🚂Tropical wave train begins

But that doesn’t mean we should be concerned just yet.

There are three tropical waves in the Central and Eastern Atlantic worth noting. At this time, however, their bark is worse than their bite.

Invest 94L is the leading wave. The NHC designated that this weekend so we could get the suite of tropical models run on it for further investigation.

Dry, dusty air awaits that disturbance and significant development is not expected.

The trailing waves may end up having a better shot at development. They may, for a short time, dip under a plume of Saharan dust. When I say they have a better shot, it’s still technically just to become a tropical system.

The European ensembles show the first two waves dying out. The second may have a shot to briefly become a depression or storm before quickly meeting its demise. The third is getting a lot of ensemble support for potential tropical development. The euro ensembles go out 10 days, so what is depicted is through July 31.

The map above shows rising motion anomalies. We use this model to forecast when the Madden-Julian Oscillation may be coming into the basin. When it does, it helps turn the basin much more conducive to tropical development by promoting thunderstorm growth.

The red circle in the map above shows rising motion anomalies in the Central Atlantic. This isn’t the MJO, but likely a smaller-scale Kelvin wave. This can promote an area of favorability on a much smaller and shorter scale than the MJO.

Anyway, that is why there could be a brief window for development with those trailing waves. Still, I don’t think it’s anything to worry about because wind shear is still high closer to home.

Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com .

Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!

Catch you soon!

Jonathan

Ways to stay connected this hurricane season

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OK, now I’m done.

Talk to you soon!

- Jonathan