Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda today. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front by late morning, south and southeast of Bermuda to near 29N, and between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve into Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 25W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near 09N70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 78W and 80W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 05N30W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 09N between 20W and 22W, and from 05N to 07N between 48W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A deep-layered upper level trough from the north-central to the southwestern Gulf continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the south-central basin. At the surface, a surface trough extends from offshore of southern Louisiana to 25N96W, and off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between these features and the Atlantic ridge extending into the southeast Gulf is supporting mostly gentle to moderate SE to S flow and 2-4 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the central Gulf through the early part of the week.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic but then is displaced slightly southward to north of Hispaniola and Cuba. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade winds off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, where seas are likely up to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Honduras, in the far western Gulf of Honduras near Puerto Barrios, and north of central Panama where a tropical wave is interacting with the Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

A warm front extends from Bermuda to 1010 mb low pressure near 31N70W. A trough extends from the low to Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 90 nm east of these features. The Atlantic ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near the Azores to Hispaniola. The gradient between the ridge and the low pressure/warm front is supporting strong SW winds and seas to 7 ft within 300 nm to the southeast of the low pressure, with fresh SW winds and 5-8 ft seas covering north of 25N between 55W and 75W. Elsewhere fresh to strong NE to E winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail south of the ridge axis across the tropical Atlantic west of 40W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas are noted east of 40W north of 10N, with gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas south of 10N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft are noted along the ridge axis. Saharan dust covers the area north of 10N and east of 60W, reaching as far west as the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to minimal gale-force winds and rough seas accompany 1010 mb low pressure moving eastward along 30N toward Bermuda through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will shift southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas today. The front will lift north tonight ahead of another low pressure system moving South Carolina Mon, which will dissipate as it moves southeast of Bermuda through mid week. Looking ahead, a third low pressure area will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed and Thu.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen