Tropical Storm Karen: Track, models, updates

Orlando area to see another nice day

ORLANDO, Fla. – Here's the latest on the tropics, where three tropical storms are swirling, including Tropical Storm Karen, which is expected to drench Puerto Rico before strengthening in the open Atlantic on a path possibly toward Florida.

  • Use video player above to track all 3 storms
  • Karen strengthens back into tropical storm
  • Karen's max winds are 45 mph
  • Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
  • Computer models disagree on storm's future path

11 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center said heavy rain and flash flooding will continue over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Karen has sustained winds of 45 mph and is 85 miles northeast of San Juan. The storm is moving north-northeast at 14 mph.

A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico including Vieques and Culebra and the British Virgin Islands. 

8 p.m.

Heavy rain squalls from Tropical Storm Karen are beginning to spread over parts of southeastern Puerto Rico as the system nears the island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday evening that Karen's core is located about 45 miles (75 kilometers) east of San Juan Puerto Rico. The storm is moving to the northeast at 10 mph (16 kph) and has top sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph). Forecasters warn the storm could produce heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides over the coming hours.

Meanwhile, high winds are expected early Wednesday in Bermuda as Tropical Storm Jerry approaches that island. Jerry is now about 250 miles (405 kilometers) west-southwest of Bermuda and has maximum winds of 50 mph (85 kph). The hurricane center say Jerry is expected to turn to the northeast in the next hours and then to the east-northeast on Wednesday while passing close to Bermuda.

5 p.m.

The center of Tropical Storm Karen continues moving toward the north near 8 mph with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph.

Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

2 p.m.

Tropical Storm Karen had strengthened slightly with sustained 45 mph winds as it continues to move north at 8 mph.

On its current track, the center of Karen will pass Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Tropical storms Jerry and Lorenzo do not appear to be a threat to land.

The next three named storms will be called Melissa, Nestor and Olga.

Hurricane season runs through November.

TS Karen track.

11 a.m.

According to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Karen is approaching Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands moving north at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra and the British Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

TS Karen models.

8 a.m.

Tropical Storm Karen is 75 miles west-southwest of St. Croix with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

Karen is moving north at 7 mph toward Puerto Rico.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

5 a.m. TUESDAY

Karen regained tropical storm strength early Tuesday with winds of 40 mph.

"On its track, Karen will move onshore over the eastern side of Puerto Rico by Tuesday afternoon," News 6 meteorologist Candace Campos said.

Karen could dump up to 4 inches of rainfall through the day.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

"Once it emerges into the Atlantic, computer models begin to disagree on Karen's path," Campos said. "Some keep it out at sea, while others veer it east toward Florida. There is still plenty of time to watch Karen over the next few days."

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo continues to spin in the far eastern Atlantic.

Lorenzo is expected to become a major hurricane but stay over open waters. 

And Tropical Storm Jerry continues to pull away from the eastern seaboard with sustained winds of 60 mph.

Jerry should weaken into a remnant low by the end of the week over the northern Atlantic.

Orlando-area forecast

A significant drying trend associated with a large ridge of high pressure just north of Central Florida will bring another sunny and warm day, with winds lighter than past days.

A modest onshore flow will develop along the coast by midday, with temperatures making it well into the 80s Tuesday afternoon.

Rip currents will be strong along the coast.

Lows will cool into the mid- to upper 60s, with only a few clouds.

Candace Campos' pinpoint forecast.

Watch News 6 for more weather coverage.

About the Authors:

Daniel started with WKMG-TV in 2000 and became the digital content manager in 2009. When he's not working on, Daniel likes to head to the beach or find a sporting event nearby.

Candace joined the News 6 team as the weekend morning meteorologist and reporter. She comes to Central Florida from Miami.