ORLANDO, Fla. – During the hurricane season, we see them ALL the time, especially during busy periods. For example, “chances of formation at 20%” or “chances of formation are now up to 50%.”
These color-coded regions are there for a specific purpose, and they’re not to highlight track, intensity or anything outside of where our next tropical feature could try and organize into a consolidated low pressure center.
But on a regular basis, especially on good ol’ social media, we see these graphics blown way out of proportion to create unnecessary drama or draw in the click-revenue.
First of all, I want to cover “area of interest.”
The National Hurricane Center uses this as a blanket statement, if you will. An area of interest could be a cluster of sloppy showers and thunderstorms somewhere in the tropics. An area of interest could even be just a local sliver of geography that is more favorable than other spots in terms of whether it can produce a tropical storm.
About three-quarters of the time, especially when confidence is high of storm formation, the hurricane center will highlight an area of favorable conditions. Once a tropical wave, a tropical disturbance or other “trigger” mechanisms move in, we’re off to the races.
Let’s use our current area of interest as an example, especially given a lot of the now orange coloring is painting the majority of the Florida peninsula.
Right now, it’s easy to see why Florida being bathed in anything relating to the hurricane center could cause anxiety or stress.
These formation zones highlight strictly the confidence of where a system is most likely to develop, and then we can begin tracking it. Our zone over Florida is likely to change here very soon as well, as models continue to trend towards something brewing off our east coast and riding up north towards the Mid-Atlantic region or out to sea in the Northwest Atlantic ocean.
Be careful with some of the information and videos you get on your phone or other websites like YouTube. These yellow, orange and red blobs simply highlight confidence of where our next feature will form into a bonified named storm.
The tracking doesn’t officially begin until there is a closed circulation we can find on weather maps or via the hurricane hunter team as they fly into an “area of investigation,” or “invest,” as you’ve heard plenty times before.
In summary:
- Yellow: (0-30%) An area National Hurricane Center will begin monitoring over the next seven days to see if conditions improve for tropical development, or if a feature wandering into this general shaded area will see more organization within a week or so.
- Orange: (40-60%) Confidence is elevated we see something in the form of a tropical or subtropical low pressure begin to take shape. To be considered a low pressure, you need to have counter-clockwise turning of your winds, and what looks like a closed center where winds wrap fully around in a circle. Models are generally in better agreement something will be forming, but we’re still working to drill down exactly what that “something” will look like.
- Red: (70-100%) Confidence is high our next named storm or tropical system is on the way. Models are in good agreement of timing and location. The current state of the environment is healthy for storms to form, and our trigger (tropical wave, low pressure, cold front) is ready to rock and roll. **DISCLAIMER - Red formation zones have gone backwards too. Confidence being high doesn’t always mean we will inevitably see another tropical storm hit the board.