🌀Chatter About Late October

If you blinked you missed Karen. That formed in the extreme North Atlantic as a subtropical storm last week. It was around for less than a day, but did meet the requirements a subtropical storm.

A subtropical storm is like a cyborg. Part tropical, part non-tropical. The storm still was attached to fronts, non-tropical, but around it’s core it had thunderstorms, tropical. Therefore it received a name.

Lorenzo formed Monday morning and will make a run for hurricane status. Lorenzo will impact no one.

All eyes will then turn to the Caribbean. We talked about this potential in last week’s newsletter. Models are picking up on something trying to enter the Caribbean during the last week of October.

But will it?

The models WHIFFED again big time with Jerry. Models had it approaching major hurricane status....it barely survived as a tropical storm.

Any model that shows a strong storm prior to entering the Caribbean needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Once the wave enters the Caribbean conditions will become more favorable, but there are questions as to what the wave will look like.

Bothe the Euro and GFS ensembles have been highlighting this potential. The ensemble data below is through Oct. 23.

The Google DeepMind AI has shown it, but it’s certainly not as bullish as its physics-based counterparts.

This may be season’s last push as by the time we are done with any potential storm we’ll be in the last week of October.

This is one to watch, but that’s about it right now. There’s a lot of chatter, but remember, models have performed horribly with African waves this season.

I’ll keep you posted!

Oh I almost forgot! To date, something VERY unusual is happening when it comes to the current hurricane season. Click here to find out what. I think it will blow your mind...and I hope it stays that way!

Thanks for reading!

- Jonathan

Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.

Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!

Catch you soon!

Jonathan

Ways to stay connected this hurricane season

You can log on and chat with me live during our live streaming weather hangout session.

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If you love the weather, whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!

ClickOrlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource, no matter where you live.

📺 News 6+

If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all, thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! We have a lot of hurricane season-related content on demand here, and you can watch all of the newscasts LIVE as well. You can download that on your smart TV or other streaming devices.

One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something?

Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an email at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on Facebook or X.

We’re in this together. We have families here, too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.

OK, now I’m done.

Talk to you soon!

- Jonathan