Special Features

GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A cold front will move off Texas early Sat morning, then race southward through the western Gulf. North wind will quickly build to gale force before midday Sat offshore Tampico, Mexico, with gale conditions spreading to offshore Veracruz, Mexico, by Sat evening. Gales are forecast to end Sat night offshore Tampico, but will continue offshore Veracruz and through the western Bay of Campeche Sun and Sun night. Very rough seas will quickly build with the gales, with seas likely reaching near 20 ft offshore Veracruz Sat night into Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 08N12W, then runs southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 04N20W to 04N40W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 26W.

Gulf Of America

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for western portions of the basin starting Saturday.

A ridge, associated with a 1021 mb high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas, dominates the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system over Texas is supporting fresh to locally strong S winds over the western basin and gentle to moderate SE winds in the eastern basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the western basin and 2 to 4 ft in the eastern basin, except less than 2 ft within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight while expanding eastward over much of the eastern Gulf. These winds will precede the next cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas late Fri night. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale speed near Tampico Sat morning, and in Veracruz adjacent waters late Sat through Mon morning.The front will exit the basin Mon morning, and conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to locally strong trades encompass the central basin, including the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale force winds are offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in these area. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate, except for 2 to 4 ft seas in the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage Fri night and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for fresh NE to E winds in the lee side of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras beginning tonight and continuing into Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas, is supporting a broad area of light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas N fo 20N and W of 40W. There is a zone of moderate to locally fresh trades S of 22N thats impacting waters N of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida Straits, however. A surface trough extends northward from the Leeward Islands along 61N to 25N, causing a cluster of moderate convection from 22N to 25N between 60W and 63W. A cold front extends southward to 31N40W to 27N48W. To the E of this front, fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail and continue to the African coast, along with rough seas. For the deep tropics between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in the wake of a cold front with tail just N of the region will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage from this evening through Sun. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning and dissipate Mon night into Tue.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik