Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 18N and east of 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 10N between 42W and 53W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 15N to 19N between 66W and 71W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Western Sahara near 22N17W and dives southwestward to a 1010 mb low pres near 17N24W and then to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 07N48W and then from 06N50W to 06N55W.

Gulf Of America

A frontal boundary and upper-level trough over the SE United States is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, while drier weather conditions are found in the remainder of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient supports moderate to occasionally fresh westerly winds and seas of 2-3 ft north of 27N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh E to NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and cold front drop southward toward the Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh southwest winds look to develop ahead of the front over the far northern Gulf late this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The combination of a weak surface trough moving across the NE Caribbean and an upper-level trough to the west support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the Leeward Islands and nearby waters. Similar activity is noted to the southwest of the Cayman Islands and off Costa Rica.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-10 ft across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore Colombia will gradually subside today. A persistent enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades in the central basin through this weekend and much of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Tue through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean near 68W, is accompanied by showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds. The wave will quickly move westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 60W and north of 22N. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough in the NE Caribbean is helping to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the waters east of the Leeward Islands.

The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1025 mb high pressure area centered near 33N50W. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will lift N to near 28N by Sun and change little through next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado