Special Features

Western And Central Atlantic Gale Warnings

A Strong Cold Front: A strong cold front moving off the southeast U.S. Coast today is going to produce widespread fresh to near gale-force SW to NW winds off eastern Florida and over the Bahamas. By this evening, these winds near 28N76W will reach gale-force, along with 9 to 11 ft seas. As the cold front pushes farther eastward Fri and Fri night, gale-force winds will spread into the central Atlantic, north of 27N between 60W and 70W. Peak seas will also build to between 12 and 15 ft. This area of gale-force winds and very rough seas will shift farther eastward on Sat, and then northeastward to north of 31N on Sat night.

A Deepening Low Pressure: A low pressure system is expected to enter the Atlantic off the North Carolina coast on Fri night, then rapidly deepen as it tracks eastward into the western Atlantic. It will produce a large area of westerly gale- force winds north of 27N between 62W and 72W. Seas will peak at 12 to 18 ft. These winds and seas are going to move eastward, to north of 26N between 54W and 70W on Sun with seas build higher to between 22 and 30 ft. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic, conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas at 12 to 16 ft in large NW swell, north of 27N and east of 45W will continue to slide eastward through tonight, and shift east of 35W by early Fri morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on all three events above.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea, then curves southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues west- southwestward from 03N19W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near both features from 01S to 07N between 10W and 33W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front curves southwestward from Clearwater Beach, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to near gale-force N to NNE winds and rough seas to 11 ft follow this front. Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are ahead of the front in the far SE portion of the basin and moderate to fresh N to NW winds are across the E Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf waters through this afternoon. The front will continue to bring fresh to near gale-force N wind and rough seas across much of the Gulf through early this evening when conditions are forecast to improve from west to east as high pressure builds across the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh NW winds will follow another weaker cold front that will move across the eastern Gulf Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front and will remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin through Mon.

Caribbean Sea

A surfarce trough extends from south-central Cuba to offshore Nicaragua and Honduras near 15N81W. Scattered showers and tstms are noted near this feature, along with strong NW winds noted in a recent satellite scatterometer pass to the west of the trough. Otherwise, a tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic subropical ridge and the low pressure over NW Colombia continues to support a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean where seas are up to 9 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front currently moving across the Gulf of America, will reach the northwest Caribbean early this afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow this front, forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight and from Haiti to Panama Fri morning where it will start to weaken. Fresh to strong N winds with rough seas in the SW Caribbean associated with the front will persist through Sat, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on two Gale Warnings and Significant Swell.

A cold front has emerged off northeast Florida this morning, bringing fresh to strong W to NW winds north of the Bahamas and mainly west of 75W. In the far eastern portion of the basin, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 25N28W to 22N48W where it stalls and then continues SE to the northern Leeward Islands. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge centered by a 1025 mb high near 31N45W, supporting mainly moderate eastery winds across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front moving off northeast Florida this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Windward Passage by early Fri, from 25N55W to eastern Hispaniola by early Sat, before stalling and weakening from 22N55W to the Leeward Islands by early Sun. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will folow the front across the waters north of 28N Fri through Sun. A weak reinforcing front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sat, and from 31N55W to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall and dissipate along 22N through early next week. Wave heights will gradually subside from west to east early next week.

Posted 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mora