ORLANDO, Fla. – We’ve hit the downward descent of the calendar year. From here on out, we’ve got lots of plans, festivities and holidays coming right at us. I, for one, believe we’re into the best part of the year.
With that being said, how does the weather look to cooperate for the next several weeks?
I fully believe we’ve got a little more to go before we hit the commencement of the dry season here in Florida. In fact, in just a couple more days, we’re faced with a very soggy and perhaps a heavy rain setup across the state.
Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto continue to head east away from us. Behind the strong counter-clockwise turning in their combined wind flow, we’re tugging down cooler, drier air in the form of a cold front.
There actually IS SOME COOLER AIR with this front as well.
Since, we’re talking about the jet stream being aided by these two simultaneous hurricanes in the western Atlantic, we’re able to yank down cooler air from up north. Unlike the previous front that came down, we saw more dry air and rain with it.
Temperatures will come down some and then, the flood gates will open Saturday through to early next week.
The front is going to get hung up over south-Central Florida, and then try to retrograde back north toward the Florida/Georgia line.
As it does so, winds will oscillate back and forth driving increased moisture in from the Atlantic. Strong, dominant high pressure will also reside to our north over the eastern U.S.
The southern flank of the high pressure provides us with easterly winds, working together with the stationary tail overhead to really emphasize a nice channeling of mid to upper level moisture.
This doesn’t look like a severe weather setup, but it’s a lot of water all at once.
That’s going to be the repetition we generally follow through October.
Weekly computer models suspect we’ll be above-average in rainfall as we traverse the month headed toward Halloween. I wish I could tell you whether it will be hot, muggy or rainy for your Halloween, but we have to get a little closer before we can get an accurate look.
High pressure seems to want to establish itself over the Mid-West and Appalachians well to our north, keeping neighboring states drier. But we’ll be in the optimal flank to drive tropical and subtropical moisture into our Sunshine state.
Temperatures will also feel a tad warmer-than-average because of this. We’ll have to track the progression of the jet stream and upcoming fronts to see if we can get out of that for small periods of time.
I also want to keep an eye on the tropics. We’ve hit the point in the hurricane season where the Deep Atlantic waters tend to close their doors. Tropical waves will try to meander off Africa, but it’s what could possibly spin-up close to home that could get us.
I will have a separate article with the full breakdown on that coming up VERY soon, so stick around!