Hey, guys! I swear we didn’t go back to Monday.
I just wanted to drop a line to give an update on Erin and talk about some of the stuff I’m seeing and hearing.
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First off, Erin is still a tropical storm as of Wednesday evening. It is still expected to become a major hurricane as it bends away from Florida.
Watching for possible impacts at this time in the northern Caribbean and possibly the Carolina coast. Bermuda is also still the realm of possibilities.
The models are going to continue to bounce back and forth. That’s expected. If you see posts like “BREAKING: The storm has unexpectedly shifted”. I promise you it hasn’t.
We don’t have a ton of data right now for specifics, but it’s looking likely that this will miss Florida.
All of the European ensembles keep the storm off the Florida coastline. It’s looked like that for days.
Hurricane Hunter missions into Erin start Thursday evening and continue into Friday.
This will give us critical data on what’s happening inside the storm to better forecast where it’s going.
You will start to see the spaghetti models start to get closer together once we have better data from those missions.
Another thing I’m seeing out there is a lot of worry that Erin will do the same thing as Irma did in 2017. Most models suggest a turn. We all know it didn’t.
While I will never say never until the thing turns, there are BIG differences between the storms and between the two models.
There was at least some indication that the storm would make landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida. You can read more on why I don’t think that Erin will pull an Irma.
I’ll keep you posted. There’s nothing to worry about in Florida at the moment.
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
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OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan