Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten between surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low. This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean, supporting gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela this morning. Expect gale-force winds again tonight through early Sun morning along with rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 23W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 22W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 39W, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 38W and 48W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 20N with axis near 62W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 08N to 17N between 56W and 66W.

A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 83W, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends southwestward to 09N48W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Veracruz associated with a surface trough.

For the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking ahead, by midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW and west- central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between the high pressure and lower pressures over north- central Mexico.

Caribbean Sea

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central basin. See the Tropical Waves section for more info on winds and convection.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the far western Caribbean combined with the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the region will continue to support fresh to near gale-force winds over most of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela again tonight. A second and stronger tropical wave, with axis near 62W, Invest AL92 , will continue to impact the Leeward Islands today. Even though development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage from tonight through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high SE of Bermuda. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night with near gale-force NE winds likely across the approaches and in the Windward Passage late this afternoon through early Sun morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, causing a wind shift to the NW and then N with fresh to locally strong wind speeds ahead of the front on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall on Monday before dissipating Tue.

Posted 1 hour, 23 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos