Tropics Watch: Could we really end August with no Atlantic hurricanes?

August could come to a close with no named storms

ORLANDO, Fla. – August is typically one of the more active months during hurricane season, but in 2022 it has thankfully been anything but.

Since Tropical Storm Colin dissipated July 3, there have been no named storms in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, there hasn’t even been a tropical depression.

The last time there was not a tropical depression, storm or hurricane in the Atlantic during the month of August was in 1997.

Could it happen in 2022?

There are a couple of tropical waves in the Atlantic basin now that could end up developing into a depression or named storm by the month’s end, but it will be close. Development chances are low over the next five days, with only gradual development possible.

To date, no hurricanes have developed in the Atlantic basin during the 2022 season. On average, the first hurricane develops Aug 11.

Hurricane development is very quiet through June and July and typically ramps up as August begins. The peak of hurricane season occurs September 10.

The latest date the first hurricane of the season developed over the last 30 years was on Sep 11. That happened in 2013 and 2002.

Latest first hurricane since 1992

The last time there were no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August was 2018.

Reason for quiet season to date?

The Saharan Air Layer, the dry, dusty and stable air that originates over the Sahara Desert in Africa has dominated most of the tropical Atlantic this season. The dry and stable air helps to suppress thunderstorm development.

Heading into September

Two tropical waves have a small chance for development over the last couple of days of August, but could have a slightly better chance in the first couple of days of September.

Large-scale weather features are meeting up with the climatological peak of hurricane season. The combination of the two will promote robust thunderstorm activity over Africa through the middle of September. That alone will help to increase the chance for tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles.

Those waves will have to continue to battle dry, dusty air in the short term, but eventually the overall environment will become more conducive for development.

The peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10, with the season running through November.

About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 and now covers weather on TV and all digital platforms.