Special Features

Atlantic Storm Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from the low pressure to 31N67W to east Cuba. To the E, another cold front is analyzed from 31N62W to 20N72W. Storm force NW winds are expected W of the first front, mainly N of 28N and E of 74W, while gale force NW winds prevail N of 25N between and W of 66W. Another area of gale force SW winds is E of the fronts mainly N of 29N between 57W-62W. Very rough to high seas will prevail in these areas, expected to peak to 29 ft tonight along 30N. Rough seas prevail across most of the basin N of 22N. The storm force winds will diminish tonight by 02/00Z, while the gale force winds will follow the fronts and diminish by 02/12Z. Seas across the forecast domain will slowly subside starting at midweek as high pressure in the wake of the fronts shift eastward near 29N. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of the storm and gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of strong to near gale force winds and associated rough seas. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W then continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building across the area and the cold front that is now well southeast of the Gulf is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds prevail W of 90W. Rough to very rough seas prevail across the basin, with highest values E of 89W.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish from NW to SE across the Gulf through tonight as the high pressure begins to shift eastward across the northern Gulf. Another cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Wed, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf by Wed afternoon, and from southwest Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Thu afternoon, then move southeast of the Gulf by early Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind this next frontal system.

Caribbean Sea

A strong arctic cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 15N84W and to along the southern coast of Honduras. To the E, another front is analyzed from 20N73W to 12N83W. Strong to near gale- force NW winds and rough seas are found behind these boundaries. A surface trough extends from eastern eastern Hispaniola to north Colombia. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are evident between the trough mainly S of 13N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean E of the trough.

For the forecast, the two cold fronts will merge late this afternoon, and then overtake the trough as it reaches from Puerto Rico to northwestern Colombia by this evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwestern Venezuela Mon and Mon night. Strong to near-gale force north winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail roughly west of a line from the Virgin Islands to northeastern Colombia to central Cuba along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas will likely diminish in coverage on Wed and further on Thu as another cold front approaches the northwestern Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on ongoing Storm and Gale Warnings for sections of the western Atlantic.

Outside of the Storm/Gale Warnings areas, a cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N29W and continues southwestward to 26N40W then becomes stationary to 27N50W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front to 30W and north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high center located near 28N28W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas are found south of a line from Morocco to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh southeast winds and rough seas are also evident from 20N and 25N and between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, please see the Special Features section above.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era