The latest advisory from National Hurricane Center puts Barbara at hurricane strength, meaning it is now the first hurricane of the 2025 season.
It is also the very first hurricane of the northern hemisphere for 2025 as a whole.
Thankfully, it is far from us here in Central Florida.
According to the latest track from NHC, it is expected to avoid any landfalls let alone any significant land interaction altogether before fizzling thanks to a combination of different dynamics.
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The newest information gives Barbara max sustained winds of 75mph, and on a northwesterly course at around 10 mph.
The hurricane center does suggest conditions could remain favorable for a bit more intensification as Barbara moves off on its current course, but the window is quickly closing.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, of Colorado State University, Barbara is the latest first Northern Hemisphere hurricane since 1993.
The entirety of the northern hemisphere has been fairly quiet despite approaching the first month of our seasons beginning. The Western Pacific has produced no storms, and the Atlantic is not slated to see any tropical development for the next seven or so days.
The East Pacific has been primed for tropical activity, given the current state of our Madden Julian Oscillation parked directly over the basin. We’re still monitoring whether or not some of this energy could bleed into the western Caribbean or even the southwest Gulf to provide the Atlantic enough juice to attempt developing its first named storm.
To the southwest of where hurricane Barbara is positioned, tropical storm Cosme also recently developed and is further organizing.
Sustained winds are up from 50 mph to 65 mph as of 11 a.m., and central pressure has dropped about 6 mbs, which indicates the storm is quickly getting its act together and approaching hurricane strength.
The latest cone forecast from the hurricane center expects this tropical storm to strengthen to hurricane status before the weakening trend begins.
Despite the amount of activity in the Eastern Pacific, these tropical systems only have a small region or window to take advantage of favorable conditions. There’s only a small slot of very warm water off the coast of Mexico and Central America. Thanks to a pulse from the MJO, there’s plenty of lift and moisture to go around as well.
Lastly, our aggressive high pressure ridge in the central Atlantic has rapidly accelerated the easterly winds we typically observe year-round across the tropics pushing anything that could have a chance at spinning up on our side of the ballpark right into Pacific waters.
NHC has a third area already given a 60 percent shot at taking on the fourth named storm of the Pacific hurricane season through the next week. The fourth name on their list is Dalila.
All-in-all, despite how many storms continue to spawn over the Pacific, each of these are not forecast to directly impact land. Mexico especially does not need any named storms after their troubles with Otis of 2023 and John last year in 2024.
There could be some increased rainfall, elevated coastal wind, and rough seas as a result of each of these individual spins. But right now, none of the mentioned storms are likely to move directly inland.