The Atlantic basin has been absolutely quiet since the start of our hurricane season on June 1. The same can’t be said for the Eastern Pacific we neighbor on the other side of Central America.
We’re already through four named storms, with number five currently on the board, headed northwest towards the coastline of Mexico.
Why is this important? The last couple of seasons, Acapulco, Mexico has been dealt a very brutal hand by Mother Nature. Hurricane Otis of 2023 rapidly intensified into a lethal category five hurricane right before landfall, and a majority of our computer models struggled to pick up on this intensity ceiling.
Last year, Hurricane John performed almost exactly the same as its counterpart, Otis, the year prior.
Tropical Storm Erick is now spinning its way closer to landfall, with a forecasted impact likely in about two to three days, pending its forward speed.
This system is a lot smaller than the broad, sloppy tropical storms we’ve seen to date. Barbara was the only feature in the Eastern Pacific to successfully achieve hurricane status, albeit short-lived, before it quickly faded away thanks to cooler waters and unfavorable upper-level conditions.
The story is a bit different for Erick, which first of all comes in a lot smaller. You all remember Milton, yes?
When you boil down tropical systems to strictly a physics standpoint - just motion, nothing more - smaller storms tend to strengthen and weaken much faster than the larger, slower rotating hurricanes.
Let’s do a brief comparison of Helene and Milton. Helene took a bit to gain some momentum, before finally intensifying to category four strength right before its landfall in the Big Bend of Florida.
Milton, on the other hand, a much smaller and far more compact tropical storm, quickly closed its center and spun fast into a major category five in the Bay of Campeche. Why is this?
Smaller storms can wall themselves off from outside influence much quicker. They also have a tendency to simply spin faster and easier. Think about the classic figure skater or dancer analogy. They spin slower with their arms outstretched but quickly pick up speed once they start to pull their hands in.
With a smaller amount of overall size, it’s far easier for small tropical systems to pick up that speed and start to build up more power.
We also have a couple of weather-related factors working with the storm. Water temperatures are around 30-31 degrees Celsius where the center is positioned right now. Below the surface, there’s plenty of heat energy to be pulled in by the circulation and used to boost its horsepower.
Above where the center of low pressure is, we have air spreading out. This is called diffluent flow. When you spread the air out horizontally highest up in the atmosphere, you not only increase lift, which breeds storms, it also helps with the “breathing” factor for tropical storms. The more the storm can use this exhaust mechanism, the more it can pull in more energy from below.
Hurricane models HAFS A and B give this system a good shot at achieving category two wind speeds and pressure. However, given the current environment over this piece of the Eastern Pacific, it’s not outlandish to see rapid intensification take place and it become a major hurricane right before landfall. It’s happened in several instances before.
Why am I writing about this today? Why should we care? The folks of Acapulco have yet to fully recover from Otis two years prior. Hurricane John only hindered that recovery process further. The infrastructure of that area has taken a nasty hit, and it looks like the East Pacific may try to deal a third consecutive blow based on what we’re currently watching.
It’s also summer vacation, so it’s highly likely there’s a good amount of tourists, even Floridians, in the general area.
Just like Central Florida still feels the effects of Milton, Helene, Debbie, Idalia, and even Ian of 2022, recovery efforts take time. We’ll be constantly watching the progress of this storm and hoping for the absolute best possible outcome for those in harm’s way.