Last week I mentioned that this edition of the newsletter would put a bow on the hurricane season and look back at the last almost 6 months.
The internet said NOT SO FAST!
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I typically don’t let the internet dictate what we talk about in this newsletter, but what I saw over the weekend was egregious.
If you weren’t scrolling this weekend, social media was lighting up with talks of a December hurricane threat for Florida.
I know. Facepalm. It’s not happening.
The GFS started it with this run from the weekend. I’m just showing this for context. I don’t believe it and neither should you.
For what its worth the GFS does not have any development in its latest run. You won’t see that map shared because it doesn’t generate clicks and revenue.
There is something critically wrong with that model and should not be trusted tropically-speaking unless other models are on board with development.
What gave the GFS some short-term credibility was a handful of the Google DeepMind AI ensemble members showed something developing in the western Caribbean and lifting north.
The DeepMind has been one of the best-performing models this season.
Still, its irresponsible to plaster that everywhere as gospel.
Later in the weekend that threat was all but washed out by the model.
Now, just ONE member of the 50 members that make up the ensemble show something developing.
I love those odds.
Is it possible?
The MJO is pushing through and the Caribbean is still super warm, however, the wind shear is cranked up. It’s about to be December.
IF, and its a BIG IF, something got going it would get sheared apart in the Gulf. The system wouldn’t be significant and actually the rainfall would be beneficial.
Long story short...I’m not worried and you shouldn’t be either.
I hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving! Catch you Monday!
- Jonathan
Let me know if there is anything you want to see discussed in a future newsletter entry. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com.
Don’t forget to tune into the nightly weather livestream every Monday through Friday (NOW AT 9:30 p.m.) on the News 6 YouTube channel and ClickOrlando.com. Come with questions or comments!
Catch you soon!
Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
You can log on and chat with me live during our live streaming weather hangout session.
That is every Monday-Friday at 9:30 p.m. To comment, be signed into YouTube and subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page or click here and become an insider and comment in the live chat box!
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If you live in Central Florida, subscribe to the WKMG/ClickOrlando page.
If you love the weather, whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
ClickOrlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource, no matter where you live.
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If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all, thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! We have a lot of hurricane season-related content on demand here, and you can watch all of the newscasts LIVE as well. You can download that on your smart TV or other streaming devices.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something?
Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an email at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on Facebook or X.
We’re in this together. We have families here, too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
OK, now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
- Jonathan