There are currently two systems in the Atlantic with the potential for tropical development.
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The one in the Atlantic will curve away from the U.S., but we will be watching for our friends in the northeastern Caribbean.
The second area to watch is closer to the Yucatan. It won’t have a ton of time over open water, but any tropical moisture into the mountains of Mexico is unwelcome.
This is the area that has my interest as we move into the middle of October.
In this newsletter we have often highlighted the MJO, a convective pulse that moves around the equator and can enhance or suppress tropical development.
Indications are that large scale forcing brought on by that MJO will enter the Atlantic basin.
It has helped get two named storms going in the Pacific as we speak.
The green in the graphic above represents rising motion.
By next week, that pulse should move into the Gulf/Caribbean to invigorate the Central American Gyre. That gyre typically develops around the time of the year so naturally we are always watching.
I will say there is nothing concrete on the models going out the next couple of weeks, but if the MJO does pass through that will likely change.
Let’s just hope for a nice quiet end to the 2025 season.
Talk to you soon!
Jonathan
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
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OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan