Special Features

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning in effect for the marine zone of Agadir through 14/12Z. These conditions are due to the pressure gradient between high pressure located NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W and relatively lower pressures in NW Africa. Also, expect severe gusts, and very rough seas in long period NW swell. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. For more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10.5N15W, then continues southward to 02N20W to 01N27W. The ITCZ extends from 01N27W to NE Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 18W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge dominates the Gulf region. Under the influence of this system, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas are noted over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Similar wind speeds are observed off the Yucatan peninsula, particularly from 20N to 23N between 88W and 92W. These winds are associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are observed elsewhere, except in the far NE Gulf where light to gentle winds and slight seas are occurring. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are moving across South Florida and the Straits of Florida into the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the west-central Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf. This will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse across the SE part of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through this evening, and off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed, driven by local effects associated with a thermal trough.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front over the Atlantic located just N of Puerto Rico and a pre-frontal trough are helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean, mainly N of 15N and E of 70W. High pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean where seas are 7 to 9 ft per altimeter data. Similar wind speeds are found in the Lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and just S of the Dominican Republic. Moderate to locally fresh winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft downwind of the Windward Passage, including between Haiti and Jamaica, and 5 to 7 ft in the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Wed night as well. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off Morocco.

As previously mentioned, a stationary front is just N of Puerto Rico generating scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found near and behind the aforementioned frontal boundary, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas off NE and central Florida. High pressure follows the front and extends a ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of America. E of the front, high pressure of 1026 mb located NW of the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 13 ft in long period NW swell are noted per scatterometer and altimeter data N of 20N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, convection will continue along a stationary front that is weakening into a surface trough just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will drift west toward Hispaniola on Wed, and the SE Bahamas on Thu. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist W of the trough, with conditions gradually improving toward the end of the work-week as the trough weakens.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr