ORLANDO, Fla. – We know it has been an active season and we all know that warm Atlantic water is the energy supply for the storms, but have you seen just how much the Atlantic has warmed?
It the last 100 years, sea surface temperatures have warmed 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. That might not sound like much to you, but try to imagine the Atlantic as your body and you are now running a low-grade fever constantly.
That low-grade fever has lead to more and more active seasons, like the one we are in right now. It also leads to stronger storms. It’s not just the Atlantic that is having an increase in strong storms, this is a trend across the globe.
The threat of having more storms, and stronger storms, is obvious but here is something else to consider. Over the last few decades, meteorologists have become remarkably better at forecasting the track of tropical systems. However, where we still fall short is in the forecasting of the strength of a system. The threat of a rapidly strengthening tropical storm or hurricane approaching our coast is a nightmare.
The threat of more of those, ala Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Hurricane Charley in 2004, grows larger if there is more fuel in the water for the storms to use.
So remember when we talk about Forecasting Change, the impacts for Florida, and for you, are not just a forecast. They are real.