Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N55W to beyond the Dominican Republic. Latest scatterometer satellite data reveal gale-force SW winds just ahead of the front near 28N55W. This verifies the forecast for near- gale to gale-force winds along with 12 to 19 ft seas, north of 25N and west of 43W and 63W in the cold. These winds and seas should steadily shift northeastward and to beyond 31N on Saturday morning.

Farther west, a 1005 mb low is off the Carolinas coast near 34N74W this evening. This system is expected to rapidly intensity while tracking east-northeastward across the western and central Atlantic. It will introduce gales to strong-gale westerly winds and seas to near 30 ft, north of 27N and east of 27W by Saturday. Afterward, both winds and seas will gradually subside from west to east on Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea/Sierra Leone and extends southwestward to 05N17W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward to 00N32W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A 1024 mb high at the southwestern Gulf continues to dominate the entire Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen across the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, post-frontal fresh to strong W to NW winds will continue over the northeastern Gulf through Sat morning. High pressure centered north of the region will dominate through at the middle of next week, setting up quiescent conditions across area waters once the aforementioned winds diminish this weekend..

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends southwestward from the Dominican Republic to near the coastal border of Costa Rica and Honduras. Patchy showers are found near and up to 50 nm along either side of the cold front. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen behind the front at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Carribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall Sat then dissipate by Sun. Strong N winds and rough seas will prevail over the southwestern basin behind through Sat. After the front dissipates, fresh to strong NE trades will develop offshore Colombia and Hispaniola Sun night, then increase and expand through the central basin into the middle of next week as high pressure builds N of the area. Rough seas will develop in this area of strong winds winds. Additionally, large N to NW swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters beginning on Mo.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning and on areas of significant swell.

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N55W to beyond the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 150 nm east of this property. Farther south, a surface trough is triggering widely scattered moderate convection. Refer the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ.

Outside of the gale warning areas, fresh to strong SW to NW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are noted north of 23N and west of 45W. To the east, north of 20N between 35W and 45W, moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present. For the waters near and east of the Bahamas, moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft is found. Farther south from 12N to 20N and west of 35W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, please read the details in the Special Feature section.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan