ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida joined the online sports betting space in December 2023 when the Hard Rock Bet app went live. Since then, it’s been the lone platform for people in the Sunshine State to legally bet on sports. But a similar option is now available for fans as well.
In December 2025, DraftKings announced the rollout of DraftKings Predictions, a predictions market platform, across 38 states, including Florida.
Initially, the platform only offered economic predictions. For example, you could put your money on what you think the U.S. GDP will be for the fourth quarter of 2025, the December 2025 unemployment rate, among other options. But on Jan. 1, 2026, DraftKings announced the platform is also carrying sports predictions.
Now, sports predictions platforms themselves aren’t new in Florida.
The online stock trading platform Robinhood rolled out their own predictions platform in fall 2025, in a partnership with the predictions market Kalshi. Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange letting people place wagers on predictions (referred to as “event contracts”) ranging from political and economic events, to sports and culture.
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In 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission gave regulatory approval to both Kalshi and their largest competitor, Polymarket, reversing course after the Biden administration banned Polymarket in the U.S. in 2022. It’s important to note President Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has served on the Kalshi advisory board since January 2025, and he’s on Polymarket’s advisory board too. His firm invested in Polymarket in August as well.
But DraftKings has something Kalshi and Polymarket don’t in the sports betting space: cache.
DraftKings holds about 34% of sports betting market space, second only to FanDuel (44%). FanDuel’s prediction market, FanDuel Predicts, is only live in five states. DraftKings is also an official sports betting partner of the NFL, NBA, NHL, PGA Tour, WNBA and UFC.
However, because of the gaming compact signed between the state and Seminole Tribe in 2021, the DraftKings Sportsbook, which brought in $2.476 billion in the first nine months of 2025, cannot operate in Florida.
But users will notice similarities between DraftKings’ Predictions and the Hard Rock Bet app. Let’s compare offerings on both platforms for the week 18 Jaguars-Titans game:
DraftKings’ Predictions
Hard Rock Bet app
You’ll notice both platforms offer a spread (amount of points a team needs to win by in order for a wager to win) and a moneyline/to win option (simply which team will win). While the Hard Rock Bet app offers significantly more options (touchdown scorers, wagers on statistics, etc.), DraftKings has already announced “additional categories such as entertainment and culture expected as the offering expands.”
So, if DraftKings isn’t allowed to operate their sportsbook in Florida, why are they allowed to offer the same “bets” as the Hard Rock Bet app?
Well, while the offerings look the same, how they function behind-the-scenes, and in turn how they’re regulated, are different.
Sportsbooks, whether in person or online, feature offerings and odds for bettors to place wages on. If the bet wins, the sportsbook pays the bettor out. If the bet loses, the sportsbook keeps the money from the wager.
But predictions markets work differently. Users purchase “event contracts” of a side of an offering, and other users purchase shares of the other side. Prices for each contract move based on what people are willing to pay for them (supply and demand), which signals the outcome of an event more users believe will happen.
All the money from the contracts are pooled together, and is then distributed after the result is finalized but if the price for a contract moves, users can sell their event contracts for a profit, similar to a stock.
In short, sportsbooks pit bettor against “the house” (typically a casino), whereas in predictions markets, users put their money up against other users. And because predictions markets feature trading between users (think the stock market), it’s regulated by the federal government, in the form of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that was mentioned earlier. Sportsbooks, on the other hand, are regulated on the state level.
So, where do we go from here?
News 6 has reached out to the governor’s office and Hard Rock Bet to see how these predictions markets fall into the gaming compact signed in 2021.
That compact says ”Sports Betting" means “wagering on any past or future professional sport or athletic event, competition or contest, any Olympic or international sports competition event, any collegiate sport or athletic event (but not including proposition bets on such collegiate sport or event), or any motor vehicle race, or any portion of any of the foregoing, including but not limited to the individual performance statistics of an athlete or other individual participant in any event or combination of events, or any other ‘inplay’ wagering with respect to any such sporting event, competition or contest, except “Sports Betting” does not include Fantasy Sports Contests, pari-mutuel wagering, or betting on any form of poker or other card game.“ The word “prediction” is not mentioned once in the entire compact.
Hard Rock Bet declined to comment. As of this reporting, we have not yet heard back from the governor’s office.
The other piece of the puzzle: revenue. The state gets a piece of the money the Seminole Tribe takes in from the Hard Rock Bet app. The compact ties $750 million from gambling revenue to environmental causes across the state. Companies with prediction markers make money via commissions and transaction fees, meaning their revenue isn’t tied directly to the outcome of an event.
Since the rollout of online sports betting in Florida, problem gambling resources have seen a sharp increase in calls for help.
If you or someone you know needs help with a gambling addiction, please reach out to the Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling. They can be reached at 888-ADMIT-IT or 888-236-4848.
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