First off I hope you’re enjoying your Labor Day! On the tropical front it’s thankfully a quiet start to September.
Currently there are no named storms in the Atlantic and there’s only one wave to watch.
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That will likely change over the next several weeks. More on that in a second.
The only disturbance to note has just rolled off the coast of Africa. This has a decent shot to become the next tropical depression, if not even named storm, of the season.
It’s certainly one to watch given it rolled off of Africa low. With the current steering in place, the longer it’s weak, the more west it will come. The stronger it gets the better chance it will have to get on out of here.
Most of the ensemble members of Google’s new AI model get a relatively weak system near the Northeast Caribbean before turning north away from the U.S. The time period on the model above is through August 13.
If you have been following national weather headlines then you know the eastern 2/3s of the U.S., except Florida, has been enjoying an early taste of autumn. Another round of cooler air looks to plunge in over the next week or so.
This type of pattern favors storms curving away from the U.S. It’s not impossible for a storm to sneak around it, but it becomes really hard for a storm to make landfall along the east coast in this kind of pattern.
REST OF SEASON
I know the narrative out there right now is that this season has been a bust relative to forecast. Believe me...I would love if that’s the case. Unfortunately, I think it’s playing out as most expected; a relatively tame start with a several week flurry of activity to end the season. Just like last year.
A La Nina is developing and the Madden-Julian Oscillation will be passing by over the next couple of weeks. The combination of two should unfortunately kick-start the second half of the season.
I think in the not-too-distant future we’ll be watching the western Caribbean or southern Gulf for tropical mischief.
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
You can log on and chat with me live during our live streaming weather hangout session.
That is every Monday-Friday at 9:30 p.m. To comment, be signed into YouTube and subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page or click here and become an insider and comment in the live chat box!
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If you live in Central Florida, subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page.
If you love the weather, whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
ClickOrlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource, no matter where you live.
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If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all, thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! We have a lot of hurricane season-related content on demand here, and you can watch all of the newscasts LIVE as well. You can download that on your smart TV or other streaming devices.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something?
Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an email at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on Facebook or X.
We’re in this together. We have families here, too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan