AI models vs. Deterministic models. Two enter... one will win.
I’m talking about this regarding a cluster of waves emerging off the African coast.
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You may have seen model runs being shared over the weekend of a hurricane near the Bahamas and Florida during the first week of August.
Those were the Artificial Intelligence models. The European AI and Google’s AI model have been bullish with development.
The deterministic models, GFS, EURO, ICON, CMC, that we have been used to don’t show much development.
If you want to learn more about how the AI models that have burst onto the scene work, click here.
So which wins? I’m taking a wait-and-see approach and here’s why.
The Atlantic overall is still not favorable for development. A large area of high pressure is building over the Azores.
This setup tends to inject dry and stable air into areas where tropical systems try to develop and thrive. Both are bad news for storms and good news for us. That should keep the season in check for at least the next several weeks.
The issue? Close to home.
One of the things we highlighted in our preseason outlook was the stability of the Main Development Region of the Atlantic. The MDR is the area of the Caribbean all the way to Africa.
It appeared for a good chunk of the first half of the season that the Atlantic would be stable and dry, making it hard for storms to develop.
So far, that has been the case. We went on to say we would have tropical waves that look a little sad and unorganized out at sea get reinvigorated as they get close to land. This is because the water close to home is so much hotter relative to the surrounding water through the Atlantic.
That’s what the AI models are suggesting, so it’s definitely something to watch.
One other wave I want to point out is just north of the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas. To me, it looks healthy, containing outflow, meaning upper-level winds are favorable and it’s been firing off thunderstorms every now and then.
NHC doesn’t have it highlighted and it likely wouldn’t impact any landmass, but it’s a sign things are a little more favorable close to home.
I am very interested in what the next week to ten days will bring in the tropics.
Just know there is nothing imminent.
Battle 1 to watch:
- AI vs. deterministic physics-based models
- Large-scale unfavorable look for Atlantic or the small bubble of favorability close to home.
I should also point out not to latch on to individual model runs. We are so far out that nothing is concrete.
See you next week or better yet, at 9:30 on News 6+ and the News 6 YouTube channel for our nightly weather hangout!
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com .
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Catch you soon!
Jonathan
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OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan