Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern tropical wave is near 28W from 14N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 24W and 33W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 47W and 59W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W from 17N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 59W and 66W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 15N16W and curves southwestward to 05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 05N52W. For information on convection, see the tropical waves section above.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails across the area, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 27N91W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are across the Gulf waters N of 24N and E of 94W. A tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico is supporting moderate E to SE winds W of 94W while a surface trough extending from the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the E Bay of Campeche supports moderate to fresh NE winds off western Yucatan. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Veracruz likely generating gusty winds and moderate to rough seas.

For the forecast, the western end of the western Atlantic ridge, near the north-central Gulf will dominate much of basin through the weekend. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed night, then mainly fresh winds there afterward.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward from east of Bermuda to the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds over the central Caribbean, with seas in the 8-12 ft range. Fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing in the Windward Passage while E winds of the same magnitude are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas to 7 ft are across the E basin. Moderate or weaker NE to E winds are elsewhere in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between a ridge N of the region and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough seas in the central basin through Wed morning, then become confined to the south-central basin Wed and Wed night before expanding northward again Thu through the weekend. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia, during the nighttime and early morning hours, except Fri in which winds will stay at near-gale force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through early Thu morning, diminishing to moderate winds and seas afterward.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 20N and supporting moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, except for fresh NE to E winds N of Hispaniola. In the tropics, the tropical waves are supporting 7 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail end of a weakening cold front will bring fresh to strong winds and some thunderstorms off northeastern Florida tonight. Otherwise, a broad ridge extending west-southwestward from east of Bermuda into southern Florida will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coast of Hispaniola each late afternoon through night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Thu before diminishing. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted 17 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos