🌀Homegrown Tropical Development

One thing we thought would be a bigger-than-normal player during the 2025 hurricane season was homegrown storms. Homegrown storms are storms born of non-tropical origins, like a cold front, and then eventually take on tropical characteristics.

We thought this because the Main Development Region of the tropics, the area of water between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, was much cooler than last year, but the water close to home was much warmer than normal.

You’ll notice the red, warmer-than-normal temperatures have worked their way back to the MDR, which is something we will have to watch as we get into the meat and potatoes of this hurricane season come August.

The extra warmth close to home helps storms take on tropical characteristics prior to heading back inland.

We saw that with Chantal and it’s looking more likely we could see that with newly-designated Invest 93L; that disturbance off the Florida coast.

Now that it is an invest, an area of investigation, we’ll get specialized hurricane models to give us a better idea of what may happen with this disturbance.

The question now is will it develop into a tropical depression or tropical depression before Florida. It is certainly much more organized than most model guidance suggested over the past couple of days.

The German Icon model has been the most bullish and does have a weak tropical system coming ashore to Florida.

We’ll have to see how the thunderstorms over land have impeded its organization. That may be the main factor as to whether we get development prior to Florida or not.

For Florida impacts, it doesn’t matter much. The disturbance will be on land by tomorrow afternoon, ending further development. It will essentially just be a technicality whether it becomes one or not. Might just bump up the gustiness of the wind a bit.

Heavy rain will be the main threat for Florida.

Then attention turns to how much time it spends over water. If the storm goes west, say toward Texas, it will have more time to ramp up. If it lifts into Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama, it should stay on the weaker side. Regardless, as we saw with Chantal, a weaker storm with tons of tropical moisture can be very impactful.

The Icon has a tropical storm or low-end hurricane in the Gulf by Thursday.

The Icon did very well last season, particularly with Beryl, so it’s interesting how it will play out with this one.

Hurricane hunters are scheduled to get up into this system Tuesday afternoon, and we should get more reliable data.

Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com .

Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!

Catch you soon!

Jonathan

Ways to stay connected this hurricane season

You can log on and chat with me live during our live streaming weather hangout session. That is every Monday-Friday at 9:30 p.m. To comment, be signed into YouTube and subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page or click here and become an insider and comment in the live chat box!

📱News 6 Weather App

Even if you are outside of Central Florida, download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market, and it’s FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season, if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.

💻YouTube

If you live in Central Florida, subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page.

If you love the weather, whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!

Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.

📺News 6+

If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all, thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! We have a lot of hurricane season-related content on demand here, and you can watch all of the newscasts LIVE as well. You can download that on your smart TV or other streaming devices.

One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an email at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on Facebook or X.

We’re in this together. We have families here, too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.

OK, now I’m done.

Talk to you soon!

- Jonathan