Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has emerged off Africa and now has an axis along 19W from 10N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noticed from 12N to 15N E of 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 47W, from 08N to 22W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of this wave from 08N to 12N between 37W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 64W, from the Virgin Islands into Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is behind this wave from 12N to 19N between 54W and 64W, and is impacting much of the waters near the Lesser Antilles.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W, moving W at around 15 kt. No convection is currently associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues to 12N25W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 10N38W to 08N44W and from 07N49W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 14N between 20W and 27W and 08N to 12N between 29W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 49W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W. A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered moderate convection over the SW basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds dominate much of the basin, with moderate SE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche, E of the surface through. Seas are 2 to 4 ft where these moderate winds are ongoing, otherwise generally 2 ft or less basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will bring gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin into mid- week.

Caribbean Sea

Convection in the NW Caribbean has dissipated overnight. See the above Tropical Waves sections for details on convection associated with a tropical wave in the far eastern basin.

The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and the western Atlantic ridge extending into the eastern Gulf of America is forcing fresh to locally strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean, generally S of 15N, where seas are 6 to 8 ft between 72W and 80W. Across the eastern basin, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds prevail, with moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft. Across the NW Caribbean, NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. The exception there is locally fresh E wind across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are moderate ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean today, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift east tonight, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds north of the area.

Atlantic Ocean

A tight pressure gradient between low pressure over the Saharan Desert and the 1029 mb Azores high has relaxed enough such that gale conditions have ended in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and near the Moroccan coast. As both the low and high weaken today, strong NE winds will gradually decrease to moderate to fresh into tonight. These higher winds have generated rough seas that impact waters from the Canary Islands S to 18N and W to about 35W. These seas will slowly decay below 8 ft through the day.

Convection E of Florida and N of and E of the Bahamas has generally dissipated overnight, but scattered moderate convection prevails within about 60 nm either side of a surface trough axis that extends from 31N45W to 27N52W. The pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ and monsoon trough is producing moderate to locally fresh trades along with moderate seas across much of the Atlantic S of 26W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Today, then stall. SW winds will increase and seas will build N of 25N through the middle of the week between this front and the Atlantic ridge to the east.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik