Tropical Waves

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous scattered to isolated strong convection is occurring over NW Colombia and Panama along the southern portion of the wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to the coast of Guyana near 08N60W. A few showers are found from 07N to 14N and east of 31W. Similar convection is present from 06N to 14N and between 49W and the Lesser Antilles.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft supports a few showers over the north-central and NE Gulf waters and while similar convection is noted off Veracruz. A 1022 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf sustains mainly fresh easterly winds south of 24N and between 87W and 95W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 32 kt off NW Colombia. Seas of 7-10 ft are occurring in the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean into mid-week. East winds will pulse strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and between 71W and 75W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado