Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W-34W, south of 22N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderated isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 13N and between 27W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 13.5N and between 40W and 49W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted from 10N to 13N between 63W and 68W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Associated convection is limited over Central America, while area Caribbean waters are rain free.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11.5N26W and to 10.5N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N48W to 11N61W. Outside of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 16N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 07.5N to 13.5N between 27W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

A deep layered upper level low over N Florida extends into the far NW Caribbean and is supporting scattered clusters of moderate to strong convection across the Florida Panhandle to extreme southern Mississippi and the nearshore waters, as well as across interior and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dots the waters offshore of SE Louisiana. At the surface, 1019 mb high pressure centered near 25N88W dominates the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic winds, strongest offshore of the Florida Panhandle and the SW Gulf. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early next week. This weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A surface trough over the Yucatan will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

See Tropical Waves section above for information on limited convection across the basin.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered SW of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 65W and 78W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 8 ft in the south-central portion, and slight in the NW. Saharan Air across most of the basin is aiding in limiting convection.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north- central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week, and may increase in coverage over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.

Atlantic Ocean

See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep tropics.

A stationary frontal trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N50W and continues southwestward to 27N68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 26N between 46W and 57W, while scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough between 57W and 68W. The rest of the basin remains under the influence of subtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas, except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 11N and 21N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE wind prevail across the northeastern waters from the Canary Islands southward to 19N and E of 26W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist this evening between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda, and along a trough extending from 29N55W to 27N70W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N going into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling