ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s time for March Madness, and people across the country are submitting brackets and putting money on the line in the NCAA tournament. But just how well can AI predict the outcomes of the most unpredictable event in sports?
That’s what I was wondering. I’ve been filling out brackets as long as I can remember in my 27-and-a-half trips around the sun, so I decided to put ChatGPT to the test against my bracket this year.
But if you’re hoping to just have AI print you out a full bracket, it’s not that simple. It took me multiple tries to get the chatbot to pick every game of the tournament in one sitting. And let’s just say there were a few issues.
Here’s how ChatGPT did:
AI picked every matchup of the East region, with Duke advancing to the Final Four.
In the West region, five teams (2, 6, 10, 11, 15 seeds) were incorrect, including two that didn’t make the tournament. It had Houston (which is in the South region) advancing to the Final Four.
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In the Midwest region, ChatGPT had Michigan advancing to the Final Four, but had the wrong teams for the 2, 6, 11, and 16 seeds. Among the incorrect schools, Bethune-Cookman, which is one of 40 NCAA Division I men’s basketball programs to never make the tournament. It also had winners of two first-round games advancing to the Sweet 16 after playing teams they wouldn’t play. Michigan is coming out of this region, according to ChatGPT.
And the South region was all messed up - none of the 16 teams were right. It had UConn (the 2 seed in the East) advancing to the Final Four.
ChatGPT picked UConn to beat Duke in the Final Four, despite picking Duke to beat UConn in the Elite Eight. It then had UConn taking down Michigan, who beat Houston (also coming out of the wrong region).
To get a more accurate prediction of the actual field, I asked ChatGPT to predict the winners of each game, one by one, (yes it took a while). If you’re a fan of upsets, AI may not be for you. ChatGPT predicted just three lower seeds (two 9 seeds, 1 10 seed) winning their opening game, and just one lower seed advancing to the Sweet 16. The program picked the top seeds in every region to advance to the Final Four, with Duke beating Arizona in the National Championship.
And in case you’re wondering, in another game-by-game prediction by ChatGPT, the software flipped its pick on 6 games, so it may all depend on when you ask for a prediction.
Anyway, the competition is underway. Man vs machine. May the best bracket win.