We can finally openly say Hurricane Erin is on its last leg. Since Thursday, it has started the transition from a fully symmetrical tropical system to a non-tropical broad area of low pressure. Don’t let this fool you, however, some pretty hefty coastal impacts will continue, just far away from us in Central Florida.
Saying bon voyage to the hurricane that essentially characterized the month of August we quickly turn our attention to the next chess piece on the board that is the Atlantic basin.
Invest 90L was designated Thursday by the National Hurricane Center. Where we sit today, we were correct in our prediction that the formation chances would incrementally go up from there.
As of the 8 a.m. outlook from the NHC office, chances in the next two days are up to a whopping 80%, and seven-day chances are close to maxed out at 90%. The narrative in their discussion also mentions, a tropical depression could form at any time.
Computer models are in full agreement: we realize a tropical storm from this cluster of showers and storms. The satellite presentation isn’t the greatest to look at, but you can see a clear turning in your wind flow around the feature, suggesting a low-pressure center is already starting to show itself.
By Saturday, if not the latest Sunday, pending how the pocket of energy fares through the day Friday, I fully anticipate Fernand to be designated.
The meaty bits you have to remember at home - thanks to Erin’s slow and steady progress, it’s kept open a wonderful corridor of weakness in our Atlantic high-pressure ridging to allow this next storm to escape comfortably out to sea.
It should not influence the weather in our island neighbors of the Caribbean as much as Erin did either, because of this northward turn. It will move north and eventually back eastward much faster than Erin did.
Bermuda, however, could be in for some sporty weather as it approaches from the south.
I also want to briefly touch on 99L back behind 90L (I know, I know, there’s L’s and numbers flying around everywhere. That’s peak season for ya!)
While computer models are not jazzed about this second tropical disturbance at all, the trends have been very interesting to watch. This is a system that was supposed to have “poofed” this past Wednesday.
Yet it continues to hold its own as it works westward through the tropical Atlantic. Dry air does seem to be getting a hold of it today, as well as some upper-level wind shear helping to pick apart the once more organized clouds and storms.
But the National Hurricane Center has extended the formation zone a bit further westward towards the Lesser Antilles. If a weak batch of clouds and moisture can persist, the more it meanders into the Caribbean, it will find a better environment to maybe throw a Hail Mary down the field before August finishes up.
It’s a low potential for now, and we have several days to watch as it continues its voyage. But just something I wanted everyone to keep on their radar!