ORLANDO, Fla. – Fred is looking ragged after a date with the highest mountains in the Caribbean Wednesday.
The system is struggling to survive as it moves parallel with the coastline of Cuba. As Fred moves through the Florida Straits there is a little room for it to organize, but significant development isn’t expected as it moves into the Gulf.
As expected, the mountains of Hispaniola did a number on Fred. Hardly any deep thunderstorm activity around its exposed center to the northeast of Cuba. Re-development should be SLOW. pic.twitter.com/BO0umoLn6j— Jonathan Kegges (@JonathanKegges) August 12, 2021
Tropical storm-force winds are not expected in Central Florida, even if Fred is able to become a tropical storm again. At the very worst, impacts in Central Florida will be minimal Sunday. Rounds of heavy rain and brief tornado threat will be possible if the center clings to the west coast of Florida.
If Fred can start to pull itself together as it enters the Gulf, there will be room for it to approach hurricane status as it moves toward the panhandle. All of that, however, remains to be seen as we watch Fred try to pick itself up off the floor after the beating it received from the Dominican Republic. Thursday is the big day in Fred’s life to see how much more organization can occur.
What lies behind Fred?
Invest 95-L as it is designated looks poised to take a similar path Fred is taking. Invest stands for area of investigation, the number starts at 90 and cycles through for the entire hurricane season. “L” is the basin designation for the Atlantic.
This disturbance could become a depression over the coming days as it approaches the Leeward Islands and Caribbean. This is something Floridians should just be mindful of at the moment. The orange shaded blob isn’t a forecast cone, but the area that the disturbance could develop in.
If it looks like this disturbance will stay north of the Caribbean islands, Floridians will have to pay even closer attention. Another wave could roll off Africa over the weekend or early next week. This will continue to become more common as we move deeper into August.