ORLANDO, Fla. – Despite the pretty immense evolutions we’ve witnessed across our neighboring oceans, it looks La Niña may be on the return.
A double-dipping of La Niña has happened in the past and while on the surface it may not look like its doing much, it actually does quite a number on the way our atmosphere behaves across the northern hemisphere.
Some notable years where we’ve gone through La Niña and back again include 1973 into 1974, 1983 to 1984, 2007 to 2008, 2016 into 2017, and finally 2020 into 2021. Why do I list these out? It almost seems like the pace with which these cooler-than-average waters rebound back and forth is increasing.
If you look closely at the numbers, they also seem to oscillate on a 10-12 year span. I am a FIRM believer in the weather operating under patterns and repetition. If you stick with me long enough, you’ll notice I always resort to these cycles when discussing our local weather or even large-scale weather across the globe.
But! Speculation aside, that’s not the point of this discussion today. I really want to delve a bit into what our winter time could look like, especially considering we’ve hit the point in the calendar year where Halloween decorations are going up left and right. It’s only a matter of time now.
With La Niña building up, this means a few things for Central Florida.
First and foremost, any bit of additional rain we get over the next month or two, whether it come in the form of sea breeze action, cold fronts or even tropical systems, we should take full advantage.
La Niña typically means we observe a drier winter season. A lot less rain tends to come to Central Florida as a result of what the cooler than average waters do to our jet stream pattern.
We’ve managed to bust right through the drought conditions that came together during last winter and spring. So hold on to your water as best as we can because that could come back around again as we move through the likes of December, January and February.
Alongside drying out, winter could be a little warmer than usual. I know that doesn’t say much for Florida’s standard, since our winter season is typically just a little less summer.
But in terms of overall temperatures, when we mention a warmer-than-average winter, that doesn’t rule out potential blasts of cold air from up north that do make the trip as far south as our area. We saw this last year on occasion, especially when the Florida Panhandle was buffeted by several inches of snow!
There is always a level of variability with weather, and that’s regardless of what level you try to scrutinize it from. The big picture pattern for our upcoming fall and winter may not behave like seasons depicted in your favorite Hollywood film.
Locally, Central Florida’s weather can be very dynamic and tends to pop off the chain on a recurring basis. We have our periods where things are tame and collected. But on the other end of the spectrum, we also know how quickly a bad situation can escalate.
If La Niña does take command of the northern hemisphere pattern to some extent, we’ll likely see another extended dry period during winter and into early spring.
A lot hinges on what a few of our other oscillations we monitor in the weather realm look like as we begin to wander into the tail end of 2025.
One caveat to all this is the anomalous warmth that has cranked up over the entirety of the north Pacific. I do believe some of this immense heating has also contributed to some of the hostile conditions observed across the tropics.
This could also influence what our winter pattern does for us Floridians in the near distant future.