This has been a year of firsts. The Catholic Church elected its first pope born in the U.S. Donald Trump became the first American president in the modern era to return to office after losing re-election. And Americans spent more money on Black Friday, yet brought home fewer items.
Wait, what drove that shift?
Not as groundbreaking as those first two milestones, but economics, rising prices, and tariff-fueled inflation have put the U.S. in a strange place for Christmas 2025.
Despite holiday sales pushing into record territory, Americans are coming to terms with the fact that the value of a dollar in 2025 is not the same as the value of that same dollar in 2024. Here’s what the data shows: according to software company Salesforce, on Black Friday, order volume was down 1%, but higher prices pushed overall spending 5% above last year.
Cyber Monday, however, might have been the knight in shining armor to help consumers and retailers. Adobe Digital Insights recently reported shoppers spent about $14.25 billion, up 7.1% from last year, making Cyber Monday 2025 the biggest online shopping day of all time (as it has been every year since 2015). Adobe adds that when totaling up the five-day holiday shopping sprint, online U.S. sales were in the neighborhood of $44.2 billion (up 7.7% from 2024).
But all that spending now sets up the next phase of the season: a multi-billion‑dollar returns hangover that will hit customer service counters and warehouse docks well into January.
The National Retail Federation says consumers are expected to return close to $850 billion worth of merchandise in 2025, down from $890 billion in 2024. That $850 billion translates to almost 16% of retailers’ total annual sales – online sales are even higher with a 19.3% return rate. Holiday-driven returns alone will total well into the hundreds of billions of dollars, with merchandise “boomeranging” back to stores and online fulfillment centers.
The ease of dropping off a purchase and sending it back, part of a broader “returns economy,” is now treated as a major cost line rather than a side effect of doing business. Companies are trying to thread a needle: keep shoppers happy with low prices and flexible holiday policies while tightening rules enough to control fraud, shipping costs, and mountains of unsellable goods.
For 2025, here are the holiday return dates for some of the country’s biggest retailers:
- Amazon – Purchases from Nov. 1 – Dec. 31 are returnable until Jan. 31, 2026 (Apple products have a shorter window that ends Jan. 15, 2026).
- Best Buy – Purchases from Oct. 31 – Dec. 31 are returnable until Jan. 15, 2026 (excluding third-party contracts, like a smartphone).
- Costco – No special holiday extension; follows standard policy (generous/unlimited for most items, 90 days for electronics).
- Home Depot – Most purchases have a 90-day return window, but some are as short as 48 hours, seven days, or 30 days (check the website for details). Most purchases for the holiday season are returnable until Jan. 31, 2026.
- Lowe’s – Most purchases have a 90-day window; holiday items (i.e., decorations) must be returned by the holiday or within the 90-day standard window.
- Macy’s – Most purchases from Oct. 6 – Dec. 31 are returnable until Jan. 31, 2026.
- Sam’s Club – Most purchases fall into three categories: 14-day returns, 30-day returns, and 90-day returns. Check the website for details.
- Target – Most purchases from Nov. 1 – Dec. 31 are returnable until Jan. 31, 2026. Electronics’ 30-day return window begins on Dec. 26.
- Walmart – Items bought from Oct. 1 – Dec. 31 are returnable until Jan. 31, 2026.
But generous windows aside, here’s the real question: what happens to all that stuff? For retailers, those unwanted gifts and impulse buys have quietly become an industry of their own.
Sellers and delivery companies are gearing up behind the scenes for what has become the annual “return rush,” hiring extra staff, carving out warehouse space, and leaning on new data tools to sort, resell, or recycle the tidal wave of goods that didn’t quite make the “that’s-exactly-what-I-wanted” list. A recent blog from ConquerOrNetwork.com said it best: “Reverse logistics involves inspection, sorting, repackaging, quality checks, documentation, transportation, restocking, and resale or disposal decisions.”
So what actually happens after you drop a return at the counter or hand it to a delivery driver? Many retailers and third‑party firms have invested heavily into reverse logistics and sort items into these very broad buckets:
- Restock and Resell: These items are generally made up of new, unopened goods in good to excellent condition which are the easiest to put back on the shelf. Sometimes you’ll get that “Like New” label on a returned item with a slight or sometimes substantial discount. For retailers, think of items like toys, electronics, and small appliances.
- Outlet Stores and Discount Channels: It’s not so much that these items might not be new, it’s just that a retailer may not have a desire to sell the item again for a second time. Many times, these items are marked down and get shipped off for two main reasons: clear space at a warehouse and recoup part of their value.
- Bulk Lots and Auctions: The buying public is just catching on to the concept of pallets of shrink-wrapped mystery bundles containing an unpredictable mix of items. A growing share of returns now flow into these dedicated secondary markets.
- Donations: Apparel and seasonal goods that can’t be sold quickly enough may be donated to charities or liquidators, both for goodwill and limited tax benefits.
- Recycle or Landfill: Not all returns, however, get a second life. Items that are damaged, heavily used, or too expensive to process often end up recycled for parts or materials when possible, or ultimately sent to landfills if there’s no viable recovery path. That waste stream is one reason environmental groups and logistics experts warn that “free” and easy returns carry a hidden ecological costs alongside the financial hit to retailers.
Our “year of firsts” isn’t quite done yet. If forecasts hold, 2025 won’t just break holiday-sales records, it may redefine the future of the annual returns game.