What’s going on, guys?! Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges back with you for another edition of Tropics Watch!
The theme of the 2026 hurricane season to date has been short-lived tropical storms with most of them forming in the subtropical Atlantic.
Recommended Videos
That continued today with the formation of Tropical Storm Hanna.
Hanna will again be one for the fish.
That could change though during the first week of October.
We talked in the last couple of newsletters that the overall pattern would be supportive of disturbed weather in the Gulf as the calendar flips.
Since last week’s edition, guidance has has become more bullish on development in the Bay Of Campeche/southern Gulf region.
Nothing to get overly worried about at this point, because we have seen the story before with model guidance being bullish and nothing materializing, however it makes sense meteorologically why the signal is growing.
- The MJO, Madden-Julian Oscillation, is trying to move through which would promote storminess in the region.
- The Gulf water is very warm and largely untapped
- Wind shear during the first week of October backs off a little in the western Gulf.
The white and blue color in the map above show below normal wind shear. The red in the Caribbean is the above normal, El Nino induced wind shear.
Wind shear should increase as that week goes on.
At this point we just watch. There is no active storm to track in the region, but the signal is there for at least some disturbed weather to form.
Not that we have had many threats to dodge this season anyway, but it really does look like once we get beyond the first 10-12 days of October we can close the book on impacts for the 2026 hurricane season.
Any questions feel free to hit me up at jkegges@wkmg.com
- Jonathan
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! You can also watch the special on June 1st at 8 p.m. by downloading the FREE News 6+ app! You can watch all of the newscasts on here as well. You can download that on your smart T.V. or other streaming devices.
News 6 Weather App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
