That escalated quickly. Gabrielle was barely a tropical storm last week and now it’s a monster category 4 storm with winds of 140mph. (as of 7 p.m. on 9/22)
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Thankfully, this is just impacting the fish directly.
There are two other tropical waves highlighted by the National Hurricane Center.
The first wave has a development bubble over the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas and close to Florida.
The trailing wave, east of the first, has the higher chance for development at this time.
Forecasting the end result of what happens in this scenario will be difficult and you may see abrupt changes.
When storms get this close their outflow could either induce negative wind shear on one another or cause the storm to make an abrupt change.
I’m still cautiously optimistic it turns before Florida, but until we see how these storms develop over the next couple of days, it will be hard to determine what happens.
One of these waves could still impact the U.S. however.
A dip in the jet stream looks to be lurking across the Southeast U.S. next week. Typically we these send westward storms packing, however, there are indications the dip could cut off from the normal flow. This too would complicate forecasting.
Now you’re trying to forecast how two storms that aren’t formed yet interact with each other and then how one or both interact with the larger system in the Southeast.
With that said...ensembles, ensembles...ensembles. They are the best thing to look at the gauge any possibility when we don’t have a developed storms.
The GFS and Euro ensembles keep both storms away from Florida.
The Google Deep Mind AI has its members a little more west.
They are accounting for the cut off low mentioned above to yank the system back west.
We’re just watching now! Just wanted to let you know some of things we were factoring into the forecast.
Thanks for reading!
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
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OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan