The tropical wave we were tracking off of Africa last week has now been designated as Invest 92L. Remember, that just means we get those fancy computer models to help track the system.
While the red bubble may look concerning, most if not all of the model guidance bends this away from the U.S.
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Most of the European ensembles keep it away from U.S. as well. The biggest concern would be for Bermuda.
You’ll notice some other lines on the ensemble map indicating further development in the western Caribbean or Gulf.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, that convective pulse that can enhance or suppress thunderstorm development, looks like it’s going to move into the Atlantic from the Pacific side during the third week of September.
The green on the map indicates anomalous rising motion over Central America, the western Caribbean and Gulf. Rising motion helps thunderstorms to develop.
This entity combined with climatology should make this region the focal point for tropical development by the end of the month and the first half of October.
The sinking-air phase of the MJO should slide through by late October hopefully shutting the rest of the season down.
All of that to say there are no immediate threats to the U.S., but like last year we may see an uptick in tropical activity to close out the season.
Thanks for reading!
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
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OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan