Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 21.5W from 04N to 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 17N and E of 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 40W and 49W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66.5W from Puerto Rico southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 15N to 18N between 66W and 70W.

The northern portion of a western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and dives southward to a 1010 mb low pres near 16N24W and then continues southwestward to 07N50W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this time. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 48W and 53W.

Gulf Of America

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of the area is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, mainly along the coast, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh E to NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into next week as an upper-level trough and cold front at the surface drop southward toward the Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh southwest winds look to develop ahead of the front over the far northern Gulf late this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba. A divergent pattern aloft supports scattered moderate convection across the waters near the Windward Passage as well as offshore of SW Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore Colombia will gradually subside today. A persistent enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades in the central basin through this weekend and much of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period. A tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean near 67W, is accompanied by showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds. The wave will quickly move westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 27N and west of 74W. Fresh SW winds are evident in this area, with 5-7 ft seas. East of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection along 60W from 15N to 18N. Another surface trough in the central Atlantic is interacting with a divergent pattern aloft to produce widely scattered moderate convection across a large region from 20N to 29N between 52W and 72W. Elsewhere, the remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1025 mb high pressure area centered near 33N50W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will lift N to near 28N by Sun and change little through next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 70W through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams