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Here’s who has the lead for Florida governor right now

New poll shows most candidates struggle to be recognized

Florida governor silhouette (Anthony Talcott, Copyright 2026 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

ORLANDO, Fla. – The race for Florida’s next governor is underway, and a new report this month reveals who may be closest to getting the job.

The report, issued by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, takes a look at the gubernatorial candidates who are running right now.

They include the following:


MOST POPULAR REPUBLICAN

While the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries aren’t until Aug. 18, this latest poll shows how voters feel about the candidates at this point in time.

On the Republican side, over 50% of respondents said they had a favorable impression of Donalds, who was given the support of President Donald Trump early last year.

[BELOW: News 6 speaks with gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds]

That puts Donalds far ahead of the competition, as Jay Collins only had a 11% favorable rating among respondents, while Renner (9%) and Fishback (5%) lagged even farther behind.

“It should be noted that Donalds is the only candidate in either race whose name is recognized by more than half of his party’s voters,” the report reads. “That name recognition advantage is an important factor behind his frontrunner status.”

[BELOW: Paul Renner touts ties to DeSantis in governor bid but lacks endorsement]

As for whom voters said they want to vote for if the Republican primary were held now, the poll lists the results as follows:

CandidatePercentage of Voters
Byron Donalds37%
Jay Collins7%
Paul Renner4%
James Fishback3%
Undecided49%

MOST POPULAR DEMOCRAT

With only two candidates to choose from, this competition may seem a bit simpler, though Mason-Dixon’s poll shows that it’s still fairly close.

David Jolly has a slight lead over Demings, with a 19% favorable rating and over 20% of respondents saying they would vote for him in the primary if it were held today.

[BELOW: News 6 speaks with gubernatorial candidate David Jolly]

However, both Jolly and Demings still struggle with the same issue that many of the Republican candidates did: a lack of identifiability.

Around 55% of respondents didn’t recognize Jolly, and that figure was even worse (60%) for Demings.

[BELOW: Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings declares run for Florida governor]

As for whom voters said they want to vote for if the Democratic primary were held now, the poll lists the results as follows:

CandidatePercentage of Voters
David Jolly23%
Jerry Demings19%
Undecided58%

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM

While Donalds is currently the most-recognized candidate, there are still roughly seven months before the primaries are held, which gives his competitors plenty of time to make a bigger impression on constituents.

Right now, though, the poll shows how many respondents actually recognized each of the candidates:

CandidateRecognized (Favorable)Recognized (Unfavorable)Recognized (Neutral)Didn’t Recognize
Byron Donalds52%3%17%28%
Jay Collins11%1%15%73%
Paul Renner9%1%16%74%
James Fishback5%4%10%81%
David Jolly19%4%22%55%
Jerry Demings15%2%23%60%

Voters in August will get the chance to choose their preferred candidate during the primary elections in August.

After that, the general election — slated for Nov. 3 — will ultimately determine who will become Florida’s next governor starting in 2027.

Mason-Dixon’s report says it included 400 registered Democratic voters and 400 registered Republican voters, all of whom were interviewed live by telephone. The margin of error is no more than 5% for each sample. You can find the full report below:


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