This is the time of the season where tropical activity in the Atlantic begins to increase. Saharan dust and other detrimental factors for tropical development begin to go away and thunderstorm activity over the tropics tends to increase. Even though we have been on a record setting pace in terms of named storms this season, most of the storms have been weak and short-lived. The Atlantic has been full of dusty, dry air for most of the season to date and hasn’t been able to sustain tropical development.
Two new tropical waves have been highlighted by the National Hurricane Center for possible development over the next five days. While both waves currently have a low chance for development over that time, conditions become more favorable for development beyond that five day period.
At this time, the wave closer to Africa may take longer to develop as it will still be battling dry air. The environment in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, however is becoming more conducive for development.
The enhanced phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a disturbance that circles the globe during the spring and summer, is entering the Gulf of Mexico and will act to enhance tropical development basin wide as it moves towards Africa.
It is all just a wait and see right now. It is impossible to tell if Florida will be impacted by any of these storms until they actually develop, but as we head towards peak season, it’s always a good time to make sure you are prepared.
For a more in-depth look at tropics click here.