ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida’s population boom has defined the state for years, but new data suggests another trend is emerging: The state isn’t just growing — it’s aging.
In some places, the shift is dramatic. In Sumter County, the median age was 30 in 1970. Today, it’s 68.
Researchers who study Florida’s population trends say the change could push the state toward what they describe as a “demographic cliff,” a point where the number of deaths significantly outpaces births and the working-age population shrinks.
According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, the state shifted from natural population growth before the pandemic to several consecutive years with more deaths than births.
| Year | Births | Deaths | Natural Change (Births-Deaths) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 221,542 | 205,426 | +16,116 |
| 2019 | 220,002 | 207,002 | +13,000 |
| 2020 | 209,671 | 239,685 | -30,014 |
| 2021 | 216,260 | 261,369 | -45,109 |
| 2022 | 224,433 | 239,119 | -14,686 |
| 2023 | 221,410 | 228,940 | -7,530 |
| 2024* | 224,242 | 228,401 | -4,159 |
| 2025* | ~225,000 | ~230,000 | ≈-5000 |
*2024–2025 figures are provisional estimates based on current reporting trends and may be revised by the CDC.
The unusually high death total in 2020 was influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly increased mortality nationwide that year. The gap widened further in 2021, before scaling down in recent years, but Florida continues to have a natural decrease in population.
By 2035, Florida could see about 50,000 more deaths each year than births, according to the Florida Office of Economic Development and Research (EDR)
The shift is already having real-world effects.
UF Health Leesburg recently shuttered its maternity services, citing “fewer deliveries” among the factors behind the decision.
School districts are also beginning to feel the impact.
“Nobody wants to close a school ever,” said Brevard School Board Chair Matt Susin.
However, Cape View Elementary in Brevard County is closing after enrollment dropped below 50% capacity.
Carl Arnold has lived in Brevard County for 72 years, and he says the change reflects the makeup of their communities.
“60, 70, 80-year-olds. We don’t have 6-year-old kids,” Arnold said.
Orange County Public Schools is also responding to declining enrollment, closing seven schools due to low student numbers, with the possibility of more closures ahead. Some of that decline in enrollment is linked to school choice programs, but researchers say a broader demographic shift may also be contributing.
“We do have a scarcity of workers,” said Richard Doty of the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Doty said state leaders are aware of the long-term demographic pressures facing Florida.
“They’re aware of the demographic cliff we are approaching. Not to mention things like sea level rise and climate change, that are going to present huge financial problems and societal problems that we’re going to have to figure out ways to address,” Doty said.
A demographic cliff occurs when an aging population leads to fewer working-age adults supporting a growing number of retirees.
“We need we need to figure out where to where to find more younger workers,” Doty said.
That challenge has fueled debate among Florida lawmakers over how to fill gaps in the workforce.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has questioned whether teenagers could help meet labor demand.
“What’s wrong with expecting, like, our young people to be working part time? Why do we say we need to import foreigners, even import them illegally? When, you know, teenagers used to work at these resorts,” DeSantis said.
In 2024, Florida lawmakers passed a bill modifying the state’s child labor laws. The measure removed certain hour restrictions for 16- and 17-year-olds and allowed parents, guardians or school officials to waive limits that previously capped teens at 30 work hours during a school week. The law also maintains requirements such as meal breaks after four hours of continuous work and took effect July 1, 2024.
Supporters argued more teens want jobs and fewer are working compared with past generations.
“In 1938, 68% of 16- and 17-year-olds worked. Today, that number dropped to 38%. Nearly 1 million searches have been performed for quote, ‘how can I get a job as a teen?’ They want to work,” said Rep. Linda Chaney during debate in 2024.
Others raised concerns about relying on minors to address workforce shortages.
“The immigrant workforce has shrunk in states like Florida. So instead of addressing that challenge, a solution is just to make kids do it. It’s really gross, it’s un-American,” said Rep. Anna Eskamani regarding that bill.
In 2025, Sen. Jay Collins proposed Senate Bill 918, which would have removed several remaining restrictions on when 16- and 17-year-olds could work during the school week. The measure also proposed eliminating the state’s ability to grant certain waivers related to those restrictions and was scheduled to take effect July 1, 2025, if approved.
“This is a parental rights issue. And frankly, we’re not talking “The Jungle” by Upton Sinclair. We’re talking about them working at Publix, at Piggly Wiggly,” Collins said.
That bill did not pass. Senator Carlos Guillermo Smith argued it was not necessary.
“Minors already are eligible to work part time. They’re already working these jobs.”
Doty said immigration remains one of the most difficult factors to predict when it comes to Florida’s future population and workforce.
Policy changes at the federal level can dramatically affect migration patterns from one administration to the next, he said.
For now, no additional child labor bills have been proposed during the current legislative session in Tallahassee. However, House Bill 987 proposed creating a new Florida Department of Labor to oversee worker rights, enforcement, and labor-market programs. That bill has yet to be voted on in a committee.