Bahamas is breaking up the subtropical ridge and supporting mostly moderate trade winds and 3-5 ft seas across the eastern and central Caribbean across the basin, except for fresh winds and 5-6 seas off the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-2 ft seas across the northwest Gulf. No significant convection is evident over the basin at this time.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central basin through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift eastward through Sat, with a brief weakening of the gradient allowing for fresh to strong trades to be confined to S of about 13N between 72W and 76W. Afterward, new high pressure will build westward across the central Atlantic next week, with the resulting pressure gradient leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the tropical Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean, including through passages.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas, then is stationary to Biscayne Bay, Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front over the Gulf Stream between South Florida and the northern Bahamas. Fresh NE to E winds and 6-9 ft seas are noted north of the front. A surface trough is along 60W from 20N to 30N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active east of this trough from 20N to 30N to 50W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 50W, with NW swell. A broad ridge is in place farther east. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7-10 ft seas are noted north of 25N and east of 40W, with moderate to fresh Ne to E winds and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build west-southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. This front will move off the U.S. Southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. These conditions will shift eastward to the north- central waters by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow the front through Tue To the S, rough seas produced by long- period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during midweek.

Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen