The National Weather Service has turbocharged its lagging forecast model to better predict extreme weather events such as hurricanes, blizzards and downpours, as well as day-to-day weather.
By including much higher layers of the atmosphere, increased factoring of ocean waves and other improvements, the weather service’s update to its Global Forecast System is trying to catch up with a European weather model that many experts consider superior.
Forecasters say this new model does not predict more rain and snow than actually arrives, which its predecessor had a tendency to do.
“This is for the general day-to-day forecasting and for the extreme events, and you’ve got to get both right,” said National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini.
Over the past 31 days, there was a stretch of eight straight days when this new version beat the highly-touted European forecast model, but in general over the period the European version was still better, Uccellini said.