Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands with axis near 27W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 10N between 25W and 30W.

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 47W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 05N to 09N and between 45W and 50W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. The wave axis is near 75W, south of 19N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are offshore Colombia and E Panama.

The tropical wave crossing Central America that was mentioned in the previous discussion has moved over into the Eastern Pacific. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific for information on that wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 22N17W and continues southwestward to 07N31W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 09N45W where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then continues from 07N50W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from0 5N to 15N and E of 24W, as well as from 06N to 10N between 55W and 60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen along and within 100 nm of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The Gulf is dominated by a weak ridge that supports gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas W of 90W, and light to gentle winds and slight seas over the remainder Gulf. There are two surface troughs, one extending from SE Louisiana to the waters NW of Dry Tortugas, which is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf, and a second trough in the Bay of Campeche which is generating similar activity.

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will continue to dominate the basin for the remainder of the week. A weakening frontal trough extending from SE Louisiana to the central Florida coast will gradually dissipate through Thu, with scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting along the trough. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sun night due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas this morning. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near gale- force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper- level trough sinks across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front is across the NW waters, extending from 31N71W to 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing ahead of the front between 50W and 65W and N of 29N. A pair of surface troughs in the central to west Atlantic are aiding in the development of scattered showers. The Azores High extends a ridge across the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds across the waters S of 22N are moderate to fresh with moderate seas to 6 ft. N of 22N and E of 35W, a tighter pressure gradient with lower pressures over NW Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds along with rough seas to 10 ft, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas this morning. A weakening stationary front is across the NW waters, from 31N72W through the NW Bahamas to the south-central coast of Florida. The front will gradually dissipate through Thu while moving westward toward the southeastern U.S. Coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Posted 1 hour, 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams