ORLANDO, Fla. – Is the cool season about to get started in Central Florida?
Brevard, Volusia, and portions of Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties on Monday saw the threat for flooding. A flash flood warning was issued for Brevard County when the heaviest downpours were roaring through during the first half of the day.
Tuesday is a much different picture, and Wednesday will get even better as dry air is introduced above us in the mid-levels of our atmosphere.
But then, it gets even better by this weekend. Talk about a turn around right? We had to endure one weekend of gloomy, rainy conditions but the reward is coming right up.
As the jet digs in from up north across our area and much of the southeast, we’ll see an area of low pressure start to spin off our coast. No worries here, however, this won’t be tropical in nature.
This is actually the mechanism we’re watching for that will help tug down some cooler and drier air already coming into place north of us for our neighbors in the Mid-West, Appalachians, and Northeast U.S.
As this system strengthens and begins to ride the jet toward the northeast, it will help pull on the colder airmass north of us and bring it down south. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 80s during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday.
Morning lows might have us waking up in the low-to-mid 60s!
That’s where things get a little tricky though. Our computer models are a little torn on the intensity and the track of this low pressure system. Some ensemble models actually suggest it could try to develop tropical characteristics since it will hug the Gulf stream current against the eastern seaboard of the country.
Regardless, cooler temps are coming.
The European model suggests a stronger, more robust low pressure system. This results in cooler temperatures than projected by say, the American model. The Euro keeps Orlando from even reaching 80 degrees Sunday afternoon.
If we don’t drop that low, either way we’ll see an introduction of some very dry air coming down across the peninsula, which will help our daytime and overnight temperatures actually FEEL like fall.
We’re almost to the start of our cool season, which typically occurs in about another week or two. On average, Central Florida begins to cool down between Oct. 16 to Oct. 23. This brief intro could be a nice change of pace for everyone, with more cold air coming down the pike.
This should also keep things fairly tame to the south in the Gulf and the Caribbean especially where we’ll usually watch for upcoming tropical development.