ORLANDO, Fla. – A much wetter, more active weather pattern is settling over east Central Florida just in time for the holiday weekend.
With several rounds of storms on the way, the risk for flooding, gusty winds and frequent lightning is rising.
[BELOW: How to strengthen your weather radio signal]
Weather setup
After lingering off the Atlantic coast for days, an upper-level low that’s been driving our weather is finally moving east.
But don’t let that fool you into thinking the threat is over because it’s being replaced by a new disturbance diving into the Southeast, pulling deep tropical moisture northward into Florida.
Tuesday
Storms have a 60% chance of developing along the coast by late morning, then gradually pushing inland. The most widespread activity is expected in the late afternoon and early evening.
The storms will be packed with moisture and could dump heavy rain quickly.
While upper-level conditions aren’t perfect for widespread severe weather, a few stronger storms may still produce gusty winds up to 50 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and downpours dropping 1 to 3 inches of rain in a short time.
[BELOW: Trooper Steve on using hazard lights in rain]
Wednesday through Friday
Even wetter weather moves in as a weak front slides south into Florida, allowing tropical moisture to surge. This period looks very wet, with multiple rounds of showers and storms likely each day.
The atmosphere will be saturated, with moisture levels near the highest we usually see this time of year. That means repeated heavy rain, especially on Thursday.
Flooding risk
Some areas could see several inches of rain over a few days, raising flooding concerns, especially where heavy rain falls early in the week.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed much of East Central Florida under a Level 1-2 risk for excessive rainfall each day through Friday.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is watching a stalled front for possible low-pressure development by the weekend.
The chance of it becoming a tropical system is low, but whether it does or not, the bigger concern remains heavy rain and flooding.
Weekend
The weekend forecast depends on how that possible low-pressure system develops.
Regardless, the wet pattern is expected to continue into Saturday and possibly Sunday.