So far we have seen 6 named storms this season. 5 tropical storms and one category 5 hurricane. That’s kind of weird. You may remember the first two storms barely even lasted 12 hours.
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Then we had Invest 91L. That was the disturbance being hyped up all last week.
Invest 91L is the prime reason why you can’t put stock in models more than a week out. While everyone was posting doom and gloom scenarios of a major hurricane into the Southeast, News 6 was highlighting the more likely weaker scenarios.
The fact though that models blew this storm up just to completely wash it out days later is wild.
It’s peak season and the basin is having trouble sustaining any kind of development.
Models have been too bullish on these waves all season. In all likelihood, models are underestimating just how stable the Atlantic basin, especially the area in between the Caribbean and Africa really is.
Models will see the wave and say “hey it’s September and the water is warm...this should develop”.
And then it doesn’t.
Instability or lack thereof was a huge problem for the storms last year until we got into fall and naturally cooled the upper atmosphere . When you have cooler air on top of warm air or water, instability is generated. That instability fuels thunderstorms.
As I mentioned in last week’s newsletter, we will likely cram the hurricane into a several-week stretch starting in late-September.
It would be nice, though, if the basin would continue this trend and not be able to support those ones too.
Thanks for reading!
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
You can log on and chat with me live during our live streaming weather hangout session.
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ClickOrlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource, no matter where you live.
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We’re in this together. We have families here, too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan