Soon-to-be Melissa is organizing in the eastern Caribbean as we speak.
Even at this hour there is still some uncertainty as to where this disturbance goes. Direct impacts to Florida and the U.S. appears low.
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A parade of cold fronts should slam the door on the disturbance getting into the Gulf, however.
The question remains where does it turn north.
A faster-organizing system will cause a more abrupt turn towards the Dominican Republic.
A slower-organizing storm will be able to push more west toward Central America before it lifts north toward Cuba.
The ensembles from Google show those two scenarios.
Embedded in those solutions is the opportunity for the storm to stall. This is because high pressure over Mexico will act to push down on the storm as it tries to lift north.
There is some wind shear impacting the storm and it should encounter at least some light-to-moderate-shear for the bulk of its life.
With that said, the storm posses a significant flood threat to parts of the Caribbean at the very least.
This *may* be the last big threat for the Atlantic season. We’re always on guard, of course, as hurricane season officially ends Dec. 1.
Almost there!
Thanks for reading!
- Jonathan
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
You can log on and chat with me live during our live streaming weather hangout session.
That is every Monday-Friday at 9:30 p.m. To comment, be signed into YouTube and subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page or click here and become an insider and comment in the live chat box!
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If you live in Central Florida, subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page.
If you love the weather, whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
ClickOrlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource, no matter where you live.
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If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all, thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! We have a lot of hurricane season-related content on demand here, and you can watch all of the newscasts LIVE as well. You can download that on your smart TV or other streaming devices.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something?
Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an email at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on Facebook or X.
We’re in this together. We have families here, too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan